Andrew Bolt takes back "nice words"

Andrew Bolt responded to my debate with Monckton by defaming me, calling me "vituperative, deceptive, a cherrypicker, an ideologue, a misrepresenter and a Manichean conspiracist only too keen to smear a sceptic as a crook who lies for Exxon's dollars". You'll be glad to hear that Bolt now says I take back my nice words about Lambert. Even though he admitted that "Many of these issues are over my head" he is now utterly convinced by a dishonest post from Joanne Nova that I somehow tricked Monckton.

Nova quote mines Pinker's explanation for this phrase:

if we give Christopher Monckton the benefit of doubt and assume that he meant "the impact of clouds on the surface shortwave radiation" than it can pass."

And claims it means exactly the opposite of what it does:

An honest look at the Pinker statement says Monckton may have gotten the terminology wrong, but allowing for this, his analysis "passes":

An honest look at the Pinker statement says that his terminology can pass but that his analysis is wrong, because as Pinker writes:

The CO2 "radiative forcing" value that Mr. Christopher Monckton is quoting refers to the impact on the Earth's Radiative balance as described above. The numbers that we quote in our paper represent the change in surface SW due to changes in the atmosphere (clouds, water vapor, aerosols). These two numbers cannot be compared at their face value.

Nova then tries to explain away the fact that Pinker wrote

Our work was properly interpreted in the latest IPCC Report (2007)

Watch the spin here:

Monckton never claimed the IPCC misrepresented Pinker. He said they actively ignored the bigger meaning; so Monckton agrees with what the IPCC said about the paper, but not with what it omitted to say. Pinker has not addressed this point at all.

Pinker was responding to this, from my email to her:

Later he [Monckton] accuses the IPCC of a fraudulent cover up of the implications of your paper.

Which was my summary of this statement from Monckton:

[The IPCC admits] that they don't really understand clouds. One of the reasons why they are willing to make that extremely rare admission that they don't understand something is that they want to conceal that they understand perfectly well the implications of Dr Pinker's paper and of a number of other papers like it, Wild et al is another one, the early satellite results is another, there's several of these papers out there all of which show for that period exactly what caused the warming which is a reduction in cloud cover. And when you see the conclusion of the chapter on Observations and the sub-chapter on Clouds in chapter 3 of the IPCC report. The only conclusion that you can come to is that they were deliberately avoiding the very clear implications of Dr Pinker's paper. They knew perfectly well that if they took proper account of that paper they would have to evaluate climate sensitivity as low by the remarkably simple calculation that I showed you on the screens or something very very close to it. And they simply fudged it because if they did that and admitted that all their previous reports were wrong they'd be out of business before you could say "Jack Robinson".

I suppose we should Nova points for trying, but there is no wiggle room there. And notice that Monckton is citing Wild et al as well, so we should also look at Wild says on the subject in Global dimming and brightening: A review: (my emphasis)

The decadal changes in SSR found in the dimming/brightening literature are at first sight often unrealistically large from a radiative forcing viewpoint, as, e.g., presented by IPCC [2007]. Therein, radiative forcings altering solar radiation between preindustrial (year 1750) and present day are on the order of minus 1-2 W m−2 on a global average, while some of the surface-based estimates show similar or larger changes already within a decade (Tables 1-3). Indeed, under the assumption of a climate sensitivity of 0.5-1°C per W m−2 radiative forcing as suggested by current climate models, a change of several W m−2 decade−1 as inferred from surface observations would imply enormous decadal variations in surface temperature which are not observed. However, one should be aware that the radiative forcing concept as used in the IPCC reports applies to changes at the tropopause, which cannot be directly compared to changes at the surface. Scattering and absorbing processes in the atmosphere are additive with respect to their effects on SSR at the surface, but may be opposed at the tropopause. Scattering aerosols enhance the reflectance of solar radiation back to space and reduce the solar flux to the surface. Absorbing aerosols also reduce the solar flux to the surface, but at the same time may reduce the reflectance back to space, opposed to the effects from scattering aerosols at the tropopause. Therefore, surface changes can expected to be larger than tropopause changes, and consequently are also not necessarily representative for (tropopause) radiative forcing estimates (this would only be valid in a purely scattering atmosphere). SSR change estimates based on surface observations should therefore not be used to challenge the IPCC radiative forcings [Liepert et al., 2007], even if these SSR changes would be free of biases from upscaling the surface point observations to global numbers.

Nova then quotes this confused email from Monckton

The only point that Lambert scored was that I had gotten Pinker's sex wrong in my Melbourne presentation (which, from memory, is the only one in which I mentioned her sex). Otherwise, his stuff was gibberish, as the audience swiftly understood when I explained it to them. During the debate, I had kindly done the calculation on the basis that the change in surface radiance mentioned in the Pinker paper would be the same at top of atmosphere, from which a climate-sensitivity calculation using the UN's method follows.
However, since Pinker insists that it is the surface radiance that her paper addresses, one must of course use the Stefan-Boltzmann radiative-transfer equation to evaluate the temperature change corresponding to the change in radiance caused by the reduction in cloud cover. And that means just about zero climate sensitivity, which, within the usual error margins, is about the same as the 0.12 K/W/m2 that my previous method had calculated. The common-sense point, as I explained to the audience, is that with that amount of warming from a natural source there was not much room for CO2 to have made much of a contribution.

Presumably by "use the Stefan-Boltzmann radiative-transfer equation to evaluate the temperature change" Monckton means that you should treat the Earth as a black body, ie ignore the fact that the Earth has an atmosphere. But it does have an atmosphere so such a calculation will not give the correct value for climate sensitivity.

More like this

On top of the 21 climate scientists correcting the numerous errors in Christopher Monckton testimony to Congress, we also have Rachel Pinker and Ellsworth Dutton correcting Monckton's misunderstanding of Pinker, Zhang and Dutton (2005): 1 Viscount Monckton attempts to directly link the change in…
The most damning thing about Christopher Monckton's testimony to the House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming on global warming science (video here), is the fact that the Republicans could not or would not get a single scientist to testify. His main argument is based on the…
You know that famous scene in Annie Hall where a bore is going on and on about Marshall McLuhan's work and Allen produces McLuhan who tells the bore that he got McLuhan all wrong? Well, that's kind of what happened in my debate with Monckton. Based on what he had identified as his most important…
Christopher Monckton will trouser $20,000 for an Australian Tour with Ian Plimer on backing vocals. To celebrate both The Australian and The Daily Telegraph printed extracts from Monckton's letter to Prime Minister Kevin Rudd generously offering to brief Rudd about climate science. Monckton…

Hmmm, so Tim I guess you have the answer to the question you asked Monckton:
"Tim's 1st question: if Pinker's correction is accurate, how will you correct the record?"
"Monckton: I will firstly check with Pinker and the IPCC."
I guess he decided not to check with Pinker. Would it be unfair to say that Monckton is a liar and uninterested in the truth?

Post Mortem of the Climate Change movement.
âDeath of a Salesmanâ.
RIP Global Dooming/Climate Change/Global Warm Mongering

In the end it was the Voters that dictated social science policy once again and not the lab coat consultants dictating our democracy. But it felt good didnât to share a concern with fellow humans no matter how fictional the made up crisis was. Thatâs why doomers were attracted to Liberalism. Liberalism, not conservatism utilizes hysteria and relegating opposing stances as pure evil. At least we conservatives are sporting considering its an honest struggle we like.
Climate change needed voter consensus, not scientist consensus. Promising death of the planet wasnât sustainable for another 24 years anyways. Voters would have to have gone to the poles starving from an obvious climate crisis, to have given the proposed taxes and citizen sacrifices the ok. Even you phony enviros and climate pansies would have thought twice when checking the TAX ME TAX ME TAX ME box on the ballot. Remember this doomers; your âSAVE THE PLANETâ was interpreted as âTHE PLANET IS DYINGâ. Promising death was an all-in bet that couldnât be covered for another quarter of a century.
Now we can preserve, protect and respect Nature and face the future challenges of energy with courage, not like climate pansies who tried to motivate our children with exaggeration selfishly elevated to the level of fear mongering with a promise of âdeathâ. How progressive.
Iâm 100% sure that Rachel Carson is cursing each and every one of you fading doomers for this irresponsible era of environ MENTAL ism with your neocon-like WMD called CO2.

By Meme Mine (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

Meme Mine, begone irrelevant troll.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

"Posted by: Meme Mine | February 28, 2010 12:39 PM"

Cool story, bro.

By Tyler DiPietro (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

How nice, a troll trying to change the subject :P
Must be a little sensitive about this thread.

Meme mine: Step right this way, sir - no sharp objects here, no worries. See the walls are all soft, and would you please wriggle into this fashionable white jacket. Ignore those overlong sleeves. Have some soothing music. There, that's not so bad is it?

@2 "Climate change needed voter consensus, not scientist consensus."

I can't get over this line. It's fabulously surreal.

A

> Presumably by "use the Stefan-Boltzmann radiative-transfer equation to evaluate the temperature change" Monckton means that you should treat the Earth as a black body, ie ignore the fact that the Earth has an atmosphere.

I'd presume that he is doing the tried-and-tested technique of putting enough big words in to satisfy his drones. It doesn't matter to him whether what he said was accurate or not; most of the people listening to him only care that he sounds like he knows what he's talking about.

@2:
Oh noes! The laws of physics have just been outvoted! Science has been foiled by democracy! And we would have gotten away with it too if it hadn't been for you meddling kids...

I'd add one more thing JamesA.

He's telling them exactly what they want to hear.

>In the end it was the Voters that dictated social science policy once again and not the lab coat consultants dictating our democracy.

Geez, you can't get any more anti-science than that!

When someone can't separate politics (voting) from science, we have serious problems.

Fear not, Paul UK!

Most of us may not be scientists, but neither are we complete morons.
Unlike those who spew the drivel you were objecting to.

Paul UK said "When someone can't separate politics (voting) from science, we have serious problems."

That's a nice opportunity to segue back to the topic of the post. What is it that motivates people like Bolt and Monckton? How can they claim Pinker is saying one thing, when it is clear she is saying another? Surely they understand what they are doing?

It is extraordinary how divorced from reality the denialists have become in the past few years. As recently as 2007 Bolt said that he had no doubt the Earth was warming and that human activity had a part to play in it. His argument back then was with the extent of it - to my mind a reasonable point of view. You certainly wouldn't get him saying that nowadays. (There's been some interesting experiments where people have posted exactly his words onto his blog to see the reaction. It's as you would expect - unbelievable abuse.)

I suspect the thing is that they really cannot separate politics from science. They're either old fashioned Marxists for whom, "everything is political" or post-modernists, who believe that they really can create their own reality. Or maybe it's a kind of double-think. They have an identity, a persona, a tribal loyalty, that is linked with them believing that AGW is not happening. For them, two plus two has to equal five. Or to use a more recent example, they're like George from Seinfeld who says that it's not a lie if you really, really believe it. Even if you know it's untrue. Or maybe it's as simple as getting back at that lecturer who failed them in first year Physics - form of delayed, redirected revenge... It's pretty obvious that something like that is going on with meme mine.

Anyway, enough speculation about the nature of the denialist 'mind'. A man could go mad trying to unearth its mysteries.

