Nature on Climate Gate

Earth to Greg:
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/SolarCycle/

http://joannenova.com.au/2009/12/fraudulent-hockey-sticks-and-hidden-da…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UU2PoRBIN0 from 2007

Dave McK. This is my blog. It is not your technorati link farm. Make some comments on these links before I check next time and I'll leave them up Otherwise they are deleted. (Unless other readers want to play with them, of course)

Greg out.

Joanne Nova? Wander over to Deltoid to see her gently fisked, eviscerated, and held up to widely deserved ridicule. The 'hockey stick' results have been replicated using multiple data sources, multiple statistical methods, and are very robust, which has never been acknowledged by those who have 'just raised the issue'. Skeptics advance science, deniers ignore it. Nova's a denier.

Greg,
I'm enjoying your blog...I particularly like the "About" section. Made me laugh.
You say..."That case is supported by multiple, robust lines of evidence". Please help me understand something. The evidence for global warming as a consequence of human activity seems to me to be quite compelling. I'm certainly not a student of the climatology literature but I have heard/read that there is a scientific consensus of experts around the world that testify to the existence of a warming problem that is the direct result of the growing carbon footprint around the globe.
I can understand why some people might jump on the denialist bandwagon because they are devotees of Rush Limbaugh and he says there isn't a problem. These people parrot what they hear on Fox News and the Limbaugh show. They get all worked up and they go off and argue that global warming believers are mindless, tree-hugging, Al Gore loving imbeciles. I'm not bothered by this because I understand it and where they're coming from. The world is made up of quite an assortment of people and that's that. In a perfect world everyone would formulate their opinion based on good scholarship. But that's an non-reality. What is,is.
Here's the thing. I am not a Limbaugh fan by any means, but the other day I happened across his radion station and heard him ranting repeatedly that the whole global warming thing is a scam. Once again, I don't agree with Limbaugh and I don't like his methods, however, I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he is not an idiot. He is a well-read, knowledgable guy. I'd like to know why Limbaugh and people like him are so convinced that there is no global warming problem. Do you know? What have they read, who did they hear, who do they espouse to, that makes them so convinced? I really want to understand the other side without throwing stones. Throwing stones gets us nowhere. What are they seeing that global warming believers don't ....and vice versa. Can you help me understand this?
Thanks for your input and keep up the good writing.
Chet

Chet, someone can be well-educated and well-read and still engage in magical thinking. Whether those descriptions fit Limbaugh is open for debate but irrelevant to the problem of AGW.

At its base, AGW denialism is nothing more than magical thinking. That's what makes denialism denialism. "I don't want it to be true. If I don't look at it, if I don't admit that it has any power or validity, it won't be true."

Chet, my background and training, research and reading has kept me in very close to climate change issues from the time I did archaeology with 17th century historic sites, Native American archaeology in the North East, and studied human evolution. I have followed and read about climate change issues both long term and more recent centuries since 1973. I count among both my colleagues and friends many people who work on this topic. I have taught classes on this topic.

I am not going to make an argument from authority. But in answer to your question that Rush Limbaugh is a smart guy so why is global warming real when he says it is not, I'll rest comfortably on decades of reading and research and let the ex-football player provide the scientific evidence backing his views.

I recommend the following readings in order. The middle one is just coming out, the other two should be available cheap used:

This book will give you background on climate change research prior to the rise of the denialists. It is an important starting point.

This book will bring you up to date on the current research on climate change.

This book will contextualize Rush Limbaugh and his careful study of climate change.

I sum it up like this, those like Rush are protecting their corporate overlord's profits. Prolonging action against CC means another week/month/year for big oil profits.

In 1890âs, Arrhenius built upon Fourierâs assessment of atmospheric properties plotting CO2 and temperature data collected in industrialized England. Arrheniusâ plots and calculations related CO2 and ambient temperatures. Callendar (1930âs) extended the analysis using long term observations from 200 stations reiterating the relation between CO2 and climate warming. Keeling (1950âs) began collecting atmospheric CO2 samples at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii which is the most complete record.

