projections
illconsidered | May 1, 2012Real Climate has done two posts recently that I thought would be served well by their juxtaposition. The first one highlights an early projection of global mean temperatures made by Jim Hansen in 1981.
The abstract for that paper contains this choice quote:
It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's.
These are both things that have in fact happened. I think it is safe to call this a very successful early prediction of…
illconsidered | April 26, 2006This is just one of dozens of responses to common climate change denial arguments, which can all be found at How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic.
Objection:
In 1988 Hansen predicted dire warming over the next decade and he was off by 300%. Why in the world should we listen to the same doom and gloom from him today?
Answer:
While it may well be simply ignorant repetition of misinformation in some instances, at its source, this story is a plain and simple lie.
In 1988, James Hansen testified before the US Senate on the danger of Anthropogenic Global Warming. As part of that testimony he presented…
illconsidered | March 26, 2006This is just one of dozens of responses to common climate change denial arguments, which can all be found at How to Talk to a Climate Sceptic.
Objection:
Scientists can't even predict the weather next week, so why should we believe what some climate model tells us about 100 years from now?
Answer:
Climate and weather are really very different things and the level of predictability is comparably different. Climate is defined as weather averaged over a period of time, generally around 30 years. This averaging over time removes the random and unpredictable behaviour of weather. Think of it as…