Interrupted time series analysis of Orlando crime trends

Nate Lund said:

Point Blank, by Gary Kleck, page 134:

"From October 1966 to March 1967, the Orlando Police Department trained
more that 2500 women to use guns. Organized in response to demands from
citizens worried about a sharp increase in rape, this was an unusually
large and highly publicized program.

"An interrupted time series analysis of Orlando crime trends showed

The reference cited by Kleck does not contain an interrupted time
series analysis. McDowall et al (Criminology 29:4 p541-559) did an
interrupted time series analysis. They did find a reduction by 11
rapes in 67, but this was NOT statistically significant.

that the rape rate decreased by 88% in 1967, compared to 1966, a
decrease far larger than any previous 1-year period.

False, there was a larger percentage decrease in 1963.

The rape
rate remained constant in the rest of Florida and in the United
States. Interestingly, the only other crime to show a substantial
drop was burglary.

Interestingly, Kleck does not mention the crime that showed a
substantial INCREASE.

I suppose that you feel Kleck is not a credible source?

Well, since you asked...

Frequently, when I check the sources Kleck cites, I find that they do
not say what he says they do. The "errors" all seem to be in the same
direction. So, no, I don't find him trustworthy.


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