USGS reports all volcanic activity produces nearly 200-million tons CO2 annually; although much less than human activity production. Mauna Loa, near the Observatory and the worldâs most active volcano, had major eruptions in 1950, 1975, and 1984. Atmospheric CO2 levels measured at volcanoes indicate the degree of activity and estimated heat flow from one volcano are reported at140-mW/m2. Correlating CO2 and temperatures data collected near active volcanoes should be significant but not show a cause and effect relation; however, correlating world-wide data significantly shows CO2 lagging temperature by approximately two years. Arrhenius and Callendar analysis similarly could be significantly biased owing to urban heat-island effects and extensive coal burning at the time, as CO2 is an abundant byproduct of burning.

Apparently, no laboratory control experiment to date, such as in a biodome, has shown CO2 levels influencing ambient temperatures. Tyndall (1861) measured the absorptive characteristics of CO2 followed by more precise measurements by Burch (1970). Absorbance is a measure of the quantity of light (energy) absorbed by a sample (CO2 molecule) and the amount of absorbed energy can be represented as specific heat of a substance. Specific heat of CO2 ranges from 0.791-kJ/kgK at 0-degrees F to 0.871-kJ/kgK at 125-degrees F and average atmospheric concentrations are 0.0306-percent. As revealed, the specific heat of CO2 increases as ambient temperatures increase showing CO2 likely is an ambient temperature buffer.

The atmosphere contains from 4-percent water vapor in the troposphere to 40-percent near the surface. Specific heat of water vapor relatively remains constant at 1.996-kJ/kgK. Water absorbs energy (heat) and evaporates to water vapor. During condensation (precipitation), latent heat is released to the atmosphere thus increasing ambient temperatures. Water vapor holds the majority of atmospheric heat and regulates climate and temperature more than any compound. Historically, however, water vapor characteristics as related to climate were much less appreciated, but investigations concerning the significance water vapor plays in global climate-dynamics are just beginning.

Energy not stored in the atmosphere is released into space through radiation. Re-radiation is the emission of previously absorbed radiation by molecules. Specific heat of water vapor and CO2 molecules shows that water vapor reradiates significantly more energy back to the surface and this case further is justified by quantities of each compound. Thus, this synopsis and other publications suggest that minute variations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations likely results in an insignificant affect on climate; whereas water vapor likely is the significant factor. Nevertheless, this argument easily could be rectified with an appropriate biodome-type control experiment.

The denialists came to their views by various paths. Some because they didn't like the idea of having to cut CO2 output; some because they interpreted the data differently; some out of sheer perversity.

Once having comitted themselves to this view, like many humans they are reluctant to change their minds. Their opinion becomes more like a belief, which is resistant to all evidence. They know they're right and will rationalise any contrary evidence away, or just ignore it.

Trying to convince them of their mistake is largely futile. They're a self-selected group of those too stubborn, stupid or prejudiced to accept an inconvenient truth.

P.S. Eh,moron (#8) the idea of conducting climate experiments in a biodome is ludicrous. Not that you'll qccept that since you're probably one of that self-selecting group.

Ehmoran, for some reason I am not sure you are really interested in this, but in case you or any other reader gets sucked into the "water vapor factor is so big CO2 is irrelevant" argument, it has been discussed quite well here:

http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/01/calculating-the-g…

Ok, again, the word "denialist." If you honestly believe your model of the climate - literally the modeling of the entire planet, its oceans, the atmosphere, and even the Sun's interaction with the earth is so infallible that people cannot question it without being "denialists" you have rendered void your legitimacy and forfeited your claim of being a scientist.

You turn people off automatically with politically driven dribble like that.

What the e-mails prove is that climatologists are more like Keynesian economists than actual scientists. They have so much data, so many graphs, so much information that you can come up with any conclusion you want and still have the numbers back you up. Then all that's left is controlling the ideological debate. Luckily the government owned by big business, and the media is on your side or else these "scientists" would be out of work.

