we are currently at a solar minimum, and the next cycle is starting,
but the numbers are down and the
Sun is unusually quiet
Like so:
Ok, should we be worried?
Is this the start of a new Maunder Minimum?
Will the Thames freeze?
Will there be knee deep snow in New England before Thanksgiving?
Will annoying climate skeptics chuckle and gloat?
Well, no, not yet:
though if by this time next year there are still no spots, we might start to think...
One should note that solar radiance and activity is independent of atmospheric IR opacity - it is perfectly possible for cyclic activity to temporarily mask global warming, but all that means is the temperature rise is more rapid and larger when the cycle turns...
But, why?
We're scientists, dammit, we need to know the causal factors that drive this.
Now it could be some complicated magnetohydrodynamics of turbulent plasma and the tendency of quasi-periodic phenomena in turbulent fluids to have multiple periods contributing to the long term dynamics... nah. Boring.
As Real Climate noted, sunspots correlate with a lot of things, and we must extract the essential physical causes, not secondary or proximate or even covarying causes.
now when more data became available, that particular correlation appeared to weaken, but the chaps at Real Climate realized that this was just because they had forgot to add the Hale shift (no, not that Hale shift, silly).
ah, but we are physicists, not some climatology weenies - note that there is additional phase information (the chi-by-eye is obvious): the sunspot curve tends to lead on the upswing, and lag on the down swing!
Sunspots don't just correlate with republican senate numbers, they are causative leading predictors of the increase in the number of senate seats for the republicans!
We could be in for a long cold century.
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