sendeth rain on the just and on the unjust

The rain it raineth on the just
And also on the unjust fella;
But chiefly on the just, because
The unjust steals the just's umbrella.

Charles Bowen

"As soon as Dawkins stepped out from the portico, there was an enormous clap of thunder and it started to rain.
Heavily.
One might even say the heavens opened, though obviously Dawkins wouldn't.
Then I noticed that, waiting inside the foyer, there was a vicar..."

(from S. Chapman - Physics Education Sep '08)

Meanwhile, back in the USA, Ike is in the Gulf, headed for Texas.



click to embiggen

click here for animation

Ike is a curious beast, very large, with extended hurricane force winds, but relatively low central peak winds, for now. May be related to the fact it formed a concentric double eyewall for some time.
Texas coast is in for a wet time.

Galveston webcams for the morbid

Oil production in the Gulf is suspended in part, just as it was getting going after Gustav. However, on the current track the danger is to the Gulf coast refineries - about 1/3 of the US capacity.
If those are damaged, or knocked out for a while due to infrastructure and workforce issues, then oil prices could fall as petroleum prices spike, with possible absolute shortage supply.
The Oil Drum has the gory details - with the usual caveats on the risk weighting of emphasis - low probability, high risk scenarios are more interesting.

Me, I'm watching "invest 91L" - and hope I never meet it in person.

Tags

More like this

I have a much larger post coming out about Ike and hurricanes in general, but for now here is a quick update: Ike is going to come ashore between Seven PM tongight and Seven AM tomorrow morning. Since it is a very large storm, the most severe winds will be affecting a very large area. You can…
The following information is cribbed (with permission) from a FACTBOX produced by S&P Global Platts. Petroleum companies in the Gulf, especially around Houston, are are responding to likely shutdowns or possible damage due to the strengthening Hurricane, which is expected to have its largest…
There have already been several posts about href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/11/AR2008091100263.html">hurricane Ike on Scienceblogs ( href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2008/09/ike_texas.php">1 href="http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2008/09/…
As href="http://scienceblogs.com/catdynamics/2008/09/nasa_views_ike.php">noted on Dynamics of Cats, The Oil Drum has some details about loss of production of oil, natural gas, and refined oil products, due to hurricanes href="http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4525">Ike and Gustav.  (They've…