People are waking up to this. They know the environment needs to be protected, and action needs to be taken, but NOT by these people, NOT by those attending Coppenhagen.

This AGW debate is being run by fraudsters, politicians, and big business. Greenpeace didn't put up that "carbon clock" in Times Square, Deutch Bank did - one of the largest carbon trading companies in the world. Conflict of interest most definitely. Please tell me that I should trust bankers!

Tony, I don't trust bankers, frankly, and I don't trust corporations. But I am a scientist and I am familiar with the climate data and I am certain that global warming is real, that it is anthropogenic. I am also certain that global warming has already had serious negative consequences and will have additional negative consequences.

The issue of global warming has been politicized as you suggest, but it has been politicized by the denialists.

What I find amazing about you is that you are a denialist denialist. That's kind of new.

Chet, stay at the deltoid blog where you belong.
Your tired old bullsh*t about anyone who is a dinier
being a fan of Rush is just that Bullsh*t.

The simple fact is that the earth has been warmer before
unless one pulls the "trick" that Michael Mann who is now
under investigation pulled. CO2 has even been much higher
during very cold periods in the earth's history.

Alarmist like you have no explanation at all for how the earth was warmer before SUVs and Jet transportation or why it was colder during periods of much higher CO2 concentrations. Just admit your
on the government grant gravy train so we can move on with real conversation.

Stephanie you and the other Al Gore Kool-Aid drinking losers are the deniers. Global Cooling Deniers. If there hasn't been cooling, what is the "decline" in the "hide the decline" email all about.

JoAnne Nova is highly thought of everywhere but the deltoid gang which is populated by losers who are about to have their careers cut short and will years into the future be second guessing the poor decision they made in playing along with the hoax.

Tell me Stewart if the results are so sound for Mr. Mann, what is this "trick" to hide the decline that was found in one the emails.
Tell me also why scientists were deleting emails to
avoid complying with a FOIA request? Do you have anwsers for what these people said in their own words? DO YOU? If not, you should shut up and stay over at Deltoid where you and other hoaxsters belong. Where you can lick each others wounds and discuss what you'll do when your careers are over. Must be a bitch to watch it all slip away so fast.

Anyone wanting to have a laugh at the expense of people like Stephanie, Stewart and Chet who drink the Al Gore kool-aid are welcome to visit my site where we do that everyday.

http://www.hootervillegazette.com

Greg, are you kidding me? Are you aware of what the Belfer Group actually is and who constitutes its membership? It is made up of all sorts of corporate fascists and you worked for them! So forgive me for saying your comment, "Tony, I don't trust bankers, frankly, and I don't trust corporations." rings a little hollow.

The current director of your Belfer Center is a RAND corporation, CFR, Trilateral Commission, Brookings Institute member/consultant. Notable members/advisers of the Belfer Center include a Rothschild (global banking dynasty), Zoellick (banker) of World Bank and Goldman Sachs fame, a Federal Reserve chairman (banker), etc etc etc. The Belfer Center itself is named after the founder of an oil company and a member of the board of directors of ENRON!!!

@stephanie Z: Unfortunately the denial movement is far more than magical thinking. It is a well-funded propaganda machine which bears far more than a superficial resemblance to the tobacco propaganda machine which successfully resisted restrictions on tobacco for over 4 decades. You take a few Moranos, give them lots of money but try to cover tracks so it's not obvious who's giving him money, and he makes stuff up and gets less intelligent people to parrot his nonsense. To get even more faux credibility, involve other "think tanks" with their own puppets who say "the sky is not falling, the sky is not falling". Tell lies and keep repeating them, no matter how many times you're shown wrong. You can win over an audience by having a debate and remaining calm while saying stupid things that will enrage your opponent (but not so stupid that Joe Average will know its a lie), or you can lie while screaming and feigning indignation at your filthy lying commie opponent. They're well-worn tactics; they worked for Tobacco, they work for the creationists, and they're still working for some coal and oil companies.

