Global Warming Is Happening: DENIAL101.x

I'm auditing the EdEx course "Denial101x: Making Sense of Climate Science Denial." This is Week 2: Global Warming ins Happening. The course is covering indicators of warming, what is happening in the Cryosphere, and related matters.

Here is an example lecture segment:

A central theme of this week is the relationship between climate and weather, and how this relationship becomes fodder for the development of myths in service of denial about climate change. The climate is a cherry orchard. Weather is the cherries. Don't pick the cherries!

There are many dimensions the climate system that allow cherry picking. You can look at local temperature records and see very little warming in some placs. You can look at different levels of the atmosphere, and you can ignore the oceans. Don't ignore the oceans, that is where most of the heat imbalance caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas pollution plays out.

At one point in this week's course, you get to play with a really cool data tool. Like this:

Screen Shot 2015-05-05 at 8.54.34 AM

Playing around with that tool is very fun and informative, and the process is backed up with some excellent information about how the data set(s) work(s).

Notes:

Cherry Picking, Setting False Expectations, How records are made and tracked (we are setting hot records more often than cold records over recent decades, in the US and elsewhere). Global warming is analogous to rigging the climate dice.

Sea level rise, thermal expansion of the global ocean, melting glacial ice. Glaciers are losing about 150 billion tonnes of ice a year, accelerating. Many mountain glaciers have disappeared or shrunk a great deal. Annual mass balance. Tracking glacier history. Myth: Some glaciers are growing therefore there is no global warming (cherry picking, there are a few growing glaciers due to warming causing more snow locally).

Greenland ice loss: Over 300 billion tonnes per year, or 6 meters of ocean if all melted. Moulins. Ice shelves as corks. Gaining ice in interior. Greenland is already at 2 degrees C surface air increase. Largest individual contributor to sea level rise. Myth: Since ice is building up in the interior (ignoring the rest of the region) global warming is not real. Note: Most of the accelerated melt is very recent, mass balance has been negative for about 15 years, and this is increasing. Get waders.

Antarctica, west and east (largest, oldest). Total contribution to global sea level if all melted = 72 meters. Recently discovered that WAIS is more sensitive to climate change than previously thought. Melt started in recent decades and is accelerating, in WAIS. EAIS relatively stable. (But this is questionable, may be changing.)

Antarctic sea ice: Seasonal, does not influence climate much. Myth: sea ice increase means global warming not real. Winds may blow sea ice outwards, so open water freezes, and the winds blow colder water. Fresh meltwaters easier to freeze. Snow fall increased.

Land and sea ice are totally different things. Myth of sea ice discounting global warming is cherry picking and error of omission.

Excellent in depth interview with several ice experts. It is worth looking at these longer interviews even if they are not on the quiz!

Building the temperature record (How do we measure global warming). Myths: Thermometers not reliable, insufficient in number. Jumping to conclusions ... scientists estimate error, the error is way smaller in magnitude than the temperature increase signal. Multiple methods of measurement agree with each other.

Urban heat island effect. Neat: Compare light pollution with heat island effect. They don't match up, suggesting HIE is very local and not strong. NASA matching of paired rural/urban stations: effect is small. Other studies support this. Fallacy: Jumping to conclusions. Going from a reasonable hypothesis to the conclusion, meanwhile actual scientists examined the hypothesis and found it wanting. Myth: "Corrections" are bogus (jumping to conclusions). Truth: Corrections are proper adjustments to data. Ie when you change instruments or move instruments an adjustment or calibration may be necessary. Comparing adjusted vs. non adjusted data shows that the adjustments, while justified, don't change the numbers much.

Wavy Jet Streams. How hey work. Myth: "It's cold out, so much for global warming!" Cherry Picking, that. GLOBAL warming.

How jet streams form and why they get wavy. Arctic amplification (positive feedback from ice/snow cover changes, etc.). So tropical/polar temp gradient (and thus pressure gradient) reduces, waves and slower jet streams result.