By Anonymous (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

The trouble with arguing with someone who does not care about scientific accuracy is they can dribble out irrelevant or plain wrong "facts" at a rapid rate. If you try to take them on by correcting the errors, each error takes a lot longer to rebut than it takes to state, unless you simply say it's wrong. If you do the latter, an uninformed audience sees it as your word against the other person's. If you do the former, you argue against a small fraction of the wrong points, appearing to be nit-picking.

Unfortunately science is not a matter of opinion. It is a matter of weighing up evidence vs. theories. A good theory fits the evidence well; a better theory fits the evidence better. Using debating tricks etc. is all very fine in an undergrad debating society, but the science remains what it is at the end of the "debate". The contrary side have no plausible alternative theory, and the evidence for the mainstream is continuing to build. Hence the need to oppose the science with vaudeville acts and the like. If the mainstream was as weak as they claim, they would be able to line up data that is a poor fit to the theory, or come up with a better theory. The way to do this is to write a good paper, not a vaudeville act, trashing scientists' reputations, etc.

The more this sort of attack on the science goes on, the more convinced I am that there is no serious flaw in the mainstream. Big Oil for example has massive R&D resources, with world-class science dedicated to finding new oil wells. Don't tell me they lack the resources to review the literature, find obvious flaws and fund research that addresses those flaws. What is actually happening strongly suggests that they have indeed reviewed the science and found no case for funding real contrarian research â a deduction supported by [fact](http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/24/science/earth/24deny.html).

"I take back my nice words on Lambert" Tim, you must be devastated. My condolences. ;-)

One of the commentors in the Jo Nova blog (Louis Hissink) references a paper about Venus on a site that:

>"is consistent with the Christian Bible as well as ancient myth, thereby unifying scientific and religious views."

Heh, heh, heh. The author of the 'paper' also authors the site.

In an earlier comment Hissink says:

>"Iâve finally managed to get a paper analysing the âgreenhouse effectâ on Venus which is the basis of the Copenhagen Diagnosis..."

AFAIK the Copenhagen Diagnosis doesn't mention the greenhouse effect on Venus. But more importantly it seems the 'paper' is written by someone that says:

>"We accept the sacred myths as scientific data - observations of cosmic events..."

He claims Venus is 6000 years old:

"Based on our interpretation of sacred myths... Venus was born some six millennia ago..."

It's a real fantasy land at Jo Novas!

As recently as 2007 Bolt said that he had no doubt the Earth was warming and that human activity had a part to play in it. His argument back then was with the extent of it - to my mind a reasonable point of view. You certainly wouldn't get him saying that nowadays.

When the Murdoch changes, Bolt changes his mind. What do you do, sir?

Paul UK, Hissink is a follower of Immanuel Velikovsky, whose theories on planetary formation can be summarised as "the solar system is a big atom and all the planets are electrons which jump around between energy levels". He claims that Velikovsky's geological theories help him find diamonds. You can tell this works, because of how fabulously rich and influential he is from his controlling interest in all those diamond mines.

By James Haughton (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

Thanks James. I was reading through the comments and decided to check out the venus thing. I nearly didn't because the site was called "firmament-chaos".

But then thought, for a laugh, I'll have a look.

Wadard, do you have a link for when Murdoch changed his mind? I thought he was still pro AGW.

Enough to read just one of Nova's blog posts in full to realise that the excerpts you'd previously seen were a fair representation of her "work". Yes she really is that inept, that ideologically driven, that bad a character. I imagine half her regular readers are there because she's blonde and they're wankers.

Note that Monckton is at odds with fellow "skeptics" Spencer and Christy. He refers to the "early" satellite record suggesting that he doesn't like the corrected figures (S & C admitted they'd got the early record wrong and corrected it). This is Richard Lindzen's contribution to debate recently, he's been giving Monckton his talking points on the meme that scientists would falsify data to fit a preconceived hypothesis. I'd like to see Lindzen sacked from his professional memberships for it.

Anonmymous #14

What is it that motivates people like Bolt and Monckton? How can they claim Pinker is saying one thing, when it is clear she is saying another? Surely they understand what they are doing?

They know that they are using original researchers' work and data to draw conclusions that the researchers would disagree with (being diametrically opposed to the published conclusions which the Moncktons and Lomborgs have of course read).

You can only do this when you know for a fact that you are much, much smarter than the people whose original work you have stolen from .... and of course you only know this when you are as irredeemably delusional and antiscientific as Bolt, Nova, Carter, Plimer, Monckton and their muppets.

@17 Paul UK - Sometimes these guys reminds me of the George Bernard Shaw quote, "I often quote myself. It adds spice to my conversation."

Perhaps, "I like to quote myself to support my own theories."

[Paul UK](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/02/andrew_bolt_takes_back_nice_wo…).

There are many other examples of Louis Hissink's bizarre 'scientific' beliefs sprinkled through other threads on Deltoid if you care to search! Add "Marohasy" or "iron" to your search terms and you'll probably hit some interesting ones.

Speaking of Marohasy, [frankis'](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/02/andrew_bolt_takes_back_nice_wo…) comment about blondes probably has more than a grain of truth. When the Old Bog dried out [Louis Hissink and his fellow hands-in-pockets brethren migrated en masse to Nova's](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/01/the_australians_war_on_science_…)*, to fawn and gush there as they used to over Marohasy. It seems that scientific credibility was not a criterion for their relocation, but then, who's surprised about that?

Their dedication to Marohasy is admirable though - the last thread there has evolved into a rat's tooth etched with the nonsense of self-reaffirming pseudoscience so nutty that its very presence is a fitting epitaph to the demise of Marohasy's credibility.

(*For laughs, read some of the comments in the second link!)

By Bernard J. (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

Frankis (#26) said "You can only do this when you know for a fact that you are much, much smarter than the people whose original work you have stolen from ....."

Hmmm... Good point Frankis. An extreme form of Narcissism then? Yes, that's probably on the money.

By Anonymous (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

> if we give Christopher Monckton the benefit of doubt and assume that he meant âthe impact of clouds on the surface shortwave radiationâ than it can pass.

But this is exactly what Monckton does say isn't it ?

Wasn't he saying that the IPCC ignored this effect from clouds or gave it a minimal effect instead attributing 1.7W/m2 of warming to CO2 when in fact twice that amount was actually due to absence of clouds i.e. Pinker's paper ?

Isn't Pinker's entire comment based on the assumption that Monckton was saying sommething else ? Where did she get that idea Tim ?

And in that one sentence, doesn't she effectively issue a statement saying if, on the other hand, what he is saying is .... then it is ok ?

Tim, I think you still don't understand that you are being played. No amount of scientific scrutiny or correctness will work here.

The point is that questions (right or wrong) have been raised by "sceptics", scientifically inappropriate behaviour has been documented by people contributing to the AGW theories (it is _never_ OK to withhold data - even if you are being asked by a complete moron) and now the trust in scientists doing all this work has been lost in such numbers that it matters. Hence, we have crossed from science into politics.

The failure of Copenhagen was colossal. Essentially, China and India told the world to bugger off. Also, it is very hard to effect any change in the US, due to their local political scenarios. And without those three, nothing anyone does will really matter. It is chaff.

So, you'll find that your average Australian taxpayer would have changed their mind a bit. They don't care about doomsday scenarios you and AGW scientists are painting any more. They simply say: "Hey, if this means money out of my pocket and my job gone, then heck no - I won't have any of it unless the big boys do it first."

The opportunity has been lost (for now). Can it be gained again? Who knows. I guess once we start hitting depletion of oil/coal in 50 or 60 years from now, we will be forced to correct this, because we'll run out of things to burn, but doing it as a result of some kind of AGW agreement seems rather unlikely at this point. And if ETS gets pushed through by Greens, just you wait until everything becomes more expensive and many lose jobs. The noise we are hearing now will be silence compared to what happens then.

So, in summary, Monckton and others arguing against AGW don't have to be right. They just have to be there. That's the nature of the beast, not in small measure a result of idiotic lack of judgement by those who wrote those climategate e-mails. And unless something really catastrophic happens climate wise rather soon, you'll get played every time. Not you fault...

By Anonymous (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

On the technical point here, I believe the issue is that radiative forcing is defined by flux change at the tropopause, which is a completely different part of the atmosphere than the surface. A small change in forcing at the tropopause can cause very large surface radiative flux changes due to the various feedback effects - that's sort of the whole point. In order to back out a surface flux change to the associated forcing you'd need to know all the feedbacks in the first place.

And the effect of that transformation would be to reduce the flux associated with the surface to a considerably smaller number for the actual forcing. Therefore the corrected value for the ratio that Monckton calculates (surface temperature change over flux change as an estimate of sensitivity) is much larger than the number he quotes, since it varies inversely with that flux.

Just to point out that (as is typical) the technical problem here implies a conclusion completely opposite to Monckton's claim.

Anonymous@32

That's the nature of the beast, not in small measure a result of idiotic lack of judgement by those who wrote those climategate e-mails.

No one is going to spend their time carefully considering every word they write or speak, in light of the potential for those of bad faith (ie the denialati) to deliberately cast their words in as poor light as possible. Given their penchant for dishonesty, any time thus spent would be wasted anyway.

@2 "Voters would have to have gone to the poles starving from an obvious climate crisis, to have given the proposed taxes and citizen sacrifices the ok."

You meant 'polls', I assume? Mind you: "poles" is a nice malapropism in this spot.

The whole Concern Trollosphere talks about the evils of anonymous comments, but some of us put "Anonymous" in our killfile.

By Marion Delgado (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

Michael@34,

That horse has bolted and look at the damage it's done. Always, always, always take the high road. Especially when you're asking for billions of dollars. (Also note that data was denied at various points. A big no-no in scientific world.)

Before all this, it was easy to paint the "sceptics" with a dishonesty brush (big oil etc.). Now it looks to an average taxpayer like both sides are just cheerleaders for their own agenda, but the AGW camp want to take their hard earned money too. Guess which side taxpayers are going to go with in that scenario...

That's why I'm saying that Tim is being played. Scientific rigour is being lost to the bigger picture. Many stopped caring whether science is right or not, for several different reasons already mentioned above.

By Anonymous (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

At the risk of feeding the concern troll ...

Some troll wittered:

Before all this, it was easy to paint the "sceptics" with a dishonesty brush (big oil etc.). Now it looks to an average taxpayer like both sides are just cheerleaders for their own agenda, but the AGW camp want to take their hard earned money too. Guess which side taxpayers are going to go with in that scenario...

1. it pretends to know what "ataxpayers" want

2. it implies that those favouring mitigation want to "take taxpayers' money" rather than redirect it

3. it implies that public subsidy to the polluters by giving them the right to treat the biosphere as an uncharged industrial sewer and leaving our descendent with the cost as an unfunded debt would pass unnoticed.

How stupid are these characters?

By Fran Barlow (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

@2

"climate pansies"?

"neocon-like WMD called CO2"?

Seriously wierd.

Tim, if you're not already doing it, is it possible for you to work with Pinker to put out another, formal statement on the implications of Pinker's research? Perhaps one that addresses remarks made since the debate (such as Nova's).

I know you and Pinker shouldn't have to jump through such hoops, but for the sake of the public debate I think it could be useful. Bolt and friends should not get away with such muddying of the waters, especially on an issue that goes to the heart of Monckton's thesis.

