Julian Sanchez suggests that if Lott really got the 98% from his survey, then by marrying the 2.5 million Kleck DGU estimate with the 98% brandishing number, Lott is indulging in cherry-picking the numbers most favourable to his position from different surveys. Well, in this case I don't think that Lott is cherry picking. In statements before May 1999, Lott would say that there were 2.5 million DGUs (Kleck's DGU number) with 98% of them involving brandishing. After May 1999 (which was when he first claimed that the 98% came from his own survey) Lott switched to saying that there were 2 million DGUs (Lott's DGU number) with 98% of them involving brandishing. The logical explanation of this is not that he quit cherry-picking in May 1999, but that before May 1999 he believed that the 98% came from Kleck's survey. Now maybe he did a survey in 1997 that coincidently came up with 98% brandishing, matching the number he thought came from Kleck, but this seems like to much of a coincidence to be plausible.
So, was the attribution of the 98% to Kleck's study in the Lott quote below made by Lott, or did Dave Kopel add it? "Guns clearly deter criminals, with Americans using guns defensively over 2 million times each year---five times more frequently than the 430,000 times guns were used to…
Otis Dudley Duncan
This discussion is concerned with four topics: (1) Lott’s references to, remarks about, and discussions of DGU statistics originating in sample surveys or polls carried out by other investigators; (2) Lott’s claims about a survey he says he conducted in 1997; (3) Lott’s reports…
[On Sep 14 2002 I posted this to firearmsregprof. I also emailed it to John Lott. ]
Way back in 1993 in talk.politics.guns, C. D. Tavares wrote: The answer is that the gun never needs to be fired in 98% of the instances of a successful self-defense with a gun. The criminals just leave abruptly…
Well, after yesterday's revelations, blogspace seems to be split. On the one hand, we have Clayton Cramer, Steve Verdon, Jane Galt, Glenn Reynolds and Marie Gryphon who think Lott has been exonerated. On the other hand Kevin Drum and Tom Spencer are not yet convinced. On…