"Climate Change" vs. "Global Warming." Myth: Some bogus story about how scientists are playing a fast one. Personally, I prefer Obamacare over the Affordable Care Act. (FLICC type: Conspiracy Theory. Over Simplification.)

More like this

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Climate denialists are fond of arguments regarding the falsifying of hypotheses. There are two main thrusts they use here, (ironically enough mutually exclusive thrusts**). The first is that global warming is an "unfalsifiable" theory and therefore not a true scientific construct. I don't recall…
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Most of the current models of glacial ice melting (and contribution to sea level rise) focus on ice melting and less than they need to on the process of glaciers falling apart in larger chunks such as ice bergs. Also, current understanding of glacial ice melting due to global warming indicates that…

I'm looking forward to downloading the videos. The quiz and surveys for Week One were simple, though at least one question was confusing for some people (mentioned in the discussion section).

Regarding the total melting of Greenland ice, the previous time about half of it melted (~120,000 years ago) it contributed to about three meters of global average sea level rise. If that were to happen now, about one third of the human population would have to relocate.

But hey, Senator Snowball said it isn't happening. Whew! That's a relief.

By Desertphile (not verified) on 05 May 2015 #permalink

Oh, and "Personally, I prefer Obamacare over the Affordable Care Act" is hilarious!

By Desertphile (not verified) on 05 May 2015 #permalink

We are probably already in a state where the ice melt seen in the last interglacial is a minimum estimate.

(The Obmacare quip is actually a reference to something mentioned in the CC/GW video!)

"Antarctic sea ice:
...Fresh meltwaters easier to freeze."
The fresh waters form a low density cap, which prevents the warmer, but saltier waters below the surface from convecting and supplying heat to the surface. This looks like a kind of feedback mechanism, this warm subsurface water isn't cooled so much on its way to the underside of the iceshelves, enhancing the melting of the bottom of the iceshelves, leading to more surface fresh water. So not only does the physics accelerate the melting of the glacial ice, it provides an obvious cherry to pick.

By Omega Centauri (not verified) on 05 May 2015 #permalink

No one denies climate science or climate change, they both exist.
Earth has warmed up since the last ice age an the LIA, thankfully.
Many challenge the numbers touted by climate catastrophist crusaders.
There must be better things to do than studying climate science denial, or denial in any form.

By Earthling (not verified) on 05 May 2015 #permalink

"No one denies climate science or climate change, they both exist."

Yeah, damn right! Since people die all the time, it is silly to try and prevent epidemics of cholera, typhoid, influenza, and poliomyelitis.

By Desertphile (not verified) on 06 May 2015 #permalink

In reply to by Earthling (not verified)

Earthling, why bother with that nonsense? Either you assume everyone is as ignorant as you're pretending to be, or you've got nothing better to do than troll these comments. Studying denial would be a better use of your time.

Earthling transfers its AGW denial from the topix/global warming website. Better known as dirtling or "eart hling(alien has no affinity to Earth)", "sick silly steenkin'(its own word) toxic topix AGW denier liar whiner dirtling" has racist remarks, as well as a long line of AGW denial, to send out, also.

Another of the many, many reasons to be skeptical of the AGW doom is that warmists feel like they need to diagnose the mentality of anyone who disagrees with them.

And, once again, because the author seems to have forgotten: nobody really 'denies' that the earth is getting a little warmer. The questions of how much warming is caused by fossil fuels, how dangerous it is, or why, exactly we need to give the political class more power to fix it.

"... many reasons to be skeptical of the AGW doom is that warmists feel like they need to diagnose the mentality of anyone who disagrees with them.

I've no idea what you mean by "warmest," but if you mean skeptics who try to educate deniers, then you are wrong: denialism is not a mental illness--- it's abnormal behavior, which is not the same thing. Denying the fact that human-caused climate change is a serious threat to life on Earth is not a mental illness, and no skeptic said it is.

By Desertphile (not verified) on 07 May 2015 #permalink

In reply to by Arch (not verified)

Oh, and censoring opposing views doesn't make you look like your sure of yourselves either!!

Now excuse me, I need to go cash my check from the big oil corporations. ; )