@ehmoran: Nice double-speak, but anyone who's studied physics can tell you you're full of shit. You don't even understand the simple concept of "specific heat". Take your pseudo-babble elsewhere.

It's extremely easy to spot deniers because they repeat the same lies over and over again. I suspect that folks like Moran create a portfolio of lies, each set only slightly different from the other, and simply pull one out and copy it off whenever they please. So looking back at ehmoran at #8, you will find the same load of crap at:

http://patriotroom.com/member/ehmoran

Ooo ... "patriotroom" - yeah, "trust us, we're patriots!" Hahahahaha.

Tony, you are a moron. The Belfer Center is a component of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Harvard. John Harvard. Pilgrim farmer guy. University named after him, but I hear he had a lot of shady connections. I did not work for John Harvard.

Kennedy School ... Named after John F. Kennedy, President of the United States. Ordered Bay of Pigs Invasion. I was not there. Fucked Marylin Monroe. Which I did not.

Belfer Center. Part of KSG. I also had a Michael Crichton fellowship. Sure, I knew Crighton, but I never once wrote one of his books. I had an office in the Peabody Museum. Peabody .... the big coal family, right? I own vast interests in the coal business. Not.

... (take deep breath)

Do you really think Holdren worked for The Belfer Group? Or perhaps you think that anyone who works at the Belfer Center is automatically a puppet of the Rand Corporation? Do you realize most people who work at The Belfer Center or any of the dozens of other named things at that University out East even have a clue what or who they are named after? (Note: I worked at Belfer for days. Holden for years, and was director. But Holden worked there AFTER I did. Meaning, whatever he was up to, it was ME who laid the groundwerkd! Bwahahahahah!!! Us graduate students working part time as secretaries ROOL THE WORLD!!!!)

Jesus H. MF Christ, Cartalucci, you are a true nutjob. Totally over the top. Think of the meaning of what you are saying here. You were a US Marine, according to you, untill you retired or went A.W.O.L. (which was it, by the way?). Do you have any idea what this would implicate you in given your utterly over the top moronic logic?

You know, there's a gate at Harvard named after Teddy Roosevelt. I used to walk through it several times a week.

So, ladies and gentlemen, next time you are at Yellowstone, think of me. I created the National Park System!!!! Me and my friend Tony Cartalucci of Thailand. Oh, and if you are ever in Thailand looking for ... something ... just find Tony and let him know you are my friend. He'll fix you up right away.

Greg, you're absolutely pathetic; the entire Belfer Center is and has been loaded from top to bottom with corporate fascists, bankers, generals, and CIA terrorists and you are going to sit there and say its a moot point?

So go on and attack me, all people have to do is go to the Belfer website,

[ADDED BY GREG: Here is the Belfer Center web site address:

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/

]

look at the membership/board of directors/advisers and see the sort of scum working there. If you came clean on what sort of organization it is, a government front and clearing house for special interest policy looking for a rubber stamp from "science" we might not count it against you.

You're completely compromised Greg, saying you work for Belfer

[ADDED BY GREG: Tony is now saying that I now work for Belfer. When I was in graduate school, I spent many months working at the Kennedy School of Government. I worked for several different units of KSG. I worked for Belfer, photocopying stuff, for a couple of days. I also spent some time hanging out reading stuff because there was not too much to do. That would have been around 1990. So whatever really bad things happened in the world around then, that was me.]

is like me saying I work as regional manager for Exxon. No matter what I say, its called a "CONFLICT OF INTEREST."

Apparently that is a term you and your "scientists" are unaware of which is why you are in such deep trouble with the very real, and very NOT going away, Climategate. You are the living embodiment of unethical behavior. This is why people don't believe you, why people in general don't buy into climate change, and why you are in fact, a danger to humanity yourself, especially if AGW is real, your unethical behavior has undermined your ability to speak from any base of authority and mandate any action to be taken.

The Belfer Center is named after an oil tycoon. Yes, you should look up and know a little about the place you work - act like a responsible man. Ignoramuses like yourself are why we have Holocausts and Stalinist purges.

