If you aren't worried about bird flu you probably aren't in the poultry business. The pandemic that has yet to materialize for humans is already here for birds, where it is called a panzootic. And it is taking a toll. When highly pathogenic H5N1 surfaced again in Germany and France in the heart of western Europe Japan banned imports of German poultry while Egypt banned French and German poultry. Egypt already has more bird flu than any country outside of Asia, so they are just trying to prevent a bad situation from getting worse.
Meanwhile West Virginia's annual poultry festival was canceled after neighboring Virginia reported antibodies to a low pathogenic avian flu strain (unspecified) in a flock of turkeys. The 54,000 birds will be destroyed and all live poultry sales in Virginia have been banned. You might not be worried about bird flu but it is a mortal danger to the poultry industry.
Bans on imports are meant to prevent the spread of the virus. The highly pathogenic H5N1 is getting around Europe, although exactly how is unclear. Wild birds may be spreading it locally, but commercial poultry movements are also thought to be important (hence the bans). Banning something doesn't mean it will stop, of course. Illegal movement and smuggling are known means of movement. So Dutch and Czech customs are using trained dogs to sniff out poultry products, both birds, dead and alive, and products such as feathers and eggs. The Dutch say they have already confiscated 1,626 kg of prepared poultry meat, 203 kg of raw poultry meat and 245 eggs ( Farmers Weekly, UK). Since we only inspect a fraction of imports in the US, this is a potential route for the virus to reach the American poultry industry.
If you aren't in the poultry business, don't worry. Be happy. What could happen?
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What could happen to those far away from poultry industry, especially the small holders and fanciers who have a few chickens in their backyard for a few eggs for the neighbourhood or breeding rare breeds for shows? A lot. When the bird flu hysteria hits the society groups will be set up against eachother accusations as 'terrorists with timebombs who endanger the public health = hobby poultry. Children that aren't allowed to play with others because they have three chickens in a coop in the garden.
The fanciers and small holders (from who some earn a small living of their pure business) will accuse the poultry industry for their irresponsible behaviour not to vaccinate preventively against H5N1 while the vaccins are there, plenty of them!
All millions of people who are in one way or another connected to poultry in general will be drop outs of society.
And the government supports the irrisponsible behaviour of the mass producing bio industry (virus factories) by not demanding/allowing preventive vaccination because they think trade is more important than public health.
It's not the bird flu hitting the commercial and privat poultry, it's the opposing groups with different goals and intensions that will have a huge conflict. When H5N1 arrives in the US the media will jump right on top of it, show the cullings, the 'victims' who are supplied with anti viral drugs, interviews with people for checkup in hospitals etc. The media will you do believe its the end of the world 'because the pandemic is on it's way'. And fueled by the media the groups will jump on top of eachother affecting friendships, relationships and family ties. That's the scenario that will happen in the US.
Don't forget the traumatized owners of pets like cuddle chickens, geese and ducks from children and grown ups. The razzia's in Holland led to several suecides of most elder people who had nothing but their chickens or goose. A traumatized 11 yo girl, they catched her (wild) cuddle duck of the municipal pond and gave it a deadly shot, the other wild ducks they left alone 'because they were wild'. Owners of pets will try to hide their animals and door to door searchings, like now in Germany, will happen. Thus governmental troups will violate your private area, breaking in into gardens when you're at work or forcing themselves into your bedroom if you have hidden a chicken, eggs etc. That's what happend in Holland in 2003. The government opened a special telephone line to let people betray others of which they thought they had hided their poultry. Just like in WW2 when they were hunting for Jews. There are always people who like to betray others. The ones who were visited by the governemental troups will never ever trust anybody in the neighbourhood, whether they had poultry or not.
Groups will stand against eachother and the social and psycholgical damage of 'only' an animal disease is far more bigger than you all will ever expect to be.
There is only one way out: vaccinate all poultry as much as possible: for the breeding stock no problem, the broilers and short living meat animals: don't concentrate them. Keep track of movements of trucks, feed, veterinairians, inspectors etc. Keep a diary who visits your broiler farm. If all breeders, layers and hobby poultry is vaccinated there is not much left for the virus, huh?
