I admit it's a paradox, but I can't help myself. Whenever I hear that a high government official has debunked claims of a human case of bird flu, my first thought: "Oh, shit. Another case."
The minister of information and communications, Frank Nweke Jnr., has debunked claims that there was any other human case of avian influenza reported in Nigeria since the beginning of the year.
The minister, quoted in a news bulletin from the Avian Influenza Crisis Management Centre, Abuja, and released on Thursday, noted that the "multi-Sectoral Steering Committee on the Management of Avian Influenza in Nigeria wishes to reassure the public that there is no new human case of Avian Influenza (HPAI H5N1) commonly called Bird Flu in Lagos State or anywhere else in Nigeria as speculated in some sections of the press."
According to the minister, "a fortnight ago, a 52-year old male living in Lagos , was admitted into a hospital after suffering from respiratory problems. He was tested for the H5N1 virus and after an exhaustive laboratory analysis by a team of experts at the Asokoro Reference Laboratory, Abuja , the result was negative. (The Guardian)
What's wrong with the statement? If it's true, then it's perfectly appropriate. So I tried to put my finger on why it seems more like a warning flag rather than reassurance. Here are some elements:
- It comes from the minister of information and communications. I assume that in Nigeria, like in the US, this post is occupied by a professional liar. Not fair, I'm sure. But there you have it.
- The claim is sweeping: "there is no new human case of Avian Influenza (HPAI H5N1) commonly called Bird Flu in Lagos State or anywhere else in Nigeria..." He has no way of knowing this, especially in Nigeria, a large country with poor surveillance, health services and diagnostic resources.
- ". . . as speculated in some secitons of the press." Warning bells. People are reporting this. Could be just rumors, but how often have we seen . . .
- The use of the word "debunked" has a rhetorical quality to it that seems both contemptuous and desperate at the same time, quite a feat. And not reassuring.
- The specifics indicate there was some substance to this. There was an actual, plausible case. The reference to an exhaustive analysis by a team of experts is too general. Were specimens sent to a properly equipped reference laboratory?
There seems to be a lot of bird flu in poultry in Nigeria, so I wouldn't be surprised to hear of more human cases there. There is a categorical and arrogant quality to this denial which makes me uncomfortable. At the very least they need some instruction in risk communication.
Or maybe communication isn't the object here.
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It seems to me that one important question to be answered is...
How accurate are the current survelliance tests?
Are they more or less accurate then they were four years ago?
Can the evolution of H5N1 outstrip the accuracy of testing procedures?
Frank Nweke Jnr has a way to go to top
the guy from China who insisted there has never yet been
a case of h-h H5N1 in China, nor anywhere in the world!
(so there!)
"Whenever I hear that a high government official has debunked claims of a human case of bird flu, my first thought: "Oh, shit. Another case.""
And you're probably correct to do so.
Analogous situation: I lived in Mexico for many years. The price of certain basic commodities is closely regulated by the government. Every so often, there would be an official announcement; "The rumour that the price of sugar (corn, rice, whatever) will be going up is absolutely false."
I would immediately go out and buy several months' supply of the staple in question. My disbelief was never shown to be wrong. Not once.
See, its the business of all governments to lie to you.
Randy: So why did you believe them about Iraq?
Susannah's instincts are spot on.
As for myself, whenever I read an ex cathedra pronouncement from something called "the multi-Sectoral Steering Committee on the Management of __________", I instantly direct that information to the waste bin. Quite irregardless of what may be in the blank field.
Hey, Paul Wolfowitz recently used his seat in the presidency of the World Bank to steer his girlfriend into a plum consulting job wherein she was paid $190,000 per annum, tax free, to do nothing in particular.
Perhaps she could next be delegated as the Special Assistant Deputy Liaison to the Multi-Sectoral Steering Committee on the Management of Nonexistent Nigerian Avian Influenza. I'm sure that would be worth $250K p.a. tax-free, simply on the basis of the number of syllables in the title.
This while genuine and effectual public health initiatives molder. Where is Jonathan Swift when we need him most?
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Honorable Sir/Madam,
I am the uncle, of the next door neighbor of the respected senior manager, in the office of Frank Nweke Jnr, the minister of information and communications, in the Government of Nigeria.
I have in my possession the documents showing the real number of the people infected with the Bird Flu in Nigeria.
I would be happy to pass these documents over to your esteemed selves, at the world famous Effect Measure.
I would also like to donate some money to the wonderful work that you are doing.
I would therefore request that you send to me your bank and credit card details, so that I can transfer this money to you for you in order to help you with your wonderful work.
I am yours sincerely
Ubutu Nagorha
Ex Army Colonel
Dear Ubutu: You didn't think I'd fall for that, did you? If I send you my bank info you could use it to download songs from iTunes. Anyway, I don't need the money. I was just notified I won the Irish Sweepstakes. I don't even remember entering it.
Ah! That would be my cousin Zaminu Nagorha, from the Irish side of the family.
You are in good hands I can assure you:)
Ubutu Nagorha
Hey Ubutu. You think you can get those folks to quit sending me the Nigerian scam thing? I might pay you for that since it burns up my fax from the NNPC, and the Central Bank of Nigeria and it costs money.
.
Then there is the conscience thing.... Mary Winkler of Somerville is on trial now for the murder of her preacher husband who got caught up in one of those deals and ruined their lives. Lots of people get hooked into it but not so much any longer. Every wonder why everyone wants to puke when the name Nigeria is mentioned? Nigeria ruled central africa until Shaka, time to be great again Ubutu. Get a real job slick.