Ebola
gregladen | August 27, 2014We can now be pretty sure that the Ebola outbreak in the DR Congo is not an extension of the West African outbreak. The index case seems to have gotten the disease from a mammal she butchered, and the numerous other cases seem to stem from contact with her primary as health care workers and family members. I don't think we have enough information yet to assess this outbreak vis-a-vis the genetics of the Ebola itself.
From WHO:
On 26 August 2014, the Ministry of Health, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) notified the World Health Organization (WHO) of an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (…
gregladen | August 25, 2014The number of people known or suspected to be infected with Ebola in the West African outbreak is increasing, and the rate at which it is increasing is increasing. About 40 new cases are being reported per day on average, but the number of new cases has been going up by a few a day.
However, it is still unclear that these numbers represent what is actually happening on the ground. There is little confidence that the WHO has a good idea of who is currently stricken with the disease, and efforts to contain those who are have had mixed results.
A second outbreak is now occurring in the DR…
gregladen | August 12, 2014New for August 16th
I will try to keep new information and updates in the same post for a while until I have a chance to do a comprehensive re-overview of everything.
The 16 August update from WHO indicates a large uptick in the daily number of cases. Over the two days of the most recent reporting period an average of 76 cases per day have been identified as confirmed, probable, or suspect, with a total of 76 deaths over that period of time.
Good news is that the situation in Nigeria doesn't seem to be developing. There were no new cases over the this reporting period, and one death.…
gregladen | August 6, 2014It is probably safe to say that Nigeria now has an outbreak, as a handful of cases contracted in country seem to have been reported, though it is too early to be sure this will stick. Hopefully it won't.
There is also one suspected case, a death, in Saudi Arabia, of someone who would have caught it in Liberia.
The number of new cases per unit time seems to have increased, or at least, stayed high as it has been for the last several days. The following chart based on WHO data shows the cumulative number of cases and deaths, including probable, suspected, and confirmed, as per WHO reports…
gregladen | August 4, 2014The WHO came out with a new report today with the latest figures on Ebola. These numbers take us to the end of July. There are two bits of bad news.
First, the number of new cases is high, as high as any prior report (but keep in mind that these reports cover uneven time periods). There are 163 new cases and 61 new deaths, bringing the total number of confirmed cases and deaths to 1009 and 574, with the total number of confirmed, probable, and suspected to 1,603 cases and 887 deaths.
Second, Nigeria is now in the mix. There was previously only one case in Nigeria, a Liberian man who…
gregladen | August 4, 2014LATEST UPDATE HERE ... new numbers just in from WHO, and they are bad.
I had suspected this might be the case. Disease like Ebola are potentially easily cured using serum. Here's the idea. Someone gets the disease and survives, and their body now produces products that give them an immunity. So, you take a bunch of their blood, clean it up as best you can, and inject the serum (the cleaned up blood, to oversimplify) with these immune products, in to a person with the disease. That stops the disease, at least some of the time. The early history of the discovery of many nasty viruses…
gregladen | August 2, 2014LATEST UPDATE HERE
It is true that this particular outbreak of Ebola has taken health officials somewhat by surprise. It is impossible to know, but I suspect that if you had asked a few ebola experts, a year ago, if there could be an epidemic that would spread across three or four countries, infect a couple thousand people, and last with no sign of letting up for a few months (that is the current situation, more or less), most would say no, probably not, though it is within the range of possibilities. Does the fact (assuming it is true) that this particular Ebola outbreak is unprecedented…
gregladen | July 27, 2014LATEST UPDATE HERE
UPDATE: The latest numbers do not indicate a weakening of the outbreak. (See list of new cases below. Several graphs have been updated as well)
UPDATE: More detailed discussion of transmission of Ebola
UPDATE: I note with sadness the death of my neighbor (though I did not know him) of Patrick Sawyer, of the Liberian Ministry of Finance, who died in Nigeria of Ebola contracted in Liberia. He was on his way home to Minnesota at the time.
There is an Ebola Outbreak currently underway in several West African countries, mainly Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. This is the…