2008 Election
nisbetmc | October 3, 2008
According to Nielsen, close to 70 million Americans tuned in to watch the Biden-Palin debate. For comparison, the 2004 vice presidential debate between V.P. Dick Cheney and Sen. John Edwards drew 43.6 million viewers. The second Bush/Clinton/Perot debate of 1992 also attracted 69.9 million viewers. The all-time debate leader is the Carter/Reagan debate of 1980.
In a CBS News web poll of uncommitted voters who agreed to watch the debate, 46 percent said they believed Biden won the debate, compared to 21 percent for Palin, and 33 percent who were undecided.
In a CNN survey of people who had…
nisbetmc | October 2, 2008
More people are following the nation's economic problems than almost any other public event over the past two decades. According to Pew, the percentage of Americans who say they are following the economic conditions "very closely" trails significantly only the 9/11 attacks and the Challenger disaster, among major news events.
nisbetmc | September 26, 2008The Dartmouth investment banker and the Princeton professor.
It would be interesting to trace the origin of the term "bailout" as applied to the Bush administration's plan since the phrase has locked in a specific framing of the issue that inflames populist anger and caters to House Republicans' efforts to exploit the situation for political gain.
Of course, a "bailout" is not how an economist is likely to view or describe the proposal. An alternative description unlocks a very different perception and understanding. The bailout triggers thoughts rescuing individual wealthy bankers who got…
nisbetmc | September 25, 2008Bush-Gore Debates 2000: The focus was on performance rather than substance.
For those that have seen the Nisbet/Mooney Speaking Science 2.0 talks over the past year, you might have witnessed during the Q&A some disagreement over the merits of actually having the presidential candidates participate in a "Science Debate."
As I have said at these talks, I think the goal of raising the profile of science and environmental policy in the presidential election is a good one, it's just that I have doubts about whether or not pushing for an actual debate between the candidates is the right…
nisbetmc | September 25, 2008The TV networks are still a very powerful constituency and it's doubtful McCain will be a no-show unless the political advantages are absolutely clear. Even Fox News is going to be pissed about this one. From the LA Times:
The prospect of postponing Friday's debate rankled network executives, who have invested substantial resources in the infrastructure needed to carry the event live. Finding another block of TV time would be difficult. The coming month is crowded with fall television premiers, National Football League games and Major League Baseball playoffs.
"Every network in America has…
nisbetmc | September 23, 2008
As I wrote earlier today, how Sarah Palin's devout Pentecostal faith colors her views on complex policy problems such as Iraq or climate change is a relevant question that journalists should be asking.
Yet as a Pew analysis released this week finds, although Palin has dominated campaign coverage since the GOP convention (top), few if any stories in the mainstream media have examined the relevancy of her religious faith (bottom). The exception, as Pew observes, is the Evangelical media, which have triumphantly celebrated one of their own ascending to a place on the GOP ticket.
For example,…
nisbetmc | September 23, 2008
In another example of the strategic role that YouTube is playing in this year's election, the Huffington Post has linked to a video montage of McCain's pleas over the past year for the wisdom and need for greater deregulation. With the growth of the leftwing blogosphere, the continued prominence of The Drudge Report, and other direct media outlets such as YouTube, non-traditional media and individual citizens are now actively participating in the vetting process of candidate claims.
In this particular case, expect to see a lot more of these past McCain statements in political advertising and…
nisbetmc | September 23, 2008At the WPost, Juliet Eilperin pens a lengthy feature on the differences between Palin and McCain over the causes of global warming. Palin believes that the effects of climate change are impacting Alaska and has advocated for action, but continues to hedge on whether or not humans are a cause. McCain, on the other hand, believes that "the science of man made global warming has really been proven."
Palin's rejection of scientific consensus may simply be politically strategic, playing to a conservative base, or she may be victim to the counter-framing of climate skeptics. Either way, Palin's…
nisbetmc | September 22, 2008AP report on an innovative survey by researchers at Stanford University:
Deep-seated racial misgivings could cost Barack Obama the White House if the election is close, according to an AP-Yahoo News poll that found one-third of white Democrats harbor negative views toward blacks -- many calling them "lazy," "violent," responsible for their own troubles. The poll, conducted with Stanford University, suggests that the percentage of voters who may turn away from Obama because of his race could easily be larger than the final difference between the candidates in 2004 -- about two and one-half…
nisbetmc | September 22, 2008Voters not yet committed to either candidate were 12% more engaged by TV coverage of the GOP convention than the Democratic convention, according to an analysis released Monday by Nielsen IAG.
nisbetmc | September 20, 2008From the NY Times Caucus Politics Blog:
In the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll, 63 percent of voters said they were paying a lot of attention to the campaign, up from 51 percent before the parties held their conventions. In September 2004, 52 percent said they were concentrating a lot on Senator John Kerry's campaign to defeat President Bush.
