Michael J. Phelps said:
Is it not possible that many unsuccessful robberies are not reported, thus
not included in the NCS data?
NCS data is not based on reports, but a very extensive survey.
Consider that a person who is on the
receiving end of an attempted robbery didn't loose anything [so what are
they reporting?], may not consider themselves a victim [after all, the
crime wasn't completed], and doesn't see what benefit there would be in
spending the time reporting the attempt.
The NCS asks "did anyone try to rob you?"
On a personal note, 5 guys tried
to rob me some years ago; they didn't complete the attempt [no gun, i had
a knife in my hand (not the sharp end!) with my hand in my jacket pocket -
they never saw it] and i never reported it - it just seemed like a waste
of time [now that i'm more enlighted, perhaps i would].
If you had been asked by NCS "did anyone try to rob you?" would you
have told them?
Furthermore, depending on the prevailing laws and attitudes of the area,
one who drew a gun in self-defense might risk harrassement or criminal
prosecution [i know women who carry illegally in New York City; reporting
anything short of a shooting would be self-incriminating and undoubtedly
result in a felony conviction]; thats a strong disincentive to report!
Sure, some may not believe the NCS's promise of anonymity. But we're
talking about a discrepancy of a factor of 50 times. I cannot believe
that 98% of defensive users would conceal it from the NCS, but tell
Kleck about it.