The Chinese like chicken. The biggest restaurant chain in China is Kentucky Fried Chicken (2300 in 500 cities). The source of supply is always close. China raises more poultry than any nation on earth. But that poultry also has outbreaks of bird flu, and there have been eight human cases in the last month. Any relationship? The eight cases are not clustered and appear sporadic. But the Ministry of Health has said the human cases appeared in areas where there was no reported bird flu, which puzzled them, since it is conventional wisdom that human cases result from close interaction with infected birds. We've questioned the conventional wisdom many times, here, especially for China where past cases also show much less reported relation to infected poultry outbreaks. One possibility is that China's poultry vaccination campaign is masking virus shedding birds. In other words, the poultry is still infected but doesn't appear sick. This is not a new worry. It has been raised over and over regarding the arguments over poultry vaccination as an effective means of controlling bird flu. Another possibility is that there is another reservoir for the virus, perhaps pigs or some other animal. Another is that there are unreported sick poultry. And another is that there is a lot we don't know about what is going on.
China does not have the most sterling reputation for being open to the outside world about problems. It is claimed they learned their lesson after the SARS cover-up in 2003 severely damaged their credibility. China is a complicated place. Our image is of a tightly controlled society answerable to central authority. But the reality is that for many policies there is more like anarchy. This includes bird flu and health policy. The Ministry of Health and the Ministry of Agriculture have been warring with each other for years. The Agriculture Ministry promotes Chinese made food products. In this case there is not only KFC and the poultry producers to protect, but their own competence and policy of vaccination. It's a dilemma. If there are no sick poultry near, it implicates vaccination. If there are, it signals a failure in vaccination. The Ministry of Agriculture's response was to deny there is bird flu in poultry:
“There is no epidemic outbreak of the H5N1 strain of avian influenza in the seven provinces where the human bird flu cases were identified,” the Ministry of Agriculture said in a statement carried in the China Daily newspaper this week. (Kathleen E. McLaughlin, Global Post)
This is consistent with what the Ministry of Health said -- at first. Now, however, the Health Ministry is saying all the eight cases had "direct contacts with live poultry or worked at poultry markets." They also add that there is no evidence of a mutation in the virus indicating a change to become more transmissible. That's nice to hear, but since we don't know what such a mutation would look like I'm not very reassured.
At the same time birds dead from H5N1 are washing up on the shore in Hong Kong, over 20 so far. Hong Kong authorities reasonably suspect the birds come from the nearby Chinese mainland province of Guangdong. Is there an outbreak going on there? Chinese authorities say "no."
Influenza is a seasonal disease and we are at the height of the season. When it comes to H5N1, however, we shouldn't take anything for granted. Unfortunately we can't trust the Chinese. Or Colonel Sanders
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"The House of the Venerable and Inscrutable Colonel was what they called it when they were speaking Chinese. Venerable because of his goatee, white as the dogwood blossom, a badge of unimpeachable credibility in Confucian eyes. Inscrutable because he has gone to his grave without divulging the Secret of the Eleven Herbs and Spices." - Neil Stephenson, Diamond Age
Flu, what flu? What dead chickens?
Doesn't it basically boil down to over use of antibiotics and steroids revere?
Initially these treatments might have been a good idea but in the end a monster has been created.
And while we're bashing China, rightfully so from what I know to be true, there was a news story awhile back about chicken feed ordered from China. The US. midwest farm ordered Shrimp chicken feed and when they tested it there was no shrimp to be found, what they found was Chicken chicken feed.
Lea: No, neither AFAIK. The question is whether infection is being masked, which means vaccine use. Antivirals (not antibiotics) might promote resistance and steroids are used for growth control but don't mask infection.