I wouldn't ask you to abandon attempts at a nuanced explanation, but (without knowing much about it) I suspect the argument could be made a little more clearly. I'm certainly grateful for your efforts thus far.

#32 Anonymous said:

"Tim, I think you still don't understand that you are being played. No amount of scientific scrutiny or correctness will work here."

The making of the film the Age of Stupid was obviously more than justified in that case!

"The opportunity has been lost (for now). Can it be gained again? Who knows. I guess once we start hitting depletion of oil/coal in 50 or 60 years from now, we will be forced to correct this, because we'll run out of things to burn, but doing it as a result of some kind of AGW agreement seems rather unlikely at this point."

We are at or close to Peak Oil now, although the real trouble begins as we start on the downward curve on its other side. This decade sometime, I would suggest.

Peak Coal is as further away from your 50/60 years as Peak Oil is nearer. The really silly bit is that what a lot of you are advocating - business as usual - attempts to grow its way out of the current recession via the standard route that involves an economic growth system based on an assumed infinite reserve of oil, coal and gas. The more that you and your kind get their way, the sooner we hit oil depletion, peak Gas and the peak Coal, in that order. Therefore, what you and your colleagues are advocating is burn, burn and crash - total, probably irrecoverable economic ruin, within the 21st Century.

Transition to a low-carbon economy on the other hand prolongs the availability of the fossil fuels whilst at the same time it creates colossal economic and mass-employment opportunities in the energy, transport, construction and food sectors. It also addresses AGW, although we've already committed to at least two degrees increased global average temperature due to lag/residence factors.

It seems to me what you guys want is a crash, and Peak Oil will have a good go at achieving that within ten years, mark my words. Perhaps at that point, it will be much easier to explain to the general public that the economic model of Infinite Growth on a Finite Planet is a 100% flawed paradox!

By johntherock (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

Yes, yes don't feed the troll etc. But:

That's the nature of the beast, not in small measure a result of idiotic lack of judgement by those who wrote those climategate e-mails.

I mean, come on. Seriously. Really. How about the idiotic nature of those who misinterpreted, misrepresented, and stripped all context out of the "climategate" emails?

How about those who still think the "trick" was a big call-to-arms for the conspiracy, rather than a genuine referral to a divergent data problem which was already well publicised in the literature?

I mean, I read this crap every single day from those who wouldn't know a CO2 molecule if a block of them fell from the sky and hit them on the head. Very irritating.

@39, 42, 43:

> you and your kind

If you actually _read_ what I wrote, you would know that _my_ kind is not what you're implying it is.

Burying your heads in the sand isn't going to do any good. There is no point denying reality. A couple of years back it would be impossible for any "sceptic" to even get any media attention. Now, they are "equal" opponents in most any debate. They _are_ being listened to, more than you think.

PS. See how our own PM has to eat humble pie daily, because he underestimated how much damage being sloppy can do.

PPS. I don't have to pretend to know anything. Just read the recent polls and see for yourself how the side that denied ETS twice already _is_ gaining strength.

By Anonymous (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

It's curious how certain individuals are obsessed by what "taxpayers" may or may not think. Evidently, the future of today's children counts for little.

And speaking of dishonesty,

data was denied at various points. A big no-no in scientific world.)

our concern troll de jour trots out this little lie.

Gore and The UN IPCC should be forced to give back their Nobel Peace Prize. The flaws in Gore's film and the errors in the 2007 UN IPCC Report that have been discovered since the award was given should disqualify both parties. Irena Sendler who risked her life daily during World War II to save the lives of over 2,500 Jewish children is much more deserving. Please sign the petition to demand that Gore and the UN IPCC have their award taken away. http://www.stripgore.com

Thanks for that totally off-topic comment Mark.

When will the denialists obsession with Gore cease??

And if only their concern with errors was universal - but then I guess they would be so busy with Monckton, McIntyre, Watts et al that they'd have no time left in the day.

I assume Monckton get to keep his imaginary Nobel Prize though.

> When will the denialists obsession with Gore cease??

In the absence of any actual science, shooting the messenger is the only tactic they have, so they won't give that one up. The only way they'll stop obsessing about Gore is if someone else takes his place as a high-profile spokesperson for the science.

How to stop the obsession with Al Gore (Do the denialists wish that the Supreme Court had let him win that damn election just to shut him up...?]

... start quoting Arnold Schwartzenegger.

Mark - Mark! - don't miss Gore's latest in the NYT Mark! Shocking, awful, wicked! Don't miss out Mark!

@45:

I had a really good chuckle when I read your post Michael. Although I admit I shouldn't have. For, you made all my points for me. It is exactly this kind of elitist, patronising nonsense that made people start listening to "sceptics".

By Anonymous (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

I get the impression that Aussies are well aware of Hissinks views of science, it's something I'm new to.

However don't get complacent. It is often worthwhile highlighting such a persons 'beliefs' and their dabbling with the 'occult' just so that newbies and Aussie layman are reminded of Hissinks crank status.

There are always knew people coming along that will look at what someone like Hissink says at face value. It is wise to occasionally just reiterate what is known about him in the simplest terms, it may be boring, but most jobs are!

It is exactly this kind of elitist, patronising nonsense that made people start listening to "sceptics"

So in your world view, how does one non-elitely non-patronisingly point out that a falsehood is a falsehood is a falsehood, and continues to be a lie when the three hundredth person confidently states it?

Or point out the difference in values between oneself and themselves?

Because that's the problem in a nutshell. Mindless repetition of known lies by people who think they're accurately informed, and very different (possibly not consciously considered) values.

Seems to me you want to put the truth in a double bind. Point it out and people will complain you're elitist. Don't point it out and people will believe the falsehoods.

If you're happy with that state of affairs, then your concern is useless.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 28 Feb 2010 #permalink

It is exactly this kind of elitist, patronising nonsense that made people start listening to "sceptics".

Could you perhaps string a couple of sentences together where you don't pretend to speak on behalf of 'people' or 'taxpayers' or whoever the hell you're using to avoid direct accountability for your own position?

It is exactly this kind of elitist, patronising nonsense that made people start listening to "sceptics".

Patronising? Allow me to introduce myself. I am Christopher Walter Monckton, 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley. I don't believe we've met.

By Christopher Monckton (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Meme Mine didn't take his medication today.

I think it's funny when denialists get called out on their bullshit that they switch to non-scientific-related claims to try to win the argument, such as 'eliiiiiiiiiiitist' or 'noooooo wurld oooooooooooorder' or 'the voters know everything'.

Tribalist scumbags they are.

By Katharine (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

@55 - 57

If anyone is to have any chance of success in dealing with the problem and "save the children", the causality principle would mandate not to offend the very people that are supposed to pay for the fix, don't you think? As I see it, it seems that some have forgotten that in their desire to push things through. Ergo, instead of facing one problem, now we have two.

By Anonymous (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Thankyou brave Sir @57.

Yours is the kind of honest man-in-the-street opinion that we people-in-the-street want to hear, not any of this elitest ivory tower garbage from our self-appointed betters (AKA Scientists).

My sincere and humble thanks to you m'Lord, from one not fit to kiss the hem of your lordly robes.

Right on @59!

If people believe nonsense that has harmful implications, the highest priority is not to offend anyone.

Though it is increasingly celar that certian elements within the conservtive political sphere see this as the new battlefield upon which they can launch the Culture Wars MkII.
It's a pity that they are happy to sacrifice science in their little jihad.

Your kind words have filled my heart with happiness, commoner.

By Christopher Monckton (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Oh Lord, that you deign to notice my unworthy mutterings!!

Please, speaketh to me of the snowball earth and CO2 of 300,000 ppm!

Hilarious :-)

By Anonymous (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Anonymous:

The failure of Copenhagen was colossal.

Simply tragedy of the commons playing out. You're obviously very happy that this (tragedy of the commons) is happening.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

It's a pity that they are happy to sacrifice science in their little jihad.

Indeed. Denying science is a losing strategy. Some people never learn.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Amoeba, over on RabettRun, has already dealt with Mark E. Gillar and his petition :

"It seems the Hootervile Gazette People are all such nice people!
They really like Monckton; the OISM; Glenn Beck; Heartland Institute & etc.
It's all tied-in to an outfit called the 'Conservative Consumer Coalition'.
http://www.conservativeconsumercoalition.com/
It appears their Chief Scientist is either Glenn Beck, or Monckton. It's hard to tell. ;-)"

http://rabett.blogspot.com/2010/02/framing-al-gore.html?showComment=126…

@59, I have a hard time believing that people are offended at what the proponents of action on climate change have actually said and done. This feeling of offense has been formed and nurtured by interests opposed to such action.

I understand the reaction against "elitism", but what can we do? Climate change is a complex issue that, like all other science, requires a great deal of expertise to fully understand. People have to realise and accept three things:

  1. There are true experts and false experts, and it is not a matter of opinion as to which is which;
  2. One does not become an expert merely by spewing forth vast reams of opinion; and
  3. One has little choice but to accept the word of the true experts, unless one wants to put in the hard work necessary to become an expert oneself.

It's not democratic and it can't be democratic. If some people are offended by that, there's precious little that we can do.

Humans are bad at thinking ahead.

By Katharine (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Tim,

Any chance you could get Prof. Pinker to respond, in this thread, in Blot's blog, or Nova's blog? If she does not want to post a message directly, perhaps she might prepare a statement and allow you to post it here?

The denidiots truly have no limits, do they? After denying so much in science and its practice, they deny that statements in English mean what they obviously do!

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

15 Philip,

Or more simply, if the "sceptics" really had the science, they would have "won" where it matters, in peer-reviewed journals. To explain their utter failure to do that, they claim some great econazi warmofascist conspiracy to establish a World Governament which will tax us back into the Stone Age. You couldn't make it up could you?

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

26 frankis,

I imagine half her regular readers are there because she's blonde and they're wankers.

I'm sure her fans have much in common with those of Jennifer Marohasy.

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

I'm trying to make sense of this debate but it can't be done without full info.
Tim I can't find your email to Pinker, can you point me to it please so as I can put this in context.

By Baa Humbug (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

28 Bernard,

Yep, looks like Jo is the new Jenny!

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

30 anonymous,

If you don't already know it, look up 'Dunning-Kruger effect'. I think only evolutionary biology rivals climate science for the extent of this.

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Well, the way I see it, this whole debate is about Tims email request to Pinker and Pinkers reply to Tim. Unless we can all see the full and complete email and reply, none of us can come to an informed conclusion. Anyone disagree?

Otherwise this whole exercise is no different to a bunch of high school kids chattering away on facebook about nothing. All bloggers on this site, no matter their view point, should be offended by that.

By Baa Humbug (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Re:Mark E. Gillar and his nasty little petition

Googling the text of that post revealed 1,190,000 hits, so the slime-balls have been busy.

By ScaredAmoeba (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

I think the clear lesson from this is that if don't accept evolution, that HIV causes AIDS or that we are causing global warming and you think you have found something in a mainstream scientist's paper that supports your views, even though the author quite clearly does not, then the honest thing to do is ask the author of the paper whether your interpretation is correct.

Monckton should write to Pinker and ask whether his interpretation is correct. This is what an honest person would do.