Finally, Thailand is a beautiful country with hard working, creative, and moral people. Your stereotypical inferences are both an extreme in ignorance and hate. You have taken your claim as a man of science, beaten and pissed on it all on your own.

[ADDED BY GREG: What is that about? Did someone hit some kind of nerve with someone? Hmmm... ]

I hope you and your cheerleaders here are happy with that in life, because your life work is going down the toilet with Climategate. You come across as a sleazy man with a chip on your shoulder against the world.

[ADDED BY GREG: At least my chip is on my shoulder an not in my head!]

You endear only suspicion and contempt. Enjoy your life as a leper in the scientific community.

Greg, I was in the Marines, and I know what I was a part of. If someone saws my head off for what I was involved in, I have accepted that. I have spent the rest of my life working to find the truth, no matter how hard it was to accept. I have spent the rest of my life as best as I can to make reparations for what I was a part of.

I make no excuses for what I did besides ignorance and arrogance. I have never defended the actions of the US military, I simply ask people to be empathetic to young men who are given poor educations, their minds filled with rotting propaganda (by the people in the think tanks the Belfer Center Directer is a member of by the way) and do their best to show them the truth.

If you have not noticed, I have exercised great patience dealing with your immature and insulting personal attacks, even inferring nasty things about an ENTIRE nation of 65 million people; you will see that I am empathetic to your situation as well.

This is your blog - be a tyrant if you will, censor all my comments,

[ADDED by Greg: Yes, Tony's comments are now moderated so I can clean them of the spam he had started to include in the URL box.]

don't get angry because I know more about what's going on than you do. A real scientist, a man of truth, would shelve his pride and LEARN something. I will even accept you censoring me out of the debate if you indeed have learned something but would like to save face. You sound like a hateful, creepy old man, kicking and screaming as you are carried out of a new world you're no longer relevant in. Be truthful, be honest, and you will always be relevant.

If you are still on someone's payroll,

[ADDED BY GREG: That is a reference to the fact that Tony thinks I am a handmaiden of the Trilateral Commission because while in graduate school I had a job photocopying stuff at the Kennedy School of Government's Belfer Center .... putting myself through school and all that.]

just know this, the truth is going to win in the end and people involved in this are going to be held accountable. You might not think you are as bad as a Nazi, but that 6 year old kid split in half by your paymaster's bomb says you are.

[ADDED BY GREG: Did I mention that I had a clerical type job photocopying stuff for a few days at a unit of the KSG named after someone named Belfer who, in turn, is apparently linked to something called the Belfer Group which planted a chip in Tony's head?]

Some of those Nazis were old men when they were finally caught and justice served. If you are involved in something here Mr. Laden, get out now before its too late.

[ADDED BY GREG: I think it is too late to get out. The photocopy work is done. I can't put the toner back in the bottle, as they say.]

The truth will set you free.

Wow Greg, I'm getting the special treatment. Yes, bashing an entire nation of 65 million people with a culture 2,000 years old, is ignorant, hateful and does strike a nerve with me, and anyone who is not a bigot.

Again, your first initial comment was that you worked for the Belfer Center. You didn't say 5 days photocopying which anyone would agree is not really working somewhere. Again, when I pick up a knocked over bag of cheese doodles at 7/11 I don't put it on my resume. Ethics, Greg, its called ethics. You are however defending John Holdren who was director, and clearly in league with bankers and corporate fascists.

I'm not putting spam in the URL, infowars.com is a legitimate source of alternative news. Again, Greg, you are now the judge jury and executioner of what is legitimate and what is not. Back peddling and annotating my comments.

[ADDED BY GREG: This will be Tony Cartalucci's last comment on this blog. If you want to continue this discussion with him, he's easy to find on the internet and he uses gmail. But no more here. For his own good, really]

You know, I'm on hiatus because I'm waiting for a work pass, what's your excuse for being online doing nothing all day? When I'm working, I'm working 12 hours a day. Hard to believe you get ANY science done at all.

