In August of 2005, Dr. Oleg Kiselyov bravely predicted that a bird flu outbreak in Russia would fade away in two weeks:
A senior World Health Organization official said the bird flu epidemic in Russia will "die down completely in 10 to 15 days," and that bird flu vaccine for humans will start being tested in September and might come into use in October.
"Anti-epidemic measures have localized the [bird flu] outbreak," and recent weather changes will help localize the disease, Oleg Kiselyov, head of the WHO National Influenza Center, told a news conference in St. Petersburg. (Interfax, our pull quote here but link elapsed)
Let's just say that didn't exactly work out. By November 2005 there were five infected areas and more to come. This week still more bird flu in Russia. There are eight outbreaks around Moscow alone. Since the Kiselyov prognostication, over 100. But that hasn't stopped other intrepid Kiselyovniks:
An outbreak of bird flu at eight Moscow region sites, five of which have been confirmed to have the deadly H5N1 virus, will be over within two weeks, a top veterinary official said Thursday.
Each of the sites has been quarantined for 21 days, which will "guarantee that the virus, which may still be on some external objects, will not be spread," news agency ITAR-TASS cited Nikolai Vlasov as saying.
The outbreak of bird flu near Moscow began late last week -- the first time the virus has reached the outskirts of the capital that holds 10 million residents. (via Yahoo)
Pundits are now calling the time interval of 6 months a "Friedman" because periodically over the last four years of the War in Iraq New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman (or some exchangeable peddler of conventional wisdom) would announce "the next 6t months will be critical."
I propose we call the time interval of two weeks a "Kiselyov." Same idea.
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yeah - that sort of thing is always amusing. Additionally one can say that the next election will be critical and country "X" is key or strategic for U.S. policy (oddly enough the dispensers of convention wisdom never did say that a given country was irrelevant so who gives a damn).
Carl--
" the dispensers of convention wisdom never did say that a given country was irrelevant so who gives a damn"
ROFL! Thank you so much, I needed that!
Kiselyov.
As in...
If you follow the U.S. government's advice to stockpile food and water for Kiselyov, you might as well Kiselyourbuttgoodbye.
and, Nancy wins the 20lb block of virtual chocolate!
Seaking about epidemic is confusing and disturbing when actually speaking about epizootic. Just an opinion. Thanks for an otherwise good text.
You're stretching me revere, now I've gotta remember Kiselyov and what it implies.
Gads, my bulletin board is so full of stuff now I can't find what I'm looking for.
Here is a request for Revere, from the following a blogger on our site, related to the above- JM
http://birdflunewsflash.wordpress.com/
Today we hear that Britain suffered a major train derailment and that the authorities are investigating it.Well I wish them more success in this venture than they had with their latest bird flu fiasco.We continually knock the likes of Indonesia and China for their ineptitude and corruption but I am beginning to realise that so called "first world" countries do little better when big,people worrying issues rear their heads.If this infernal flu goes H2H we will be no better off than a poor villager in the arse-end of nowhere.
I propose we call the time interval of two weeks a "Kiselyov." Same idea.
And when government officials are asked when avian flu might go pandemic, and they reply confidently, "Never!", perhaps we could refer to that interval as a "Lysenko".
--
"a poor villager" will have a fair amount of (poor) food socked away, plus prospects for hunting and gathering. If they are "in the arse-end of nowhere", they will probably be safe from starving city dwellers.
They might even be far away enough to miss the initial lethal virus strains.