By Chris Noble (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

>*Googling the text of that post revealed 1,190,000 hits*

The Mark E. Gelliars of the loony right have been trying to "stop Gore" for even longer than they have tried to Stop Hillary or Stop Obama.

Its what they do and how they define themselves.

>Well, the way I see it, this whole debate is about Tims email request to Pinker and Pinkers reply to Tim. Unless we can all see the full and complete email and reply, none of us can come to an informed conclusion. Anyone disagree?

Hilarious.
How long before Tims emails are unlawfully hacked by some paranoid sceptics wanting 'the truth'?

OK SBVOR I clicked on your link and looked through your work and comments to it. You seem to sincerely believe in what you're saying there (although I've been fooled before).

Here is the weakest part that caught my eye:

Click here for a more technical description of this mathematical analysis from PhD physicist Dr. Luboš Motl.

Therefore, by NOAAâs own standards, the IPCC computer models -- the SOLE SOURCE of ALL climate change hysteria mongering -- have -- with 95% certainty -- been officially invalidated!

To see why you should exercise extreme caution with citing Lubos Motl at the moment it'd be hard to go past reading his contribution to a current thread here at Deltoid:

Mostly though your words "hysteria ... 95% certainty ...! " betray that you have not studied statistics, would that be correct? Given this you should suspect that you're on shaky ground pontificating the way you do - how exactly do you know whose statistical claims to believe when you're unschooled in the subject yourself? I'd suggest the answer to that is clearer than you'd prefer to think; you're picking the arguments you choose to believe on ideological grounds and taking statistical claims made by others on faith.

82 jakerman,

See SBVOR's blog. Who would guess he's a wingnut?

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Thanks SBVOR @ 78

That was an illuminating read, I was previously unaware that photoshop was such a vital scientific tool. You have opened my eyes in ways unimaginable.

I was wondering where on that site I may click to receive my diploma in blog science 101, as I feel empowered now to take on all those nasty climate scientists with my recently acquired advanced knowledge in the photoshop sciences.

By Ben Breeg (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Frankis 84,

Your buddy Lambert is censoring my comments (hence, only Lambert and I will ever see this one).

So, there is really no point in responding to you. Instead I'll respond with a belly laugh at Lambert -- the consummate propagandist -- trying to claim that Phil Jones did not say what Phil Jones CLEARLY said.

What a con man tool this Lambert is!

P.S.) FYI, I have a very solid academic background in statistics.

>See SBVOR's blog. Who would guess he's a wingnut?

I took a peak, apparently its simply blog censership that is holding back this intellectual giant's contribution to science!

Hey Lambert (the censorship merchant who will be the only one to ever see this comment):

I knew there was a reason why I virtually never visit your site.

The gang rape smearing of Dr. Lubos Motl in this thread (which you clearly sanctioned) is all the reason I need to continue avoiding your utterly irrelevant and completely biased hate based, juvenile smear merchant site.

Adios, Lambert! Have fun in your pathetic little sandbox.

SBVOR, if you can't understand basic stats that's neither Tim's fault, nor Phil Jones's.

"Your buddy Lambert is censoring my comments (hence, only Lambert and I will ever see this one)."

Oh, yeah, and I'll bet he only put that live to make you look stupid. It's all a conspiracy!

always nice to meet the elite of the denialist camp.

wonderful people, aren t they?

Hey! Lambert!

Why do you repeatedly censor the clear evidence I have presented on the peer reviewed 10,000 year temperature data?

Can't face the facts? Roger that! No con man can!

87 SBVOR,

I have a very solid academic background in statistics.

BHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Baa Humbug #79

"Otherwise this whole exercise is no different to a bunch of high school kids chattering away on facebook about nothing."

Sounds like what goes on at WUWT, all the time.

By Revolution9 (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

For the SVBOR/Dunning-Kruger trolls ...

Those crusading Mmaverick scientists using photoshop to overturn groupthink can now take some comfort in this story ...

Only months after abandoning a tenured position at Lehigh University, maverick chemist Theodore Hapner managed to disprove two of the three laws of thermodynamics and show that gold is a noxious gas, turning the world of scienceâdefined for centuries by exhaustive research, painstaking observation, and hard-won theoriesâcompletely on its head.

The brash chemist, who conducts independent research from his houseboat, has infuriated peers by refusing to "play by the rules of Socrates, Bacon, and Galileo," calling test results as he sees them, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

"If you're looking for some button-down traditionalist who relies on so-called induction, conventional logic, and verification to arrive at what the scientific community calls 'proof,' then I'm afraid you've got the wrong guy," said the intrepid 44-year-old rebel, who last month unveiled a revolutionary new model of atomic structure that contradicted 300 years of precedent. "But if you want your results fast and with some flair, then come with me and I'll prove that the boiling point of water is actually 547 degrees Fahrenheit."

Armed with only with a Bunsen burner, a modest supply of chemical compounds, and a balance scaleâthe last of which Hapner has "yet to find any good reason to use"âthis controversial nonconformist defies every standard definition of what a scientist should be. From his tendency to round off calculations, to his rejection of controlled experiments, Hapner is determined to avoid becoming "one of those cowardly sheep who slavishly kowtows to a tired old methodology."

"I'm sure my opponents would love to see me throw in the towel and start using empirical evidence to back every one of my theories," Hapner said. "They'd have a better chance convincing me that metals, like copper, are naturally strong conductors of electricity." [...]

Rogue Scientist Has Own Scientific Method

I'm willing to risk attack by those who don't get Poe's Law ...

By Fran Barlow (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

So, tell me...
Is this another site which foolishly throws anything with some arbitrary number of links into moderation?

Is that why some of my comments are not published and others are?

Mercifully, Accuweather.com saw the foolishness of that policy and abandoned it.

.....and the spin on Jones' comments just gets bigger and bigger.

Everyone knows what he said. It's on the public record.

It's just that not everyone seems to understand that "not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level" doesn't mean "does not exist" or "will never be statistically significant".

And of those people, many are taking it upon themselves to spread the falsehood that Jones has admitted there has been no warming since 1998.

While the average Joe just does this out of ignorance or misunderstanding, anyone who is good at statistics does it, I presume, either out of sheer dishonesty or out of grossly overestimating their own competence.

SBV your conspiracy complex is starting to drown you. This site has auto moderation set for certain parameters, such as using more than 3 or 4 links in one post (avoiding link spam I assume), or using certain libelous terms such as fra*d.

At least these are two blocks I've set off in the past.

1) The phony Photoshop claims strike me as typical of Lambertâs acolytes.

2) Since my multi-link comments are not getting published, letâs try another tack to get to the same point.

3) There are two charts in this post which present 10,000 years of temperature data. The data are peer reviewed and published on NOAAâs web site. Anybody can drop that data into an Xcel spreadsheet and get the same result.

In the Vostok example, I have appended data from a British weather station on the exact same location as the Petit, et al study site.

In the Greenland ice sheet example, I have approximated 100 years of warming based upon Box, et al. If anything, this is an exaggeration of the recent warming at the GISP2 site.

At Vostok, we see -- just in the last 10,000 years -- 10 periods which were warmer than today.

In the case of Greenland, we see -- just in the last 10,000 years -- 12 periods which were warmer than today. And, that is based upon the likely FALSE assumption that the MWP was COOLER than today.

In both cases, we see an on-going, uninterrupted 10,000 year cooling trend and we can CLEARLY see that there is nothing even remotely unusual about the latest warming.

Now, if any of you believe the Photoshop LIES, my post provides direct links to all the cited data. Check it for yourselves (if ANY of Lambertâs acolytes are even remotely honest).

I wonder - was Jones' "95% confidence level" quote a deliberate trap, designed to capture and expose credulous dittoheads? Because it's working. It's working *brilliantly*.

"The phony Photoshop claims strike me as typical of Lambertâs acolytes."

Oops, was it perhaps PAINT.NET?

By Ben Breeg (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Jakerman (March 1, 2010 5:18 PM)

1) Click here for the link which you botched.

2) The temperature proxy chart at the top of that page presents 12,000 years of data. As the world emerged from the last glacial maximum, temperatures rose rapidly until about 10,000 years ago. When one examines the last 10,000 years (the period most commonly, and most correctly, described as Holocene), your chart agrees with mine. The only remaining difference is that the Y axis on your chart is more compressed -- thereby better concealing the 10,000 year cooling trend.

3) See my previous comment and follow the links to the NOAA provided raw GISP2 data and verify the facts for yourself -- unless, of course, like all so-called âProgressivesâ, you are a victim of the logical fallacy of an appeal to authority and, thereby, unable to think for yourself.

Jakerman (March 1, 2010 5:43 PM) claims I:

âcherry pick two sites [Vostok (Antarctic) & GISP2 (Arctic)]â

Fine, if Jakerman or anybody else has any other equally credible temperature data for the entire 10,000 to 12,000 year period of the Holocene, letâs see it.

Fair warning -- present the infamous Hockey Stick and Iâll just laugh.

>Your buddy Lambert is censoring my comments (hence, only Lambert and I will ever see this one).

Erm, a bit of paranoia creeping in. Amongst other things.

Why are American fanatical sites so badly designed?
Actually why are all 'fanatical' sites badly designed?

Is it because the paranoia and brain explosions play havoc with the sense of aesthetics?

SBVOR:
>Is that why some of my comments are not published and others are?

Maybe you are just incompetent at using any technology.

Paul UK | March 1, 2010 6:20 PM sez:

âErm, a bit of paranoia creeping in.â

When Lambertâs site fails to advise new commentators what will and will not throw a post into moderation, what do you expect?

Lambert should (and easily could) openly advise his commentators of the policy.

But, that would eliminate the fun of childishly smearing those who are new commentators, eh?

I've just had a look at SBVOR's blog post about climate and noticed that most of the comments are his own??

Opposing comments with the exception of one have been removed, but SBVOR's replies to them, remain. A bit of control freakery going on.

This is quite common in America. I'm amazed how free speech goes out the window with these extremist web sites.

Fran Barlow #96 ...I laughed and laughed. I want to post it in Andrew Bolt's "send me a tip" section

Re: my comment @110

I take it back.
It doesn't look like comments have been deleted. It's just SBVOR likes his own words and comments at least 3 times to every comment made by someone else.

From SVBOR,

In both cases, we see an on-going, uninterrupted 10,000 year cooling trend and we can CLEARLY see that there is nothing even remotely unusual about the latest warming.

The only remaining difference is that the Y axis on your chart is more compressed -- thereby better concealing the 10,000 year cooling trend.

So, there *has* been a cooling trend during this interglacial. Who knew?

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Posted by: Paul UK | March 1, 2010 6:49 PM sez:

âSBVOR likes his own words and comments at least 3 times to every comment made by someone else.â

Nope, I simply took pains to comprehensively debunk on my site the lies which the propagandists at RealClimate would not allow me to debunk on their site.

Blogger.com imposes a limit on comment size. That required me to breakup my rebuttal into multiple comments. If I were as inclined to smear you as you are inclined to smear me, I could launch a pretty vicious attack right now on your failure to comprehend. But, that would be childish, eh?

SBVOR,

Sorry, but I'm easily confused - what was your point about Andrew Bolt's latest fibs?

