Changing Odds on New Nominee

A commenter on In The Agora pointed out that Judge Garza is not actually from New Orleans, but from Texas. His office is in Texas, he himself is from Texas, but the 5th Circuit that he sits on is headquartered in New Orleans. Edith Clement, on the other hand, is a judge on the same circuit but she is actually from New Orleans. She was in private practice in New Orleands for nearly 20 years before being nominated as a Federal judge. And remember that Clement was the one everyone thought was the nominee the night before and the morning of the John Roberts announcement, so she is obviously on the short list. Add to this the fact that both Manuel Miranda and Sen. Jon Cornyn have said that Bush is likely to name a woman to the new vacancy and that adds up to a pretty solid guess. So I'll put Clement at 4-1, Garza at 5-1 and Gonzales at 6-1.