Climate Change, in Action

What sort effects will temperature change have on our planet? Sure, the melting of the ice caps and the raising coastlines seem like important issues to address, as do hurricanes, droughts, and the management of fossil fuels. But what about the little things?

Wouldn’t temperature change have an effect on smaller, more sensitive organisms prior to affecting large organisms like ourselves? A degree or two difference may not mean very much to you or I... that’s not even the difference between a sweater day and a t-shirt day. Yet, what if you were a cold-blooded insect? How about a single-celled organism?

The Washington Post had an article yesterday which discussed the potential rate of extinction for our planetary flora and fauna. Author David A. Fahrenthold begins by recognizing the plight of the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge in Chesapeake Bay. This area is one of the first areas to feel the impact of sea level changes. Sections of the refuge have recently sunk beneath sea level, causing freshwater marshes to be flooded with saltwater and disrupting species. Then, he goes on to discuss the effects of temperature change on animals around the globe. According to the article, 20% of the world’s species may have an increased risk of extinction, while 60% of the world’s species may already be affected by climate change, for better or for worse:

If warming continues as predicted, scientists say, 20 percent or more of the planet’s plant and animal species could be at increased risk of extinction. But, as the shrinking habitat at Blackwater shows, the bad news isn’t all in the out years: Some changes have already begun. "This is actually something we see from pole to pole, and from sea level to the highest mountains in the world," said Lara Hansen, chief climate change scientist at the World Wildlife Fund, a private research and advocacy group. "It is not something we’re going to see in the future. It’s something we see right now."

By nature’s clock, the warming has come in an instant. The mechanisms that helped animals adapt during previous warming spells -- evolution or long-range migration -- often aren’t able to keep up. Scientists say that effects are beginning to show from the Arctic to the Appalachian Mountains. One study, which examined 1,598 plant and animal species, found that nearly 60 percent appeared to have changed in some way.

Personally, I find this to be a pretty optimistic estimate. I doubt any ecosystem could handle a change in 60% of its biodiversity, without affecting the ecosystem as a whole, and thus every part. The question is, what will happen first? How much must change before human lives are changed as well? Have we already begun to feel the effects?

It’s the little things... little pine beetles, taking advantage of some slight change in the ecological balance, feast on pine growth in the Rockies. So what? A few brown trees, here and there... it’s a little ugly, sure, but what do we care about a few bugs eating trees? It’s not like they’re eating the rainforests, right? Except the fast growing Taiga may work harder at cleaning the air and producing oxygen than the slower-growing rainforests. So, a few beetles may have a big bite.

How about the honeybees? They just got bit by a little virus, no big deal to us, right? So one pathogen, once rare, starts becoming more prolific. It only effects bees, right? Except bees are responsible for pollination of many of our favorite things: apples, almonds, citrus fruits, onions, etc. If the bees die out, or suffer great losses, we might find the prices of produce skyrocketing. We may not think much of stinging insects or a rare disease effecting them... until we realize spaghetti sauce tastes pretty bad without some onion and garlic in it.

So, bad food, dirty air, less interesting nature hikes... we can deal with these things, right? Especially if they’re gradual... maybe no one will notice. Maybe. Or maybe all of these little things added up, and lumped in with the major changes (like droughts, endangered coastal populations, dwindling resources, etc.,) we’re looking at a pretty rough time.

Note: Don’t get me wrong... I’m not trying to sound like some sort of doomsayer, pouring through the newspapers trying to find the worst case scenarios. On the other hand, I’ve been curious about the effects of climate change for the story I’m trying to write. Like much science fiction, my story deals with a "what-if" sort of situation... What if something typically viewed as small (like insects) got the upper hand? How much change would need to occur? Then, what would happen if the human "race" lost said race? True, it is just a fictional story... but I’d like it to be as based in reality as possible.

Sometimes, rarely but surely, fiction gets something right. An implausible twist in a story may be an excellent metaphor for a very plausible future. For that reason alone, such stories are worth writing, along with the accompanying research and speculation. (In other words, you might expect more odd, doomsaying comments from me, as I work on this story. Actually, while I’m mentioning it, you might expect more sporadic postings from me during the writing process.)

Graphic (by David Farenthold And Patterson Clark) and image of heron (by Andrea Bruce) via the Washington Post.