SBV writes

>*Jakerman (March 1, 2010 5:43 PM) claims I: *âcherry pick two sites [Vostok (Antarctic) & GISP2 (Arctic)]â*

Wrong SB I claim you *âcherry pick two sites [Vostok (Antarctic) & GISP2's Greenland]â*

I then linked you to GISP2 [global reconstructions](http://www.gisp2.sr.unh.edu/DATA/Obrien.html). Note: layer count ages at top depths (in yr BP) where 0 BP represents AD
1950 SUMMER to AD 1949 SUMMER, the data end at BP = -30 = 1980.

Now try reasserting your claims using the GISP2 global data.
I.e. please use the global data to critique your claims that:

>*At Vostok, we see -- just in the last 10,000 years -- 10 periods which were warmer than today.*

>In the case of Greenland, we see -- just in the last 10,000 years -- 12 periods which were warmer than today. And, that is based upon the likely FALSE assumption that the MWP was COOLER than today.

I.e. these warmer periods disapars when you use global resolution.

SBV continues:

>Fine, if Jakerman or anybody else has any other equally credible temperature data for the entire 10,000 to 12,000 year period of the Holocene, letâs see it.

Combine GSP2 global reconstructions with the [best avaliable higher resolution reconstructions](http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/pubs/pcn/pcn.html).

@87:

FYI, I have a very solid academic background in statistics.

Is that how you came to equate (on your site) an absence of statistical significance with 95% confidence in a completely different hypothesis? One marvels at what hitherto unknown rules of probability you must have discovered.

>*So, there has been a cooling trend during this interglacial. Who knew?*

Ian Plimer didn't, he reckons the current warming is interia from the rise of out the last glacial.

when and why did global warming become climate change .to a laymen this seems to of happened to make the population one step closer to doom . what is the meaning of changing the agenda. very easy to get sceptical

SBVOR, I didn't say that anyone who disagreed with me was a troll. I said that you are a troll. You have tried to disrupt the discussion with abuse, complaints about censorship and off-topic rants.

No more comments, please, unless they are on the topic of this post.

By Tim Lambert (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

>*I simply took pains to comprehensively debunk on my site the lies which the propagandists at RealClimate would not allow me to debunk on their site.*

By cherry picking from two sites and claiming the results were valid for global comparison.

Sorry, I just read Tim's latest post.

Some Hamfisted troll reiterated for the umpteenth time ...

when and why did global warming become climate change to sica laymensic this seems to ofsic happened to make the population one step closer to doom sic

[prolonged groan]

This is one of the more annoying features of the agnorati -- their failure to keep up with the stuff they are whining about. Anyone who has paid attention on any side would know the answer to this question, so really it is just an irritating strawman disguised as a question.

Hamfisted, it is time for you to do some homework:

1. Look up UNFCCC in google ...
2. Find out what the initialism stands for
3. Note the date
4. Read the UNFCCC founding document
5. Report back with your findings

Extra credit:

1. Seek out the name "Frank Luntz"
2. Find out who he was and what he had to say about the term "climate change" and when he said it
3. Compare it with your thesis
4. Report back

By Fran Barlow (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

[I started out writing this with plentiful apologies and euphemisms to spare SBVOR's feelings but somewhere along the way - perhaps through having read more of SBVOR's comments on Deltoid today - that mood just ummm evaporated I guess]

SBVOR

FYI, I have a very solid academic background in statistics.

You wouldn't lie to us would you SBVOR? I'm afraid I'm going to need to see an audited copy of your official academic transcript before I'd be (half) willing to believe your story. Maybe in your own mind you believe that your SBVOR character construct has actually undertaken the statistical studies that you never have but this would be your delusion I'm sorry, not ours. That quote from you is a lie.

SBVOR | March 1, 2010 5:01 PM:

Adios, Lambert!

SBVOR | March 1, 2010 5:07 PM:

Hey! Lambert!

And I was so looking forward to SBVOR not coming back. Oh, well, guess you can't trust these nutcases.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

when and why did global warming become climate change .to a laymen this seems to of happened to make the population one step closer to doom . what is the meaning of changing the agenda. very easy to get sceptical

HAMLOCK the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established in 1988, so it's not a new term. it refelcts the fact that global warming is not the only thing that changes in atmospheric consituents can cause - there's changed precipitation patterns and changes in regional climatic conidtions for example.

Occasionally someone will claim it used to be called "global warming" and now it's "climate change" because the warming has stopped, which of course it hasn't, but the weak-minded are often sucked in by this argument.

thank you gaz a true gentleman fran on the other hand is typical of why this debate has become so harmful playing the man and not the ball.i am justed puzzeled with the weather right now. we seem to be in a cycle just as the weather was in the 70s same rain same temps. all the forcasts of drought cyclones dying reefs bushfires etc etc arent happining. so then, you can see how people are becoming sceptical

As a teacher, Gaz, I am disappointed that you did Hamfisted's homework for him/her. The text he offers strongly recommends the inference that he or she skyved off at school too.

How will they ever learn if they expect others to do their thinking for them? That surely is one reasonwhy they repeat such crap.

That, or the desire to be annoying ...

By Fran Barlow (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Dave C says:
>Tim, if you're not already doing it, is it possible for you to work with Pinker to put out another, formal statement on the implications of Pinker's research? Perhaps one that addresses remarks made since the debate (such as Nova's).

Even if she wrote another one that even Nova couldn't pretend meant something else, Nova wouldn't accept it. From her latest rant:

>even if Pinker thinks Monckton is wrong, even if Lambert gets a quote from Pinker saying Monckton is totally, utterly wrong, or that the IPCC did interpret the full implications of her work, this doesnât prove he is, or they did.

And then she goes on to entirely ignore everything Pinker and Wild say about the science.

By Tim Lambert (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

@Chris O'Neill #130: I don't know if mentioning a drought would be effective. I saw some dumb article the other day claiming that the only recent drought in Australia was in 2005 or something like that. Some people have a very bizarre notion of the truth. Of course if the author was born 2004 they may have that impression. Also note how the other poster conveniently ignores the occurrence of bushfires (the 2009 fires in Victoria are so forgettable). Bushfires can occur whether there is a drought or not, but you know you're dealing with someone with a tenuous grasp of reality when they essentially claim that there are no bushfires and therefore no global warming.

By MadScientist (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

chris im up here in qld the rain is breaking records 100 year old records.i think some of it is heading your way.remember last year south east qld the dams went aslow as 20% this year after this rain around 80% plus some.isnt it just typical of weather patterns weve had for 100 years because it has happened before.with out any great big theory AS FOR FRAN some ofus can barely type (notice),spelling might be bad to.i didnt go to uni and study science i left school in year 11.FRAN im not wanting you to do my thinking for me i can make up my own mind quite easily it just a shame there are people of your arrogance in this debate

Hamlock is the eptiome of the anti-intellectual "I know better than any paid-off scientist!" brigade.

Hamlock, I apologise if this sounds patronising and elitist but you know nothing about nothing.

Gaz said:

Fran, if someone else is going to do hamlock's thinking for him/her, it might as well be someone sensible.

In theory yes, but in practice, I'd have liked Hamfisted to actually have to confront the information he'd chosen to ignore so that he/she could be forced to deal with it. In your answer he/she still ducked and refused to retract his/her absurd claim.

My grandmother, a lovely woman let it be said, was one of those people who always agreed with the last person she heard. As a 10-year-old, it used to annoy me immensely to hear her change her opinion every ten minutes and as an exercise one day I asked if I could write down her opinion on something a piece of paper and put it in a draw with the date and time on it. When I'd hear her change her mind, I'd get out the piece of paper and say "excuse me but didn't you say the following just yesterday? and read from the notes..."

It made no difference because she'd simply say: "Oh yes, that's quite right ...". I realised then and there that someone who attaches no importance to the integrity of the process leading to the formation of an opinion really isn't worth persuading of anything. I eventually gave up serious discussion with her. When she would ask me what I thought I'd snort and say "don't you think so?" and giggle. To her credit, she saw the parody and would play along saying "you're probably right".

I suspect Hamfisted isn't really like my grandmother. She changed her mind to avoid conflict but basically had no interest in the state of the world or any matter at all. Hamfisted however, is simply a troll, who wants to pretend to plebeian insight but has nothing but the recycled half-remembered drivel he/she has read on the internet.

By Fran Barlow (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

FRAN WHY CANT I HAVE MY OWN POINT OF VIEW. because it not your view i must be wrong in your opinon.the truth of the matter there has been mistakes made in the ippc report some call them minor.some call them major there has been the email thing you know climate gate. there has been al gore movie mistakes(which is not in the report) and more all these things are making people wonder if they will uncover any more errors. iam only but a common person searching for the truth.the internet is probably the forum for finding some truths but there is a more crap as well .if i was ajury memeber ruling on the case of global warming i simply could hold up the assumtion beyond reasonable doubt

One can post some real hard science explication â complete with an Excel spreadsheet showing how the global climate system works with clouds â of why Monckton is essentially right but, as Pinker rightly points out, for partly the wrong reasons, on Tim Lambertâs Deltoid blog and the warmists all ignore it because they are mentally lazy:

http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/02/moncktons_mcluhan_moment.php#co…

Hereâs the fascinating part. One can post the very same stuff on Jo Nova and the effect is exactly the same!

Could the problem with this great global warming debacle be simply that we have inadvertently under-educated a whole generation (is it X? is it Y? or both?) with those easy soft options degrees (at best) and good doses at uni of post-modernist claptrap so badly that they all get a headache whenever asked to actually exercise their brains and all they can do is poor quality science or resort to endless nit picking disputes based more-or-less on the political spin surrounding the whole subject.

Or am I just another grumpy old (well educated) Generation Vee Dubya?

hamlock:

chris im up here in qld the rain is breaking records 100 year old records.

Lucky you.

i think some of it is heading your way.

Promises promises. We had a low producing Melbourne's record wettest day in 2005 which was handy but it didn't mean the end of the drought.

spelling might be bad to.i didnt go to uni and study science i left school in year 11

Continuing to year 11 didn't help your spelling much, so you probably wouldn't have learnt much about science either if you had stayed on. You can stop your trolling now.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Hamfisted said"

FRAN WHY CANT I HAVE MY OWN POINT OF VIEW

You can. I'm not stopping you. I have the view that you are either a moronic troll, or doing an excellent impression of one.

because it not your view i must be wrong

Because your "view", such as you have one, not only conflicts with what I know to be the case, but is self-evidently based on your obvious ignorance of matters salient. Your "view" has no ground to rest upon.

The rest of your stream of consciousness is every bit as vapid as what you posted earlier. Nobody but a moron could confuse what you have said with anything a rational person of average intelligence and erudition should deem as data.

The last sentence doesn't even make an unambiguous claim, making it entirely in keeping with the drivel you posted above.

By Fran Barlow (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Even if she wrote another one that even Nova couldn't pretend meant something else, Nova wouldn't accept it. From her latest rant:

even if Pinker thinks Monckton is wrong, even if Lambert gets a quote from Pinker saying Monckton is totally, utterly wrong, or that the IPCC did interpret the full implications of her work, this doesnât prove he is, or they did.

And then she goes on to entirely ignore everything Pinker and Wild say about the science.

