... as to how strong Tomas will get in the latter part of the forecast period."
Less than 48 hours ago, it was predicted that Tomas would by now be a Category One hurricane, and in a couple of more days, a Category Three hurricane, as it turned towards Haiti.
There has been wind shear.
Now, Tomas is a poorly organized tropical storm that is expected to weaken further, still turning towards Haiti.
It is still predicted that Tomas will reach hurricane strength by Thursday as it begins to bear down on Haiti. It is also predicted that Tomas will remain more or less intact as a cyclone after passing over the island into the North Atlantic where it will reform as, or remain, a Hurricane.
There are still no coastal warnings or watches.
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Tomas is like that relationship you always wanted to believe in but that never came through to you.
Tomas, once expected to spin up to a fairly strong hurricane, then weakened and not expected to do so, has done so. Tomas is now a serious hurricane with winds of up to 75 knots and sustained winds of 70 knots, and is expected to become stronger.
According to the current models, Tomas the Hurricane will stay around the Category One/Category Two boundary over the next four days as it moves to the west then north.
Tomas is nicely demonstrating the degree to which meteorological models depend on the context of experience.
So you're doubting Tomas?