more random thoughts on iran
Nuclear Mangos has a summary of the summaries on Iran and the NIE
So, it appears that the White House doesn't know when it knew about Iran.
It also appears that the key intelligence leading the US to conclude the Iranians do not actually have such a program was a combination of a major defection in the last year, and UK signals intelligence confirming his story.
So... presumably, if all this is kosher, and the paranoid wing in Israel is despairing that the whole thing is a setup and the US has been spoofed, but then Iran knew exactly when the US knew that there was no nuclear program.
So, the US may not have known it knew, but Iran knew that the US knew.
Back then.
Interestingly, this period coincides with the Iranians openly mocking the US foreign policy assertions, while simultaneously avoiding all actual confrontation.
In particular, this is the timeframe when Sadr went to Iran for consultation and then ordered his militia to stand down and observe a ceasefire with US forces, and the other Badr militia is pro-iranian but allied with the Iraqi government.
Whether the Iranian defection that leaked the info on the nuclear program is genuine or not, it looks like the Iranians played the US.
Dangerous brinkmanship, since the US bluster could have lead to actual war, which would have been not good for either party.
Big question now is what a weak but paranoid Israeli government does. They could unilaterally pre-empt, particularly if Bushehr is going to be fueled in the spring, which would really kick the bucket over.
Oh, and Sarkozy must be feeling like a real mug right now.
How did the French press spin the US revelations?
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