I stand in awe. One moment we see her parsing Pinker's response to support her claims; the next we see her complaining that "those who promote alarm end up discussing opinions and the minutia of who-said-what, rather than the science itself". What does the word "science" even mean to such a person?

This is precisely why (I thought) another statement from an actual expert might help to settle the matter. Nova must have thought so as well, and it prompted her to issue this bizarre pre-emptive rebuttal.

She's playing games. She's trying to portray herself and Monckton as the experts, while laughing off the idea that a real expert might intervene in the debate.

I'd call her bluff. I still think a formal public statement from Pinker would not be in vain. Nova will carry on, of course, but it might help to further illuminate the issue for the sake of ordinary people.

Tim, not sure if you noticed but Jo Nova picked up on your comment "Presumably by "use the Stefan-Boltzmann radiative-transfer equation to evaluate the temperature change" Monckton means that you should treat the Earth as a black body, ie ignore the fact that the Earth has an atmosphere. But it does have an atmosphere so such a calculation will not give the correct value for climate sensitivity."

by saying that of course the earth is not a black body and so you use an emissivity term as Monckton has done in eq 18 of [this](http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/monckton/climate_sensitivity_reconsid…)

however Moonckton in that same piece goes on to say (about half a page later):
"Since the Earth/troposphere system is a blackbody with respect to the infrared radiation that Eqn. (20) shows we are chiefly concerned with, we will not introduce any significant error if ε = 1,"

So he does indeed revert to treating the earth as a black body.

Do you or anybody have any comment about the validity of treating emissivity as 1 - I note Monckton provides nothing to back up his claim that using 1 "will not introduce any significant error".

Cheers

Matt

[Hamlock said](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/02/andrew_bolt_takes_back_nice_wo…):

...all the forcasts [sic] of drought cyclones dying reefs bushfires etc etc arent [sic] happining [sic]. so then, you can see how people are becoming sceptical.

Two quick points Einstein...

  1. many of the forecasted changes are occurring; it's simply that an untrained eye cannot appreciate that this is so
  2. if some of the forecast changes occurred at the rate required that they manifest between the time of first forecasting, and now, then we'd be in so much do-do that there'd be no point attempting to do something about the global warming problem - or many other environmental problems, for that matter.

im [sic] not wanting you to do my thinking for me i [sic] can make up my own mind quite easily it [sic] just a shame there [sic] are people of your arrogance in this debate

  1. no-one wants to think for you
  2. some here might want you to learn to think properly for yourself
  3. you may well be able to "make up [your] own mind" - so what?
  4. it seems that your own (uneducated/untrained) arrogance in challenging that which you do not understand goes unnotice by yourself

if i was ajury [sic] memeber [sic] ruling on the case of global warming i [sic] simply could hold up the assumtion [sic] beyond reasonable doubt

...and this is exactly why our judicial system is flawed...

By Bernard J. (not verified) on 01 Mar 2010 #permalink

Mattb:

So he does indeed revert to treating the earth as a black body.

Indeed - I noticed that as well, and then I saw your comment. Monckton clearly isn't treating the Earth as a grey body.

It's also not clear from Nova's comments whether she realises that a "grey body" is another idealised situation. It isn't a catch-all category for anything that isn't a black body.

It's possible the Earth might be approximated as a grey body for certain purposes, but I don't think it's something you can just assume.

FRANNY whats a troll mean to you

Hamfisted continued:

whats a troll mean to you

Trolls come in many forms. You are for the most part what is called a "concern troll" (CT). One well-worn CT tactic is to pretend to be an innocient asking questions and to take umbrage when people object to you posting recycled nonsense, and to try to make the argument about tone rather than substance. If people take you up on it, you succeed in a thread hijack. The ee cummings syntax and poor typography adds to the insult and screams for a spelling/typo flame which allows you to act all bothered by "rudeness". If you watched Ian Plonker on Lateline with Monbiot, he was doing your CT schtick here.

Everyone is entitled to hold whatever opinion they like, no matter how absurd, but they aren't entitled to a supporting set of "facts" of their own choice. If you talk rubbish and get called on it, it's not your right to an opinion that is in question but your sanity or your insight. How you resolve that matter is up to you.

Personally I don't much care whether you really are a moron or are simply pretending to be one because you have personal problems. Either way you have no legitimate business here.

By Fran Barlow (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

Actually, I am very concerned about this - Hamfisted reckons it reached Year11, and yet its grasp of the English language doesn't even reach my 4th-grader's level of ability.

Personally, I believe morons who cannot grasp the basics of spelling, grammar, and punctuation should not be entitled to any sort of an opinion under any circumstances. There should be a bit of quality-control preventing demonstrable cretins from accessing any form of public forum until they have some basic literacy skills.

By Vince Whirlwind (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

Incidentally, you'll find some interesting comment on cretins and their opinions here:

By Vince Whirlwind (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

however Moonckton in that same piece goes on to say (about half a page later): "Since the Earth/troposphere system is a blackbody with respect to the infrared radiation that Eqn. (20) shows we are chiefly concerned with, we will not introduce any significant error if ε = 1,"

I seem to recall noting (all by myself! ;-) Monckton pulling that same trick a few years ago, and thus figuring out that his fantastical claims were...bull emissions.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

No Steve Short, you can't post a hard science explanation of how Monckton is "essentially right", because no such explanation exists.

By Tim Lambert (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

I'm still flabbergasted by this quote from Nova:

"[...]even if Pinker thinks Monckton is wrong, even if Lambert gets a quote from Pinker saying Monckton is totally, utterly wrong, or that the IPCC did interpret the full implications of her work, this doesnât prove he is, or they did."

Eh, say WHAT? Black is white! Up is down! Monckton knows a researcher's research better than the researcher! Fun times! *off to bash his head against a wall*

@138, the reason that people are ignoring you, Steve Short, is that Roy Spencer's theories on cloud cover influences have been looked at over and over.

The lazy people are the ones who cannot be bothered looking up the discussions which show why Spencer's arguments were rejected.

However, I can't explain why people are still trotting it out all these years after being discredited. I guess for much the same reasons they recycle all the other previously rejected anti-GW arguments, hoping one day if they repeat them enough times they'll stick.

good explanation franny now i know what a troll is thanks you taught me something today

Isn't SBVOR fun?

I've already discussed what Jones said with SBVOR, but found it impossible to convince him(her?) that a trend of +0.12C/decade does not equal a trend of 0.0C/decade. Oh well.

As for the alleged 'gang rape' of Lubos Motl, did you read what Motl wrote in that thread to provoke such a response!? Is such venom acceptable from someone who you agree with, just because you agree with them? What Lubos got thrown back at him was perfectly reasonable given what he posted, IMO.

When someone approaches the debate reasonably, regardless of the side they're on, I do my best myself (and encourage others) to respond reasonably. When someone is unreasonable or just flat out insulting, have at it!

118 jakerman,

I love interia. Can I quote that?

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

that it stu you sould teach a few of your mates that.this sould be a forum on trying to find true facts.not a personal attack on how they spell type or how smart they are some the people on this site are probably getting retrabution for things that happened to them at school. move on were all here to learn because one way or another this is going to cost you me and everybody else a fair bit of money in rising taxes and cost of living.so souldnt we all know what we are paying for

123 Fran,

This is nice because of the comment number but even nicer because you nailed the whole stoopid thing so succinctly.

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

128 Poe,

Yes?

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

156 Poe,

Ditto?

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

hamlock:

were all here to learn

In the unlikely event that you want to learn anything about the science behind global warming, you should look for what you want to know in the index at realclimate.org. The Deltoid blog is mainly for exposing the lies and other types of dishonesty that are told about the science behind global warming. e.g. this thread was about some of the hypocritical lying by Andrew Bolt and also about some of the dishonesty by Joanne Nova. If you ignore those lies and dishonesty then it doesn't reflect very well on your honesty either.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 02 Mar 2010 #permalink

TS, Yes :)

You can quote all my mis-spellings, as long as you do so with love.

;)

But come to think of it, why didn't interia make it into Heaven + Earth. It could snuggle in as an appropriate partial descriptor of figure 3.

>*I was suffering dire interia when I foolishily decided to included Martin Durkins fabricated chart (figure 3 above) to make claims about temperature that were less clear with genuine data.*

thanks for that site chris ill be there after i type this.have you seen catastrophe denied on the climate skeptics site.if not can you watch and then can you give me your opinion on what he says. it goes for 90 min.he raise some very intresting points.i watched with a opened mind,you on the other hand know a lot more than i do on this matter

Folks, some assistance please.

in the last paragraph in the initial blog post Tim has a go at Monckton for assuming earth is a black body. Jo Nova has a go at Tim on her blog by showing that Monckton uses emissivity = grey body. But as I've shown above Monckton then reverts to black body approximation as earth is practically a black body in the infra-red so it is ok to do this.

Either Monckton is correct, and it is ok to use a black body estimation, or he is wrong. If he is wrong why is he wrong? I assume from Tim's comments in the post that Tim thinks it is wrong, and significantly enough to make a fuss over it.

Cheers, Matt

Matt, poor fellow you are at a disadvantage, in that you care if you get things correct, thus you get stuck with doing Nova'a homework.

Did you catch [Arthur's post](http://arthur.shumwaysmith.com/life/)?

Arthur takes Monckton to task of on his previous [use and abuses](http://www.altenergyaction.org/Monckton.html).

My laypersons take is that:

1) Monckton says he had "*kindly done the calculation on the basis that the change in surface radiance mentioned in the Pinker paper would be the same at top of atmosphere.*" This was wrong as pointed out by Pinker via Lambert and later Wild cited by Lambert.

>*radiative forcing concept as used in the IPCC reports applies to changes at the tropopause, which cannot be directly compared to changes at the surface. Scattering and absorbing processes in the atmosphere are additive with respect to their effects on SSR at the surface, but may be opposed at the tropopause. Scattering aerosols enhance the reflectance of solar radiation back to space and reduce the solar flux to the surface. Absorbing aerosols also reduce the solar flux to the surface, but at the same time may reduce the reflectance back to space, opposed to the effects from scattering aerosols at the tropopause. Therefore, surface changes can expected to be larger than tropopause changes, and consequently are also not necessarily representative for (tropopause) radiative forcing estimates*

2) *[The StefanâBoltzmann law](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan%E2%80%93Boltzmann_law), states that the total energy radiated per unit surface area of a black body in unit time (known variously as the black-body irradiance), j*, is directly proportional to the fourth power of the black body's thermodynamic temperature*

So the SB Law has nothing to do with the atmosheric effect describe by Wild, and hence applying some StefanâBoltzmann correction factor dose not address nor correct the errors of Monckton assumption that "surface radiance mentioned in the Pinker paper would be the same at top of atmosphere".

Its complete farce. But what would I know, like Monckton I'm no scientist.

In short:

Monckton writes:

>*I had kindly done the calculation on the basis that the change in surface radiance mentioned in the Pinker paper would be the same at top of atmosphere, from which a climate-sensitivity calculation using the UN's method follows.*

Which is wrong as stated by Pinker, explained by Wild and cited by Lambert (i.e. wrong becasue of atmospheric effects).