But the pharmaceutical industry and the poultry industry, thus trade, will never allow that to happen.
Dollars before public and animal health!
The same as in Europe. Although we are here in Holland allowed to vaccinate our hobby poultry against H5N1, so we are as poultry keepers the only ones who are safe and our neighbours can sleep calm too and let the children play with eachother.
And the poultry bans? They are an instrument of trade wars... better regulate legal transport under controlled conditions than ban, that gives smuggling and thus a higher risk on spreading the virus. One dead parrot infected by vinches in quarantine is less bad than a commercial stable with 40.000 turkeys infected by an employe who trades illegal in wild birds with Asia.
Good luck to you all in any group residing, you'll find out what happens, or take control of the situation. You know what to do. Bribe some people in government for allowing preventive vaccination and you save the nation! You should be a good example to Europe.
Sigrid van Dort
Holland
(available for contact about this subject via editors of this website)
Is this you Sigrid?
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meetdocs/2004_2009/documents/cm/595/59524…
I am not sure which side of the vaccination of poultry you are on. Could you be more specific please.
Dear M. Kruger,
Is my English that bad?
My name in the registration of the EU parliament is because of the cartel constructions of studbooks I opposed to (I'm a liberal) and as we call 'attached or hidden-sales' which is forbidden by the EU Competition Committee. Like car manufacturers refusing to sell parts to not-dealers. That's a cartel construction too.
You must be member of a studbook in order to get your horse registrated as pure bred breed. That's cartel too. It's solved by the studbooks themselves. But that's off topic.
I know the way in the EU/EC therefore my name pops up. Digging deeper on the internet you'll find my name along with other hobby poultry and small holder organisations due to an invitation for a meeting with the European Commission of agriculture to tell about the concequences on the people of the Dutch bird flu outbreak in 2003 (April 8 2004).
I'm FOR vaccination, FOR common sense and FOR responsible behaviour when there's a threat. I'm NOT an extremistic animal rights or anti bio-industry fighter. Just a realist who thinks the clock ticks and we're becoming short in time, therefore I write here and there on the internet and in magazines/papers, give interviews etc.
I'm concerned about the atmoshere, the media and other voices create in the US.
So keep both your feet on the ground is my message from across the ocean.
And I warn you because we've gone thru it, a mild outbreak compared to what can come now and the impact was devastating for the people in the infected regions and for the social structures and trust in the government and even future.
The US is famous for it's interference in critical situations, so be an example how to respond properly and with responsibility for the people's health on this 'terror'.
This might clear up on which 'side' I am? Thanks for reading my first post!
Best regards,
SIgrid van Dort
Holland
Addition:
I checked you out Mr. M. Kruger and found out you're really afraid of a pandemic and your sources are epidemiologists and other scientists as prove for the trueness of your fear.
You have the wrong sources. All scientists tell you there will emerge a pandemic flu from H5N1, and they have 'prove', old samples from the Spanish flu they reconstructed to a bad bug etc.
Here in Europe we have also such professors, like Prof. Dr. Ab Osterhaus, highly appriciated and a good scientist. He also was the messenger of the pandemic.
Do you know why? Fundraising for research. Nothing wrong with that, the more research the more they learn for us, could be usefull. Not for a pandemic but for the general knowledge of creating vaccins.
He tells now different stories because everybody got tired of his pandemic message. Other scientists stood up and told a quite different version of the 'threat'.
H5N1 can not alter in a deadly human flu in the human body.
The shell of proteïn of the virus does not easily attach to the human cell. 2/3 of the world population is located in Asia where billions had contact with the virus and a few became ill and died.
It's the genetical vunerability of those persons, they caught it. The cluster infection in one family on Sumatra, the several brothers and sisters that got it is part of the clue.
The only way H5N1 could become potentially dangerous is when it mixes with a 'normal' influenza virus in a pig.
The pig is the mixing vessel of viruses that could be potentionally dangerous for humans, that's known for ages.
The pig should be ill of 'normal' influenza that also can infect us, humans, when the pig is infected (and becoming ill) by H5N1.
