Arlo Guthrie Falls Through the Ice

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So, it seems that Arlo Guthrie was hauling firewood or something with his tractor out on his place in western Mass, and he took the usual shortcut across the pond. The pond was too deep for the tractor to drive in unless, of course, it was frozen, as it always was in mid January. And, as Arlo drove his tractor across the pond, in mid January, the ice gave way bit by bit, in stages, and his tractor went in. Somewhat comically, or so he tells it.

Arlo blamed that event on anthropogenic global warming.

So, a couple of years after that happened, when I asked him to write an article for the "Global Warming Special Edition" of a monthly newspaper I was editing, that was the story he contributed.

In the same issue, I wrote a lengthy story about global warming, explaining why we thought global warming was happening, making the then-confused (in the public's mind) distinction between the "ozone hole" and global warming, and so on. That would have been back around 1991 or so, and I swear to you, there is almost nothing in that article, written for the general public, that I would need to change to day to keep it accurate.

Yes, ladies and gentleman, Arlo and me, and most climate scientists actually, knew about global warming back then, and even today, 20 years later, we are having a hard time convincing our friends in the right wing.

Because they're morons or because they are paid off by industry. Take your pick. Either way, they've got a lame excuse.

You'd think they were getting paid enough by the health care industry to finally let the environment alone for a while.

Earth Day is I Told You So Day for a lot of us.

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More like this

But isn't it dangerous to rely on an anecdote as a starting point? Melting ice in January is one thing; snow in April where I live is another. Neither is indicative of anything much, even in a layperson's discussion. The argument will be won and lost by the science and not by the anecdotes.

Rokkaku: My essay has a starting point that is quint. I assure you, the research does not. Which you knew. Admit it. You knew.

Jake: Yeah, the greehhouse model goes back a ways!

Svente Arrhennius determined the role of CO2 in the atmosphere as a greenhouse gas based on observations of the moon. He predicted an increase of 6 DegC if CO2 were doubled, fairly close to modern predictions. He published in 1906, I believe.