The graph Lott presented to the NAS Panel

Bogus graph showing      crime decreases following carry laws This is one of the graphs that Lott presented to the National Academy of Sciences Panel in 2002. David Mustard's originally included it in his contribution to Evaluating Gun Policy, but it was removed after Donohue showed him that it was the product of coding errors made by Lott. Later graphs produced by Lott look quite different---as we saw yesterday, this seems to be all the acknowledgment you get from Lott when he makes an error.

Notice how the graph shows crime rates falling sharply and immediately after carry laws were adopted. These results were much more dramatic than any that Lott has produced before. Even if the coding errors were accidental, Lott should never have presented this graph to the panel. It should have been obvious to him that the results were too good to be true, but because they seemed to support his thesis, he accepted them. Even if not dishonest, this is inexcusable negligence and casts doubts over all of his other research results.

More like this

Lott has a new posting where he has some more about the important matter of the coding errors in his data. Sandwiched between some more complaints about unfair the Stanford Law Review has been and some imaginary errors in Ayres and Donohue, we have: Of course, this is nothing new with…
Lott's 6/13/03 entry on his blog links to a letter from David Mayer printed in the Columbus Dispatch replying to a letter from Donohue. Mayer asserts: The recent letter by Stanford law professor John Donohue (June 7) nicely illustrates the propensity of gun-control advocates to play…
Science has printed a letter from Lott (subscription required) responding to Science's editorial suggesting that the AEI should deal with Lott the same way that Emory dealt with Bellesiles: Donald Kennedy's editorial "Research fraud and public policy" (18 April, p. 393) alleges that I made up a…
Lott has an editorial arguing that the US army would be better off if it didn't disarm Iraqi civilians. Kathy Kinsley agrees. What is notable about his piece is what he doesn't cite. In arguing that American soldiers would be better off if more Iraqi civilians had guns he doesn't cite his…