>*Scattering and absorbing processes in the atmosphere are additive with respect to their effects on SSR at the surface, but may be opposed at the tropopause. Scattering aerosols enhance the reflectance of solar radiation back to space and reduce the solar flux to the surface. Absorbing aerosols also reduce the solar flux to the surface, but at the same time may reduce the reflectance back to space, etc., etc.*

Monckton continued:

>*However, since Pinker insists that it is the surface radiance that her paper addresses, one must of course use the Stefan-Boltzmann radiative-transfer equation to evaluate the temperature change corresponding to the change in radiance caused by the reduction in cloud cover.*

The Stefan-Boltzmann Law calculates raditaion as a function of temperature of a body. The Stefan-Boltzmann Law does not correct Monckton's error in equating the Surface radition with radiation at the Top Of Atmosphere. It does not addresss the atmospheric effects described by Wild.

Cheers Jakerman. My own investigations lead me down the path of wondering why Monckton thinks that a black body is a good approximation of the earth - ie emissivity. Wikipedia to the rescue explains that terrestrial surfaces of the earth do indeed have an emissivity close to 1, but clouds only 0.5... leading to an earthly figure of 0.64... hardly close to 1.

Guys I know whan I'm likely out of my depth:)

But Nova has added to her post:
"UPDATE: Monckton includes emissivity, then assumes itâs unity, because Earth is considered to be very close to a black body radiating in the IR. This is standard practice and even pro-AGW modellers Kiehl & Trenberth (1997, 2008) assume emissivity is 1 also. (Thanks Mattb for spotting the issue.)"

Tim after your comment above "resumably by "use the Stefan-Boltzmann radiative-transfer equation to evaluate the temperature change" Monckton means that you should treat the Earth as a black body, ie ignore the fact that the Earth has an atmosphere. But it does have an atmosphere so such a calculation will not give the correct value for climate sensitivity."

It would be appreciated if someone could head to nova's site and explain why Monckton has it wrong. I get my words mixed up:) Cheers

Matt

SBVOR:

I just updated the first line in my post so as to reduce the likelihood of others becoming as confused as you.

I did see the point you were trying to make, but it rests on a logical fallacy.

The models rule out a zero trend in temperature at the 95% level, over a period of 15 or more years. Sure enough, the data is consistent with this, showing a positive trend over this period of time, even if not statistically significant.

Finding a non-significant positive trend is very different from finding a zero trend. It certainly does not contradict the models.

To properly test the validity of the models, all you have to do is compare the predicted temperatures to the actual temperatures. If that test were to be statistically significant, then you might have reason to bother us.

MattB, it's error number 68 in Arthur Smith's [list of Monckton's errors](http://www.altenergyaction.org/Monckton.html#sec12):

>E68

>>the Earth/troposphere system is a blackbody with respect to the infrared radiation

>Wrong: Uh, no it isn't. That's sort of the whole point of the influence of greenhouse gases on radiative transfer. If Earth was a black body this would be much simpler. Earth's surface (not including any atmosphere) isn't far from a black body (though it doesn't ever carry a single uniform temperature, another issue for this), but Monckton specifically includes the troposphere here. Wrong.

By Tim Lambert (not verified) on 03 Mar 2010 #permalink

Cheers Tim. not surprisingly that was treated with howls of derision:)

>*not surprisingly that was treated with howls of derision:)*

I suppose we couldn't have expected a clear, evidenced based rebuttle so, noise and bluster is what they're left with. Heaven forbid that they accept Moncton's error and , and correct the record on Monckton's misuse of Pinker's paper. That would be a bit too sciency in process.

Instead this will go down in their Post-Normal-Narrative as a glorious victory for Monckton, and yet another reason to distrust scienctist for not accepting that Monckton has once again overtuned IPCC estimates.

Huraagh for Nova and her Post-Normal-Science following.

Huraagh for Nova and her Post-Normal-Science following.

She had an article in The Drum at the ABC today, and a few of her followers turned up.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 03 Mar 2010 #permalink

"Huraagh for Nova"

Is that a cheer or a retch?

Lotharsson, intellectual heavyweight Graeme Bird turned up. Who else does she need for support?

Thanks folks,

Your comments are noted.

By Louis Hissink (not verified) on 04 Mar 2010 #permalink

Graeme Bird is...entertaining, if you like that sort of thing.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 04 Mar 2010 #permalink

>*Is that a cheer or a retch?*

I choked, I thought I could push out a cheer but gagged in disgusts.

You know I actually thought Bird sounded quite reasonable... I agreed with a few of his posts. Chalk up a first. FYI he does not post at JoNova's site, I seem to recall her saying she would not have his general behaviour would not be tolerated.

Jakerman, what's the code for that nested quote deely? Perhaps use M to represent < and > for example, so it doesn't disappear :-D

I do wonder how Nova - and especially her acolytes - found the experience of putting forth and defending her wisdom in a more neutral-ish forum at the ABC - right after she said "follow the evidence" which was very handy to remind people of...

She dissed me for using Google, cutting and pasting links, and for not making my own arguments up (if I understood her correctly), at one point. Follow the evidence, Ms Nova...it matters not its URL or who wrote it if it's valid and accurate. Besides, people post links to your website to make arguments...

I thought Nova had gumption to try on "McIntyre destroyed the hockeystick" in front of an audience some of who would be guaranteed to know better. I saw jakerman riposte, and I added more. But of course it doesn't count if you link to RealClimate or Tamino ;-) I also did a bit on the hotspot (including "see that stratospheric cooling in your *own graph*"? What's that about? ;-)

It's still going on last I looked but I weary of it. I'm sure she personally is rusted on to her views so nothing will change there. She's commenting a fair bit last I saw, maybe to try and keep her brand intact with the faithful.

But far more importantly I'm going away for the weekend any minute now :-)

Stu - the word you want is "blockquote" without the double quotes and between angle brackets.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 04 Mar 2010 #permalink

Stu

sub "<" and ">" where you see "[" and "]"

[blockquote]quoted text[/blockquote]

You can also nest quotes:

[blockquote]quoted text from me

whereupon the interlocutor said ...

[blockquote]interlocutor's response[/blockquote]

[/blockquote]

By Fran Barlow (not verified) on 04 Mar 2010 #permalink

Lotharson - while it is nice to have the ABC give coverage to the issue I think that the comments there are next to useless - it is all posturing and no one is ever going to change their minds. IMO you are better saying what you have to say on her blog - but only if you are prepared to stick around through the hard yards and get some cred/rapport with the posters. The drum is all bluster and puffed chests and not a lot of substance.

Lotharsson,

My take is different to MattB's, I think your time is better spent on a more neutral site like the Drum than on Nova's site. If the the Novarian PNSs dominated the comments unchallenged on the Drum then it would give a different perception than as it stands now with their claims being challenged with evidence. Your work there was appreciated.

yeah I guess it depends on numbers of people who read the comments other than those who are commenting. Make no mistake I have no dillusions that my time spent at the Nova site is contributing to a better planet:)

TS, The extended Bird makes me giggle!

MattB #187

"Make no mistake I have no DILLUSIONS that my time spent at the Nova site is contributing to a better planet:)"

Never was a truer word spoken in jest.

191 jakerman,

Some find it very offensive, but like you, I find it hilarious.

BTW some of the comments were directed at me. GMB makes assumptions about all sorts of stuff, including the gender of commenters.

By TrueSceptic (not verified) on 06 Mar 2010 #permalink

TrueSceptic - OMFG, I stopped reading The Extended Bird after a few pages. I figure I'd got the gist by then. He must have been on his meds again at The Drum ;-)

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 07 Mar 2010 #permalink

I think your time is better spent on a more neutral site like the Drum than on Nova's site. If the the Novarian PNSs dominated the comments unchallenged on the Drum then it would give a different perception than as it stands now with their claims being challenged with evidence.

That was my calculation too. I suspect most of the Novarians are totally uninterested in flaws in her position, and my time is generally quite limited so it's better spent where a more open audience may be lurking.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 07 Mar 2010 #permalink

[Stu](http://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/02/andrew_bolt_takes_back_nice_wo…),

Here at Deltoid you can use [markdown](http://daringfireball.net/projects/markdown/dingus) to produce blockquotes _(and other __stuff__)_ with a few less keystrokes.

>Just put a forward chevron [>] in front of each block of text you want to blockquote.

>>Put two chevrons in front for nested blockquotes.

>>>Or three...

Also, bracketing URLs with chevrons obviates markdown's obnoxious tendency to break URLs containing underscores [_]

By luminous beauty (not verified) on 07 Mar 2010 #permalink

I also found some delightful ad homs from Ms Nova (although the grammar and spelling appears to be deteriorating, and there was that vacuum gaffe reported on the other thread - so I think it plausible that someone is masquerading as Ms Nova to defend her honour or reputation or something...)

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 07 Mar 2010 #permalink

How much credit do you give to computer modeling for AGW?In the reasearh i've undertaken thanks to Fran,they can't be taken to seriously,the fact that they don't take into acccount cloud cover ,is a real promblem.In my own research,i took note of the huge amount of evapouration we had from the months Aug 2009-Jan 2010.This in my theory was due to the unusually high amounts of Northerly winds we had.In the same period it was also noted that it was very dry and hot.Since then Feb and Mar have been humid and very wet.My question therefor is, if the temp and weather in my local area is this way ,how can any person feed in enough of the relevant amount of data to make a trust worthy model.Temperatures ,evapouration, clouds, winds, rain, snow they are never constant they are variable.No two days in weather are the same,so how can these models even come close to telling us what the climate will be like into the future.It does'nt matter how good or big these computers are they are only as good as the information they are feed.PERSONLY i can't see how enough of each local weather paterns and the huge amount of variables could ever be included to come to a model we could 95% trust.Now i am not trolling ,iam looking for answers, the science is definitively not settled.Thanks to Fran i have reasearched and there are more questions than answers. This of course is SCIENCE.

Argument from personal incredulity is rarely convincing:

Personally I can't believe hamlock is sincere in his/her proclamations of sincerity, since hamlock shows little understanding of the case for AGW and the efficacy or otherwise of models, all of which can be easily found by those who truly desire to learn.

I suspect that argument will prove unconvincing to at least hamlock.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 08 Mar 2010 #permalink

Lotharsson.Point being. Personal attack.All i asked for were answers to the debate.Science is far from settle. The problem being we can't just shut the book on it and say this is what's happening.Just on the internet there's as many sites supporting AWG as there is rebuffing AGW.So there must be as many people supporting AGWas there is rebuffing AGW. Hardly settled.

God bless you, Hamlock.

hamlock:

No two days in weather are the same,so how can these models even come close to telling us what the climate will be like into the future.It does'nt matter how good or big these computers are they are only as good as the information they are feed. i can't see how enough of each local weather paterns and the huge amount of variables could ever be included to come to a model we could 95% trust.

You are talking about a weather model, not a climate model. Weather forecasting is an initial value problem, climate modelling is not. This has all been done before. Google "initial value problem" "boundary value problem" site:relaclimate.org.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 08 Mar 2010 #permalink

We don't we just give Hamlock a nice shiny ball to keep him occupied. Run along now, Hamlock. The adults are busy.

Shorter hamlock: science fairly represented by averaging all the claims made in blogs.

Science is far from settle. The problem being we can't just shut the book on it and say this is what's happening.

There are always more questions to be investigated, even better explanations to be found, and uncertainty can always be reduced - anyone who says or expects otherwise does not know how science works.