The findings are borne out by television ratings: Nielsen estimates nearly two-thirds of the country's households -- more than 120 million people -- watched at least one of the conventions. The 15 percent of homes that tuned in only to the Republican…
nisbetmc | September 19, 2008
Global warming and the environment are dead last among the criteria that voters are using to evaluate the presidential candidates, according to a recent Gallup survey.
When asked in an open-ended question "What would you say are the one or two most important reasons why you would vote for [preferred candidate]" or the candidate the respondent might be leaning towards, thirty-seven percent of Obama's supporters give "change" as the reason for their support. McCain supporters are most likely to explain their vote with references to McCain's experience and qualifications. As I've written…
nisbetmc | September 19, 2008
While many Democrats and women find Palin's support for criminalizing abortion to be outrageous, a recent survey by the Pew organization finds that roughly 40% of Americans generally agree with her views.
Combined, 41% of Americans answer that abortion should be outlawed in either in all cases (15%) or most cases (26%). Among White evangelicals, who Pew measures at roughly 30% of the American public, this support shoots up to a combined 62% (19% all cases, 43% most cases).
UPDATE: One problem in comparing this poll to Palin's specific views is the unclear nature of what counts as "most…
nisbetmc | September 18, 2008
That's the question posed this past week at PBS' Bill Moyers Journal. The program is a hard hitting examination of the impact of radical right talk radio, books, and TV shows not just on the nature of political discourse but also their link to violent actions against elected officials and fellow citizens.
When Glenn Beck says: "I'm thinking about killing Michael Moore and I'm wondering if I could kill him myself, or if I would need to hire somebody to do it," is it just harmless rhetoric or something more?
When Michael Reagan says that 9/11 deniers should be taken out and shot, is that…
nisbetmc | September 17, 2008Expect to hear a lot about this from the Obama campaign over the next few weeks.
See the front page article at today's Washington Post, detailing McCain's reaction to the Wall Street bailout. As the article reports, before McCain was for regulation and "reforming Wall Street," he was a leader against it.
In 2007, he told a group of bloggers on a conference call that he regretted his vote on the Sarbanes-Oxley bill, which has been castigated by many executives as too heavy-handed.
In the 1990s, he backed an unsuccessful effort to create a moratorium on all new government regulation. And in…
nisbetmc | September 16, 2008"Grandpa" McCain?: The presidential hopeful relies on his wife and aides to show him things online or to read him email messages.
As I've written, McCain's admission that he doesn't know how to use the Internet or a computer has helped feed the Obama campaign's narrative that the GOP candidate is out of touch with average Americans. It's a framing strategy that you can bet McCain's campaign advisers are more than sensitive about.
Today, the Associated Press reports that one such adviser has gone so far as to present McCain as a creator of the BlackBerry. From the AP:
MIAMI (AP) -- Move over…
nisbetmc | September 15, 2008Over at the Daily Kos, University of Washington communication professor David Domke issues a bold call to news organizations. Warning that the McCain-Palin campaign represents a "crisis for mainstream journalists," Domke urges news organizations to not back down from vetting the claims and accusations of the GOP message machine.
In drawing parallels to the build up to the decision to go to war in Iraq, Domke writes:
For weeks McCain and surrogates have said things that have been declared false across the political spectrum (even Karl Rove made this point, on Fox News, on Sunday). In just the…
nisbetmc | September 12, 2008From a press release out today, detailing the strong commitment from both parties to biomedical research.
Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology
Office of Public Affairs ⢠9650 Rockville Pike, Bethesda, Md. 20814-3998 ⢠http://opa.faseb.org/
Contact: Carrie D. Wolinetz, PhD
(301) 634-7650cwolinetz@faseb.org
FASEB APPLAUDS RNC, DNC PLATFORM COMMITTEES FOR
SUPPORT OF BIOMEDICAL RESEARCH
Bethesda, MD - Amid the partisan volleys launched from Denver and St. Paul these last few weeks, party platforms emerged that agreed, strikingly, on one issue: the importance of…
nisbetmc | September 12, 2008Alaskan Governor Sarah Palin might dispute the human contribution to climate change, oppose embryonic stem cell research, and promote creationism, but in other ways she has been an advocate for science. As I wrote last week, while on a few issues bi-partisan support for science breaks down, on other issues, including financing for scientific research, many Republicans are leading advocates.
Palin, for example, as Governor championed several earmarks requests to fund environmental research in her state. From the Politico:
Many others, though, are of exactly the sort that McCain has made a…
nisbetmc | September 12, 2008From the Associated Press:
On Friday, a McCain radio ad attempted to present McCain and Palin as a unified force behind stem cell research. In fact, McCain supports relaxing federal restrictions on financing of embryonic stem cell research, a position opposed by abortion opponents. Palin opposes embryonic stem cell research.
The ad, however, does not mention the word embryonic, making it correct on its face. Supporters and critics of using stem cells from embryos do support research using adult stem cells to help conquer some diseases.
This type of advertising sleight of hand works because,…