That should have happened already if H5N1 is capable of infecting a pig, since 1997 when the first birds got, proven, infected by H5N1.
That did not happen. H5N1 is a poultry disease. Never lots of pigs became ill or died of H5N1.
So the chance of a pandemic triggered by H5N1 is almost zero even with the pig between us, as mixing vessel, and infected birds.
H5N1 altering itself by mutation will still make it a bird virus.
But the virus can't harm us, unless you have the wrong genes, which is probaby the cause in Indonesia that 81 persons died of H5N1 on a 245,452,739 population, divided into 28.8% 0-14 yo = 34,749,582 persons, 65,8% 15-64 yo = 80,754,238 persons.
Millions have contacted the virus, due to the way of living in Indonesia.
You yourself have 0,00000033 % chance to die of bird flu if you live with infected poultry in your house, eat and sleep with it, and that can free range everywhere outside.
Don't forget to slaugter a sick chicken before it dies, it would be a waste of good food, tomorrow it can be dead. That's the way people think in the Kampongs. So being scared for H5N1 itself isn't realistic actually.
The big scare is the reaction of the people because they are not informed about H5N1 and only heared doom scenario's of pandemics etc.
I've told the above a hundred times before to calm down people.
What's your life when you are all the time scared of something that 'might' happen?
Being prepared for something that 'could' happen? Only fueled by the media and Those Who Can Know it.
That's a waste of time, enjoy your life, the pandemic triggered by H5N1 does NOT come. Maybe on a moment somewhere in future there will come a pandemic. You can be dead and burried by then. And you lived a life full of fear. You're longer dead than alive so make the best of it.
Don't waste your time in searching for prove all Americans will die soon etc etc.
Bird flu scare is money making too. Like every fad.
So better tell the media to stop to blow up the threat.
The threat IS there, for the animals and maybe some unfortunate others who are not informed how to handle infected poultry by any virus.
We got eye infections by H7N7, took a small week. So what?
Cancer because of polution is more a realistic threat for your health and life.
Better put energy in calming down the people. As I want to warn you for in the above posts.
It's not the bug, it's the public opinion that will cause all the trouble and hysteria.
Therefore: vaccinate the poultry and the problem is gone.
You will sleep well too then, just in case you have the wrong genes you know not sooner then when you're infected and become ill. Remember: you have a chance of 0,00000033 % when you live together with infected poultry in your house.
Don't cross the street or drive a car. If you've energy left better tell vaccination of poultry is the solution.
Good night here,
Sigrid van Dort
Holland
Sigrid-Okay now I have it. You would make a good American and thats not an insult. Although you appear to be left of center or as we call them a lib a lot of what you have written in the EU and in petitions makes perfect sense.
I really and I mean really dont know for sure about vaccination of all the poultry in the EU. It only takes one endemically infected bird, ferret, weasel, fox, dog, cat to get past it. Vietnam vaccinated their poultry with off antigen vaccine and they seem to have only created healthy, endemically infected birds. It worked for a while though.
Its almost like vaccinating humans for the flu, the coverage sucks because not everyone will or can take the shots and someone always slips by. I know I always got sick from it when I was perfectly healthy before taking it. Then there is the reason for taking it... You get better a day earlier than you would have before. Where is the effectivity against cost on that one? Then there are the strains that go floating thru a workplace, they dont often get the strains right on the vaccine so its like gargling salt water for a case of cancer.
Avian flu though is different and Revere posts here often about the amazing things this virus is doing. I have learned a lot here and thats one of the good things about EM, its political but when the great mans whiskers begins to speak on the subject we all go shush so we can hear. Then we beat the crap out of the left the right the middle as Americans are so wont to do. Then we wait to see who comes out right.
Right on this one though Sigrid is getting to live afterwards. I have a friend in Holland who is prepared for the BF and we trade notes often. She is a late in life parent who with her husband are absolutely disgusted with the legislative branch of the House of Orange. She relates that the UHC program that everyone is in over there is ill prepared and has shifted responsibility down to the local townships for the preparations. So the coverage will be very spotty there if Avian Flu comes. Some townships will do okay, others miserably. I fear for them as they are one family in the middle of an impending disaster. It reminds me of going to the beach to see a tsunami.