But the key questions of science are settled *enough* to be distinctly alarmed and start doing something about it.

Just on the internet there's as many sites supporting AWG as there is rebuffing AGW.So there must be as many people supporting AGWas there is rebuffing AGW.

So we have a new way to determine answers to scientific questions - how many supporting sites there are on the Intertubes. What a relief that astroturfing turns out to be a scientific activity! And all of those antiquated science "journals" that take up so much space in the library can go the way of the dinosaurs. The noble PR firms can now claim R&D tax rebates and the total amount of science can dramatically increase for a relatively small marginal cost. I imagine DenialDepot will be putting in for their tax rebate.

Try looking in to how the tobacco industry campaigned against the science that showed that its products were harmful. Then ask yourself if the same methods are being used in climate change, updated for the Internet age - and if they were, would you expect to see a whole lot of websites disputing AGW on grounds that might not stand up to scrutiny?

Hamlock, if you're seriously after evidence you can find it. But right now you look just like a whole bunch of commenters in the past who were more interested in making excuses for their beliefs than assessing the evidence. I truly hope I've misread where you're coming from.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 08 Mar 2010 #permalink

I'm off to set up a few more pro-AGW websites to settle the science a bit more in our favour.

Lotharsson.Point taken thankyou for being more sincere.My point is there has been a lot of good science achived on the subject,but alot of good science has also been ignored.The millions of volcanos below the ocean are said to have the most effect on heating the ocean.The one's under the Artic might explain for some of the Artic's shelf ice decreasing.What about the sun may it play a bigger roll in temprature.Positive feed on the models is there to much being applied to the modeling. There are so many variants to come to a conclusion.After all my models are right it's the climate thats wrong.

...but alot of good science has also been ignored.

You know this...how? You don't appear to even understand the scientific case for anthropogenic global warming, so it beggars belief that you can point out quality research that was "ignored".

You need to start educating yourself. Strange as it may appear, the "problems" with the science that you claim have ALL been considered by climate scientists already.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 08 Mar 2010 #permalink

So why do they only classify co2 as the cause for GW.In the 70's they said that the globe was in for global cooling.They could just as easy be wrong again but this time there is a hell of a lot of associated costs,as well maybe one day a loss of sovereignty.Our countries might lose the capability of be able to govern themselves if we sign off on a agreement with the UN.Could this be possible?

Shorter hamlock:

Here are some more talking points. I don't care if they've already been shown to be wrong because I'm Open Mindedâ¢. Anyone who points out that they're wrong is engaging in Personal Attacks⢠because I'm Just Asking Questionsâ¢.

Chris thanks, I haven't yet because I think I might have mental diarrhea and my brain is about to explode.To much imformation not enough time to digest.

Chris I have been to real climate.Reading about the peer review process at the moment.

Hamlock are you trolling?

Was it you who wrote

this is why the warmers wont debate their sience it simpley doesnt stack up. if only the broarder public could view your doco i feel the warmers would be under alot more pressure to improve their transparancey. GREAT WORK KEEP IT UP

on 1 March 2010?

And was it you who wrote

lotharasson i considered you one of the smarter persons to debate this issue.after reading that i wonder.the earth had climate change since it evolved and know one every had to pay a tax for the privlage

on 4 March 2010?

Or are you serious about learning about differentiating the truth from the lying crap now?

Hamlocks posts are an embarrassment (for him or her, that is).

This chestnut got the old trollometer buzzing: *In the 70's they said that the globe was in for global cooling*

No 'they' didn't. Very few scientists actually did. And even these few argued that if greenhouse gas emissions contined to increase, this would negate any counter-effects of dimming caused by sulphate aerosols. Beside, hamlock, who is the 'they' that you are referring to?

My advice is to read up on the basic empirical literature before wading in here with any more simple and embarrassing posts.

By Jeff Harvey (not verified) on 09 Mar 2010 #permalink

>*This chestnut got the old trollometer buzzing: In the 70's they said that the globe was in for global cooling*

My meter broke when Hammy said:

>*alot of good science has also been ignored.The millions of volcanos below the ocean are said to have the most effect on heating the ocean.*

hamlock, here is some more [good science](http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2835581.htm) that has also been ignored:

>*if the sun stopped shining on Venus tomorrow, it would cool, and mainly thanks to CO2. A vacuum stops energy loss quite well (think of a Thermos) but the GHG's emit heat via IR radiation to space. So thanks to CO2, Venus would cool faster than if it had an atmosphere of O2.*

Well is there or isn't there under water volcanos.My research tells me there are millions or this incorrect aswell.

hamlock,

If the oceans were heating up from below, then ask your self how is the [land surface is heating faster](http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/mean:240/plot/hadcrut3vgl/me…)?

Who ever gave you that information about volcanoes, ask them for the volcanoe forcing over time. Ask for their evidence that shows how volcanoe activity continues to rise over time. Then once again ask yourself my question question again.

Jono Veg:

hamlock, here is some more good science that has also been ignored:

Thanks for the irony, but I think hamlock is still learning about the concept of radiation.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 09 Mar 2010 #permalink

hamlock:

I have been to real climate.Reading about the peer review process at the moment.

So why are you wasting everyone's time trolling on this blog?

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 09 Mar 2010 #permalink

Thanks for the irony, but I think hamlock is still learning about the concept of radiation.

Isn't ironic radiation what you get from an "iron sun"?

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 09 Mar 2010 #permalink

Lotharsson wins the interentz for today!

Only a fool is 100% sure,a scientist is always open to new ideas.

Only a fool is 100% sure,a scientist is always open to new ideas.

Indeed. (But as they also say, one's mind should not be so open that one's brains fall out.)

So look at the AGW "debate" - as an example revisit some of the threads on The Drum if you like, or some of the websites. A lot of denialists are 100% sure that AGW is wrong. They all disagree on why, but that's a mere detail that does not concern them ;-)

Now look at the IPCC AR4 report, specifically the definition and **frequent use** of terms that describe a **level of uncertainty**. Is that what you would expect from shoddy "work", perhaps designed to prop up a pre-conceived position or come to a pre-determined "result"?

And then go back in the history of climate science to see if the scientists were open to new ideas as the science developed. A lot of "new ideas" adoption may have happened when you weren't paying attention to the field - but that doesn't mean it didn't happen.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 10 Mar 2010 #permalink

Lotharsson. Ihave come to this site to have my questions answered.I thought this would be a better site to get answers unlike the other blogs were it is all about personal attacks.Some might say we have been over all the stuff that Iam coming up with before.I haven't,I'am new to this.I have the belief that GW is not man made,but I'am also open minded enough to challange my mind to come to a better postion on understandig the whole issue.My biggest problem with AGW is that has become to political and there for is very open to curruption.This is my gretest fear .Is there an agenda from the UN to rule the world.People on the AGW it's like a religon,nothing wrong with that,but with there great belief do they miss some of the things happening around them.After the positons countries are going to take will not achive much,but at what expense to the people on this planet.In my opinon it will be a big merry go round of money and really not achiving any net gain to for the planet.Wealthy countries will punished, poor countries will be rewarded.Will Australians standards of living be greatly impacted by these moves, I think they will.SO thats why I am here to find out the facts for I thought this might be more understanding of a person wanting to learn more and also to try and make my points as well.I'am not nearly as smart as the people on this site nor do I PRETEND TO BE .B ut i didn't expect to get bullied here either.Some of the stuff I've posted might look stupid ,but I don't know how to post links yet.Hope I haven't upset people I just wanted answers with out all the bullshit.

hamlock, if you really want to learn you should start with the science. Step back from the politics for a bit, and get familiar with how the scientific understanding of AGW has developed.

If you don't want to read the IPCC reports, you could work your way through Spencer Weart's "[The Discovery of Global Warming](http://www.aip.org/history/climate/index.html)"

or take a course (for non-science majors) with David Archer, University of Chicago - [for free](http://geoflop.uchicago.edu/forecast/docs/lectures.html)!

hamlock:

I am here to find out the facts

How does making strawman statements here like:

Only a fool is 100% sure,a scientist is always open to new ideas

help you to find out the facts? You might be trying to find out the facts but you certainly have plenty of attitude. Maying you should think about leaving out the attitude.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 10 Mar 2010 #permalink

hamlock - what foram said. You're apparently trying to poke holes in science you don't yet understand. Not only is it a waste of *your* time, it's a common trolling tactic - which is why people who've seen it used a hundred times before are skeptical of your motives when they see you using it.

So your best bet - both to avoid appearing to be a troll, and to try and bring down the scientific case if that's your primary goal - is to start by understanding the climate science behind the case for AGW from the ground up - and go as far as you can manage. (No, I don't understand it all either. I can get the basics, and a bit more than that in many areas. But once it gets too deep, despite being smart in other areas, I don't have enough knowledge to reliably understand or debate the finer points.)

Once you understand that, you'll:

(a) have a much better understanding of why the scientists say what they do about it, which should allow you to stop yourself making arguments that miss the target
(b) be in a *much* better position to try and find holes in the science.

By Lotharsson (not verified) on 10 Mar 2010 #permalink

Thank you for your advice,I'll take it all onboard.It is hard to seperate the politcs because that is mostly what we hear and see on the news.My head tends to get in front of my brain so to speak.Iwill start at the begining instead of half way,I'll continue to follow this post with great intrest."I'LL BE BACK"no pun to Arnie but Calfornia is the USA'S biggest basket case.

There's a well composed piece at The Dum today on the kind of faux skepticism that hamfisted and his kind like running ...

Climate debate: opinion vs evidence, Stephan Lewandowsky

It reads in part:

Does this indubitable scientific consensus guarantee that the evidence concerning climate change is necessarily irrefutable?

No.

As with any other scientific fact, new evidence may come to light that can overturn established theories. Two core principles of science are scepticism and falsifiability â that is, scientific facts must be subject to sceptical examination and they must be refutable in principle. New evidence may overturn the current view that HIV causes AIDS, and new evidence may revise our expectation that gravity will have adverse consequences for those who jump off the Sydney Harbour Bridge. Likewise, new evidence may force a revision of our understanding of climate change.

It is however utterly inconceivable that the current scientific consensus about climate change will be overturned by conspiracy theories that are inversions of reality.

By Fran Barlow (not verified) on 10 Mar 2010 #permalink

Thanks Fran but we've moved on from there.I read from The "Discovery of Global Warming"The most striking news came from studies of ancient climates recorded in Antarctic ice cores and elsewhere. Carbon dioxide and temperature had always been linked: anything that caused one of the pair to rise or fall would lead to a rise or fall in the other.
I read or heard that CO2lags temp by about 800 years.Could some one please explain which of these statements is correct ?

Ah yes. Who could ever forget this stunning "paper"?

Thanks foram. I had a look at that post, it answered my question.

Fran thanks, a very good article.

hamlock:

I read or heard that CO2lags temp by about 800 years.Could some one please explain which of these statements is correct ?

Why are you so lazy and expect others to do your homework for you? If you took the hint from my previous suggestions you would have tried Google "800 years" @realclimate.org which points you to the explanation you are asking about. By the way, "which of these statements is correct?" is a presumptuous question.

By Chris O'Neill (not verified) on 10 Mar 2010 #permalink