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H1N1: confirmed case count II

By catdynamics on May 10, 2009.

confirmed case count by CDC and WHO respectively
we can learn some interesting things

i-405e9f609e2ef5f491845fd00c770df0-h1n1-2.jpg

First thing we conclude is that some of WHO's correspondents don't like to work weekends.

Second thing we conclude is that the CDC got the test kits out to the states this week:
what we don't know is whether the turnover in the US cases is the 'flu petering out; or the State labs saturating throughput; or doctors not bothering to send samples in.
Could be any of the above.

Worldwide cases are till growing.

Of course we still don't know how many undiagnosed cases per unconfirmed case; it looked like about 30:1 in the US last week, based on purely anecdotal data.
Somewhere in the 10-100:1 range is not implausible.
3rd fatality was announced today I gather.

I'm betting now that this wave will ebb.
Weather is getting warm.
Next question then is whether it comes back in the autumn, and will it be the same?

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