Tony, your LaRouche is showing.

Denialism is exactly as Stephanie describes it. It is a process of thinking which deletes analysis and method and substitutes factoidism to support a pre-formed conclusion and no amount of explanation will supplant it.

AGW is completely independent of Al Gore. He popularized it in one specific way, but he didn't invent it, he is not ManBearPig. If he had never written his books, nor made his movie, it would not have changed the conclusions arrived at through the same processes that gave us the understanding of how stars work, how evolution works, and all of the science that has given you the technology to write your stupidity for all of the world to see.

America was named after an Italian by a German. Italy and Germany were the bad guys in some big war. As an American, you're clearly fascist bastard. Ignoramuses like yourself are why we have Holocausts. And that goes for all other Americans, including myself.

And yes Tony, that really is how delusional and paranoid you sound.

Seems to me that, among the most vocal climate change deniers (including Limbaugh), a phrase always seems to crop up: "to change our way of life". Those guys don't want to change it, and anyone who suggests they should think about it, they consider as an enemy. I understand that a few significant elements of this way of life are a massive consumption of oil; red meat in every meal; lots of fat and sugar, and huge servings; "freedom" understood as a little regulation as possible for businesses; and other similar things. Whenever any of those seems threatened, they yell "Do not want!" So they look for data (even if it's faked) that will confirm their bias.

Belief first, knowledge last. Just like creationists and others. Truly, all deniers are the same.

Greg, you're an absolute coward. You've had to lie, bend the truth, back peddle, personally attack me, obfuscate my message, and now resort to censoring. ... bla bla bla ... what's your excuse for arguing for two days with a mentally ill person? It took you 2 days to figure it out? bla bla bla

Wow Greg, get a life!!! You googled my email??? Who's paranoid now? LOL. You are a piece of work.

[ADDED BY GREG: No. You gave me your email. ]

I'm really an ex-Marine, I really saw horrible things that frankly, you are not prepared to hear, I really hate globalization, I really have read thousands and thousands of pages of Holdren, CFR, Club of Rome, IMF, WTO, World Bank documents in my pursuit of the truth.

[ADDED BY GREG: Most paranoid crazy people make that claim, one way or another.]

I have self-taught myself economics and finances (which made me a couple thousand in the stock market as an added bonus).

[ADDED BY GREG: There is evidence to suggest that you did not really do that.]

Go read the posts about my commentary on Thai politics. That was back in April. The same immature rhetoric was used against me then that you're using now, but this story has completely played out. I was right. The "red" democracy movement was a hired mob being run directly by billionaire Thaksin Shinawatra (Carlyle Group member and is now working with Khmer Rouge dictator for life Hun Sen. Sounds too crazy to be true, but sure as the grass is green that's how it turned out.

He even admitted recently in a press release that not only did he control and fund the movement, but that he is willing to disband them if his jail sentence is commuted and his frozen assets returned. (He is a fugitive.)

Same went for my predictions for Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, you sound a lot like the boys over at the "Long War Journal" who still think Bush is secretly the President.

[ADDED BY GREG: The what? I do? Wow. ]

Same went for the auto industry, I predicted their failure and gained handsomely (I have an estate in Thailand now!) five years before they crashed.

[ADDED BY GREG: Are you not going to invite me to visit?]

Same went for the economic crash (here's a freebie Greg, the worst has yet to come - your government is lying about the economy rebounding). So go on about your science, I'm getting by "ok" with my "denialism."

I take your low blows in good stride because the pay off is immense and people like you eventually wake up and rejoin the human race. You may wish I was in jail, buried, or billowing up a chimney, but I honestly want you to wake up and rejoin humanity.

[ADDED BY GREG: No, I don't wish any of those things on you. But really, if you want me and "my people" to not disdain you, it might be nice to not say things like how we are not humans. Jeesh.]

Instead of looking up Tony Cartalucci, you should look up Belfer Center, read Ecoscience, and go to [ADDED BY GREG: URL deleted... no, I'm really not your private technorati.]