uncommon cold

WebMD stirred up the news recently when they drew attention to recent fatal cases of the common cold.

Specifically, the CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report feature on Ad 14

Adenovirus is one of the common respiratory viruses that cause the "common cold" (which is really a catch all for generic symptoms caused by several different viral infections).
Or, if you prefer, it causes "'flu like symptoms", which are not at all, typically, like actual influenza symptoms, which tend to be a lot more severe than most people think when they "come down with "the 'flu".

There are about 50 strains (serotypes) of adenoviruses, and the current culprit is, apparently, a mutant version of strain 14.
Ah, good old strain 14.

Ok, I'd never heard of strain 14 till today.
And it may not be a mutant, as such, just different...

So, the good news: only 141 confirmed cases.
The Bad News: 10 deaths - including "otherwise healthy individuals"

That is The Scary Bit.

Respiratory viruses are killers, through pneumonia if nothing else, but they tend to hit those who are already ill the worst. In particular, bed ridden patients with pre-existing serious conditions, who often cannot sit up and clear their lungs of fluid. So they drown in their beds in their own fluids.

Four outbreaks, so far.
Most recently at a Texas Air Force base.
Those of us who remember history get queasy when respiratory illnesses with high mortality break out in armed forces barracks.

Now, some people are known to have got it, and not got sick - they are immune positive but didn't get hospitalized (like some healthworkers tested for exposure).
So it doesn't make everyone sick, duh.
We don't know why, or when, some get sick and some don't. Maybe genetic susceptibilty, maybe environmental factors, maybe the Noodly Appendages.

Here is the CDC header: In May 2006, an infant in New York aged 12 days died from respiratory illness caused by Ad14. During March--June 2007, a total of 140 additional cases of confirmed Ad14 respiratory illness were identified in clusters of patients in Oregon, Washington, and Texas. Fifty-three (38%) of these patients were hospitalized, including 24 (17%) who were admitted to intensive care units (ICUs); nine (5%) patients died. Ad14 isolates from all four states were identical by sequence data from the full hexon and fiber genes. However, the isolates were distinct from the Ad14 reference strain from 1955, suggesting the emergence and spread of a new Ad14 variant in the United States.

So, it is nasty, the index case is known, it is spreading, but transmission path is unknown.

Adenovirus spreads easily, and persists robustly outside the human body.
It spreads like a virus, in fact.

Reading between the lines, the Air Force base has had a few hundred cases of "boot camp 'flu" since June, since the rate went from 74 per week at the start of June to 55 per week at the end of September, I infer none of those died, which would change the statistics drastically. If the death rate were the same, some tens of airmen would have died, whereas news reports are that only one recruit died. I also infer they didn't continue checking the viral strain at Lackland Air Force Base after they had lots confirmed.

7% mortality is shit scary.
Because it is the sort of illness that millions of people could get, IF it breaks out into the general population on a large scale.
And, that is with intensive care - if a lot of people get sick all at the same time, then most of them will not get intensive care, which potentially makes it worse.

No need to panic, yet.
I mean it is not like we're coming up on high travel weeks, maximally efficient for spreading highly contagious viruses, or heading into 'flu season... oh, panic?
Nah, not yet.
But keep an eye on this one, and wash your hands often and well.
And, whatever you do, don't sneeze in my direction.