Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season: Carlos tours the coast?

Blanca is the second named tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific. I'm pretty sure Blanca was originally a disturbance with a low probability of becoming a named storm, but I may have missed something. Blanca is intensifying rapidly and will reach hurricane status shortly if it has not already, and will likely develop to become a major hurricane. The storm is heading towards the Baja, but may weaken before it hits anything big.

Meanwhile, the first named storm of the season, Andres, is still a hurricane. Over the next few days, Andres will make a sharp turn almost in place and weaken.

Nothing of note is happening in the Atlantic, though the season officially started yesterday. Not much is expected this year as El Nino is usually associated with attenuated tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin.

Of course, "not much" can still include a major landfalling hurricane. Just not a whole bunch of them.


While Blanca is now a tropical storm in the Baja region, a new disturbance is forming as of June 8, which is highly likely to become a named storm by the end of the week. If that happens it will be called Carlos.

Here is embryonic Carlos:

Screen Shot 2015-06-08 at 12.50.57 PM

UPDATE (June 10 2015): Tropical Depression Three E is likely to become Hurricane Carlos in about two days. It is going to do something a little odd, moving north as it forms into a hurricane, then staying off the coast of Mexico for a couple of days. While the eye may not make landfall, the hurricane itself may scrape the coast for a good long ways. Or, it could move farther from the coast. Or it could move closer to the coast. Kind of up in the air right now.
A fair number of storms do this, but most go off farther into the Pacific. (See the image at the top of the post.)

UPDATE June 14th PM

Carlos is back to being a tropical storm hugging the coast of Mexico. Carlos is likely to reach hurricane strength over the next several hours and will stay right off the coast for a couple of days then move inland and down grade to a messy rainy storm.


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OMG! OMG! We're all gonna DIEEEEE!

Any chance of either storm making it's way up to California?

By papertiger (not verified) on 02 Jun 2015 #permalink

No for Andres.

Probably not for Blanca, but maybe some of the remnants will bring some rain to SoCal. Don't hold your breath, tho.

any threat to cancun?

It's rare but not unprecedented for East Pacific tropical cyclones to make it all the way north to coastal California, and the chances drop rapidly the further north you go (pretty much zero if you're north of Santa Barbara). It's more common for remnants of such systems to provide rain to Arizona (part of their normal summer monsoon rains) and adjacent areas, so if you are in southeastern California you may get some rain from Blanca. But don't count on it.

By Eric Lund (not verified) on 02 Jun 2015 #permalink

Cancun? Wrong ocean.

Eric IIRC one of the worst CA landfalls was a hurricane that started in the Gulf and jumped mexico. IMNRC.