The very outermost bands of Ike, which is a very large hurricane, are stroking the Texas coast this morning.
These outer rain band are actually affecting Loiuisana as well.
The center of Ike's projected path is Galveston/Houston Texas, and landfall of the eye of the storm is currently projected at 1:00 AM local time Saturday morning. Ike is currently a Category Two storm and will strength during the day today (Friday) to a Category Three storm, and so will come ashore as a major hurricane. This exact track can change but the forecasters are saying that the models are all agreeing, so this track has reasonably high confidence.
Ike is very large and of special note has hurricane force winds up to 120 miles out from the center. You can expect a swath of hurricane force winds roughly 150 to 160 miles wide with a center to the right (northeast) of landfall, with tropical force winds over a much larger area. The following graphic shows this. If you live in the orange/reddish/purple area you have a better than fifty percent chance of experiencing tropical storm force (39 mph) surface winds for a sustained period over the next few days. Note that the winds are very much stronger to the right of the projected point of land strike. (Click the image for a large size version)
Because of this great size, tropical storm force and hurricane force winds will cover a large area. The storm surge is expected to be put to 20 feet above normal tide. This will also extend over a much larger distance from the center of the storm. Where bays concentrate the storm surge, flooding can be much higher, and on top of this surge may be extra large waves.
Possibly more significantly, fove or ten inches of rain will fall o nSouthwestern Louisiana and Texas, with the occasional area of much more rain. Have you been to this part of the world? It is very flat. One or two inches of sudden rain gives you brand new lakes that had not occurred to you before.
Starting late PM or early evening tonight, tornadoes caused by the hurricane will start to appear on land.
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