The graph Lott presented to the NAS Panel

Bogus graph showing      crime decreases following carry laws This is one of the graphs that Lott presented to the National Academy of Sciences Panel in 2002. David Mustard's originally included it in his contribution to Evaluating Gun Policy, but it was removed after Donohue showed him that it was the product of coding errors made by Lott. Later graphs produced by Lott look quite different---as we saw yesterday, this seems to be all the acknowledgment you get from Lott when he makes an error.

Notice how the graph shows crime rates falling sharply and immediately after carry laws were adopted. These results were much more dramatic than any that Lott has produced before. Even if the coding errors were accidental, Lott should never have presented this graph to the panel. It should have been obvious to him that the results were too good to be true, but because they seemed to support his thesis, he accepted them. Even if not dishonest, this is inexcusable negligence and casts doubts over all of his other research results.

More like this

In The Latest Misfires in Support of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis Ayres and Donohue write: In the wake of some of the criticisms that we have leveled against the Lott and Mustard thesis, John Lott appeared before a National Academy of Sciences panel examining the plausibility of…
This is a long post, so I'll start with two summaries. One sentence summary: It looks as if Lott might have been caught cooking his "more guns, less crime" data. One paragraph summary: Ian Ayres and John Donohue wrote a paper that found that, if anything, concealed carry laws lead…
Stuart Benjamin writes: [John Lott's] core thesis, though, was called into doubt by a number of researchers, most prominently in a study (and reply, both complete with data sets) written by Ian Ayres and John Donohue, two top empirical economists. They concluded that the data did not support…
Lott has published an op-ed in the New York Post on the NAS panel. Lott once again claims that the panel was stacked: The panel was set up during the Clinton administration, and all but one of its members (whose views on guns were publicly known before their appointments) favored gun control. In…