Hiatus
gregladen | February 24, 2016A new paper (commentary) on the so-called "pause in global warming" puts it all together.
First let's establish this as a starting point. When climate science contrarians refer to a "pause" or "hiatus" in global warming, they usually mean that the process of warming of the Earth's surface caused by the human release of greenhouse gas is not a thing. They are usually implying, or overtly claiming, that the link between CO2 and other greenhouse gas pollutants and surface warming was never there to begin with, and previous warming, warming before "the pause," was natural variation. Many even…
gregladen | November 26, 2015You've heard much about the so-called "pause" or "hiatus" in global warming.
One of the implications of a multi-year "pause" in global warming is that the science of global warming must be somehow wrong, because with CO2 rising in atmosphere, due to human activity, how can the surface not warm? However, surface temperatures have been rising, but at a somewhat slower rate than at some other times.
The truth is that there is a lot of variation in that upward trending surface temperature value, measured as an anomaly above expected temperatures. Sometimes the variation pushes the rate of…
gregladen | September 18, 2015We drove north for two days, to arrive at a place that existed almost entirely for one reason: To facilitate the capture and, often, consumption of wild fish. The folks who run the facility make a living providing shelter, food, boats, fishing tackle, easy access to a fishing license, and they can be hired as guides. The whole point is to locate, capture, butcher, cook, and eat the fish. The fish themselves have little say in the matter.
And while talking to the people there we got a lot of advice as to how to find and capture the fish, and offers were made to assist with the butchering and…
gregladen | August 4, 2015There are two new scientific research papers looking at variation over the last century or so in global warming. One paper looks at the march of annual estimates of global surface temperature (air over the land plus sea surface, not ocean), and applies a well established statistical technique to ask the question: Was there a pause in global warming some time over the last couple of decades, as claimed by some?
The answer is, no, there wasn’t.
The paper is open access, is very clearly written so it speaks for itself, and is available here. One of the authors has a blog post here, in German…
milhayser | June 16, 2015Climate change denialists are apt to grasp at straws, which may explain their heralding of a global warming "hiatus" or "pause" that since 1998 has supposedly invalidated scientific consensus and its models of climate change. Clearer and more clever heads have renamed the hiatus a "faux pause," playing off the French faux pas which means false step or blunder. For one thing, the data showed only a relative slowdown in warming, not a pause; temperatures were still increasing. As Greg Laden says, "a hiatus or a pause in global warming is at present physically impossible." Now a new paper…
gregladen | May 6, 2015The Earth's climate is warming. The upper oceans are warming, the sea surface temperatures are elevated, the air in the lower Troposphere, where we live, is warming. This warming is caused almost entirely by the increase in human generated greenhouse gasses and the positive (not positive in a good way) feedbacks caused by that. The effects that increase the global heat imbalance and the effects that decrease it (such as greenhouse gas increase and aerosols -- dust -- from volcanoes, respectively) vary over time in their effect, which causes some variation in the upward march of global…
gregladen | April 29, 2015I recently posted an overview of a new climate study, Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise, by Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero & Steven A. Mauget. That study is potentially important because of what it says about how to interpret the available data on global warming caused by human generated greenhouse gas pollution. Also, the since publication the study has been rather abused by climate contrarians who chose to interpret it very inaccurately. This is addressed in this item by Media Matters.
My…
gregladen | October 22, 2014Some time in the 1970s.
I keep hearing about this 17 year long pause in global warming. So I went and looked. I did a regression analysis of the last 17 full years of surface temperatures from the GISS database. There is an upward trend in warming during this period and it is statistically significant.
Then I calculated a "running slope" over 17 year long periods from the beginning of the record (plus 8 years) to the end of the record (minus 8 years). For each slope I tested to see if the slope was less than +0.1 (the average slope across the record is 0.75). If a year centered on any…
gregladen | June 7, 2014Just a quick item on the pause in global warming that is said to have happened over the last X number of years. I took NOAA's instrumental record since the late 19th century and calculated the average deviation for "surface" temperatures from a baseline for the entire period. Surface temperatures refer to the lower part of the atmosphere and sea surfaces. When you look at a graph of "global warming" expressed in temperatures, this is almost always what is meant (this leaves out a lot of things, including the poles, much of Africa, and deeper ocean waters). But it is a standard and a fairly…
gregladen | May 8, 2014The weatherologists have more or less stopped saying there might be an El Niño this year. Now they are saying there will be an El Niño, and they are starting to consider how strong it will be. Well, actually, they've stopped doing that too and are now talking about whether it will be a mondo-El Niño or a mondo-mondo-El Niño.
Here is a newly released video by Peter Sinclair and the Yale Climate Forum about the coming El Niño:
I have a prediction to make. First a bit of background.
You know about the so-called "hiatus" in global warming, because every Tea Partier with a mouth is yammering…
gregladen | April 8, 2014It is said that global warming has taken a break over the last decade or so. This is not true. Surface temperatures (air, sea surface, and ice) have increased over this period of time, though less so than previous years. Also, there are various indicators that the coming year or so may be extra warm, depending on what happens in the Pacific Ocean. Perhaps more importantly, deep sea temperatures seem to have gone up, and since most of the effects of anthropogenic global warming are seen in the ocean (over 90% of the extra heat goes there), changes in the rate of global warming at the surface…
gregladen | January 26, 2014First, there is no hiatus. Climate science skeptics claim that warming stopped in 1998. It didn't. Stefan Rahmstorf has a nice post placing 2013 in context with the most recent data, HERE. Just click the "translate" button to read it in your favorite language.
UPDATE: Stefan's post is now HERE on Real Climate, in English.
Stefan has a bunch of great graphics that you will enjoy. Following his lead I've decided to make a graphic or two myself.
First, the data. NASA has this data to which people often refer when discussing global warming. I took that database and fixed it up a bit. I…
gregladen | July 16, 2013No. Here's a handy graphic for you to enjoy and share, courtesy of Climate Nexus.
Also, you might want to ask the question: What has global warming done since 1998?
That question is addressed HERE, where this handy graphic is available showing the importance of ocean warming:
So, has global warming stopped? No, I'm afraid not.
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Other posts of interest:
How to get rid of spiders in your house
Why is your poop green?
How many cells are there in the human body?
Is there really a plot hole in Harry Potter Goblet of Fire?
How long is a human generation?
Is blog ever really blue?
How to…
gregladen | June 24, 2013A few climate change related items I know you will be interested in, especially since you will want to be very current for the big event Tuesday.
There is now a new profession: Extreme Weather Architect. (Hat tip: Paul Douglas)
You may hear again and again that climate change is over, that warming has stopped. This is wrong in many many ways, and I've written about that here. Dana Nuccitelli has this important piece as well: We haven't hit the global warming pause button. Also, see this brand new item for a detailed discussion of how surface warming varies across time.
You've heard of the…
esiegel | August 31, 2012"The time will not be taken from the sum of your life. Instead of shortening it, it will indefinitely lengthen it and make you truly immortal. Nevermore will time seem short or long, and cares will never again fall heavily on you, but gently and kindly as gifts from heaven." -John Muir, on Glacier National Park
It's always hard to tear yourself away from your day-to-day life, from the things you work hard at building, and remember that there's a whole wide world -- and a whole Universe -- to experience and enjoy. Perhaps the best times in my life involve going off to explore some new and, at…