The US will fare bad enough from its many years of mismanagement all thru the last 20 years. A trillion dollars wouldnt fix the problem and I estimaed it to be somewhere in the area of 20 trillion dollars to just have everyone stay at home. Vaccination of poultry? There isnt that much vaccine on this planet. A new strain from just time in motion to vaccinate properly would be breaking out before they got the first 2 or 3 million done. Same problem that the Chinese and Vietnamese had. Its a holding action at best.
Dear Mr. Kruger, vaccination against H5 in the EU is limited to the hobby poultry and biological free ranging hens in Holland (+zoos). In Italy vaccination is allowed in certain areas against an H7 because its endemic like some LPAI's in the US and also here that sometimes spark a bit.
Concerning my political prevelances; that depends on the subject so from left to right and everything in between. Voting for elections is always a big problem for me. One party is good on social things, others on economics etc. seems there exists no 'ideal' party. Most of the time in economics I'm at right side (my own boss) but that conflicts with the social subjects, lol
There isn't a real plan for a pandemic, at least we are not informed about that. Don't forget we're 'cheese heads from the cold soil' not very easy to shake and stirr. Most don't believe the pandemic will come or at least they don't worry about it until its more realistic. Guess they are right. Lots of other things to bother about like tax paying.
Vietnam vaccinated 14 billion poultry in 2006. It worked. Vaccinations should be repeated every year. They were not fast enough to do that so some outbreaks occur again. It's a huge country and infrastructure isn't good everywhere. In Indonesia they frauded with the vaccin and it's not supported by the people: tempo dulu, take it easy. And 'no wealth no health', for both animals and humans. Some countries just can't organize a campaign because of all kinds of problems.
Vaccinating humans works for elderly and people in risk groups. You shouldn't do that when you're young and healthy. Here they give the seasonal flu jab for free to everybody above 60. That was 65 before this week. Because it works, saves 6000 lives a season.
Coverage of vaccination for animals is far more easier. Poultry receives some 15 vaccinations as a starter, so one extra isn't the problem, they are handled several times during their lives. Best is an eye drop system, just spray it, like NCD vaccination, or mix it with the drinking water. Problem today with H5 vaccination is that it must be injected so labour intensive. But the university here is experimenting with an eye drop vaccin, combined H5 and/or H7 + NCD. So that's on its way.
You need only to vaccinate with 'a(n)' H that matches the bad bug. Here we vaccinate with inactivated H5N2 from Intervet so when a bird is tested you can see which strain it's infected with, that's called the DIVA method - differentiating Infected from Vaccinated Animals.
So technically there isn't problem for NOT vaccinating poulty, it costs a bit but industry can put that on the price of the product. When everybody is vaccinating there is no competition problem.
Again: when poultry is vaccinated there is no problem.
In the Western world it's also not a matter of finance and logistics.
I don't fear a pandemic flu it won't emerge from H5N1.
I do fear the mass hysteria when the animal disease comes and destroys industrial flocks without any proper immune system and people start to panic.
Guess you're pretty infected by the hysteria. But if you don't have anything else to do it's an interesting way to fill your time with.
In the sixties and early seventies everybody built bomb shelters because of the Cold War. Did it came?
So there is always something up to worry about and that distracts you from the things that do matter. And if there's a problem, just solve it. Bird flu can be solved. The lack of will is attached to profit so money. It just takes some time before governments understand that. Ministries of agriculture are tight bound to the bio-industry who don't wants to vaccinate because of trade. Ministries (agriculture, economic affairs, foreign affairs) don't cooperate very good amongst eachother, they are separate kingdoms (here). Bird flu affects them all, just a matter of priorities. It takes some time before they are aware of that.
There is enough vaccin in the Western world to vaccinate all the poultry. I've had contact with Intervet because I had the same doubts (don't yell to vaccinate if there isn't any, was my thought) and they have plenty. Just a matter of demand to pump up production, the facilities are there. Also new production methods are on it's way for future yearly vaccination until H5N1 is gone (cheaper & faster), like lots of other threatning diseases the last decades.
