Julian Sanchez suggests that if Lott really got the 98% from his survey, then by marrying the 2.5 million Kleck DGU estimate with the 98% brandishing number, Lott is indulging in cherry-picking the numbers most favourable to his position from different surveys. Well, in this case I don't think that Lott is cherry picking. In statements before May 1999, Lott would say that there were 2.5 million DGUs (Kleck's DGU number) with 98% of them involving brandishing. After May 1999 (which was when he first claimed that the 98% came from his own survey) Lott switched to saying that there were 2 million DGUs (Lott's DGU number) with 98% of them involving brandishing. The logical explanation of this is not that he quit cherry-picking in May 1999, but that before May 1999 he believed that the 98% came from Kleck's survey. Now maybe he did a survey in 1997 that coincidently came up with 98% brandishing, matching the number he thought came from Kleck, but this seems like to much of a coincidence to be plausible.
"Eugene Volokh" writes:
Please, please, let's take special care to be polite in these
exchanges. This is a sensitive subject, but even when we think the
other person is dead wrong, it's better to say this in a subtler way.
OK, I'll do my best to be polite. I won't say anything in reply to the
ill…
Alternatively, a respondent making up a DGU, or describing a friend's
DGU as if it happened to someone in the respondent's household will
tend to make him or herself the defensive gun user.
Joel Friedman writes:
While I do not disagree, your estimate of 70% / 15% is just that an
estimate. It is…
Steve D. Fischer writes:
There are two kinds of lies to worry about. The first is making
up defensive gun usages (DGUs) which never occurred, or which did not
occur within the 1 year time period. The second is concealing DGUs that
did occur because you feared that your DGU might have been of…
The Minneapolis Star Tribune has a story about David Gross, who, after all this time, is the only witness to Lott's 1997 survey who has ever been found:
A major player and legal consultant on Minnesota's new gun-permit law is a former board member of the National Rifle Association…