Nate Silver of 538 finds that votes for healthcare and TARP had a major effect on the election results, but votes for the climate bill and the stimulus didn't have much impact, if any. Nate used another methodology than what others have used, and got the same basic result.
- Log in to post comments
More like this
Eric McGhee at The Monkey Cage – a real political scientist who does these sorts of statistical analyses for a living – has done a nice post looking at the 2010 election results, and the effects of the votes for TARP, healthcare, the stimulus, and climate change, on Democrat's electoral prospects.…
There's been some debate among the climate hawks about last night's election returns. Politico posted a story suggesting that the toll was especially hard on Democrats who supported the landmark climate change legislation passed by the House last summer. Kate Sheppard observed that quite a few of…
Since I posted my statistical analysis showing that voting for a climate bill didn't have a statistically significant effect on Democratic electoral success, two other independent analyses have come to roughly the same conclusion. My model found a statistically insignificant effect from climate…
Now that we've apparently elected Nate Silver the President of Science, this is some predictable grumbling about whether he's been overhyped. If you've somehow missed the whole thing, Jennifer Ouellette offers an excellent summary of the FiveThirtyEight saga, with lots of links, but the Inigo…