Just like pandemic flu hysteria, vaccin production is business so there will be enough to jump into it when it's a market.
Concerning the alterations a virus undergoes: see above, you only need the H to keep it under control and prevent spreading.
Better is to change the way bio-industry works, there is the problem. In big sheds a LPAI can change rapidly into a HPAI. That happend with H7N7 here in 2003.
They need animals with a good immune system. In Australia they created a broiler type which is immune to any H. That's business too. Fun is: hobby poultry is immune to almost anything where an industrial animal drops dead from accept the bad bugs like NCD, ILT, IB etc. Cutting down the amount/concentration of animals is another instrument. Changing the movements in between poultry industry another. Plants/factories were animals don't have to be transported is a way, incl. the production of their feed.
Here we say: the shore will alter the direction of the ship. It's now the time for that concerning the bio-industry it threatens public health. They have to reorganize. Just takes some time.
Concerning the things as organized here in Holland... I visited lots of other countries for imigration (too crowdy here) but everywhere is 'something'. It seems most of the population consists of civil service workers who make up rules that are idiot and expensive to maintain. Everything and everybody should be under control, its paranoya.
Therefore I love the US, you've far less regulations on low level and tax is much lower. On the other hand the regulations they dó make are just as crazy or even more crazy as here (NAIS). Guess 'controlling' is part of this time.
Sigrid van Dort
Holland
Sigrid-No I'm not infected with hysteria, only the realities of the situation. If H5N1 wasnt on the face of the planet I would only be preparing for an earthquake here in Memphis.
http://folkworm.ceri.memphis.edu/recenteqs/
The chances are very large in the future of something really, really bad. Another good instance is what is going to likely be a Japanese Katrina, Man-yi is expected to hit Japan this weekend with a like type force and have a 41 foot wave top coupled up with a 20 foot storm surge. The Banda Aceh tsunami was only 22 feet in Indonesia.
No I continue to disagree that there wont be a pandemic flu. I think that if it goes pan 4 that there will be little or no time to prepare anywhere in the world. Some as you say will likely be genetically pre-disposed to acquiring it, some not. I also think that nations of the world will close ranks to hide it as long as possible.
Sigrid-to get this one wrong if its HPAI on arrival with high CFR's isnt hysteria, its science. We know what it can do, we know what it might do, but we wont be able to respond until its already too late. Many contend now that the medical systems would be overwhelmed with no chance of recovery. I can assure you that the medical system going down would be the least of our worries if it happens.
I understand your desire to assert your point. Go for it. I will be the first to say you could be right. But if you are wrong and have advised people that they shouldnt prepare then their deaths would likely be on your conscience. I have asked Revere repeatedly to prepare and its based in science. He has a new grandchild and if it comes it would likely take his children and not the new baby. Thats based upon the science of the numbers and age groupings. He wouldnt prepare he said because he is too old and we both know that life if it came in at even 20% in the US would be at an end to what we called the civilized world. The grandbaby might need him and missus R.
I dont prepare for just myself either. I fully acknowledged a long time ago that even though I might be totally prepared at home, I cant be at the work site. Likely, very likely a mistake a slip or something would infect me. I am in the 50/50 age bracket for survival under those latest scientific numbers. That isnt good. Its a lot better than most though and if I am gone my kids who absolutely will come home from college and school and stay until its over will use the supplies that I mustered up. I prepare for them. If I go down fighting this then I will go as anyone who at least tries to make the world better would. I can be a mean SOB when it dictates and have in the past. Horrendously so, but different time and different place. I think the world post of a pandemic would be a really good place to live. Kind of like a bad storm passing. Prepare or not is fine. Just present your information and it will be dissected to its base elements and hopefully, you will be right. I hope you are right.
Dear Mr. Kruger, to me it seems its a hobby from you 'to be prepared' for any disaster.
That has nothing to do with the topic start and it's final question.
Sigrid van Dort