Atlantic Hurricanes 2015: Will Bill? UPDATED

There is an 80% chance that a disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico will become a tropical cyclone, a named storm, over the next couple of days. If that happens it will be called Bill.

Possible Bill is not well defined and is poorly organized. The disturbance is currently near the Yucatan, and will move northwestward over the next couple of days where it may pick up enough energy and be left sufficiently alone to crank up. The most likely coastal area to be affected are along Texas and parts of Louisiana. Even if the disturbance does not turn into a named storm, that region will likely experience significant rain. Here is an animated GIF of the satellite imagery of the area:


UPDATE 15 June 1:20 Central:

From the NWS:

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated
the broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico this morning,
and found that the circulation was too poorly defined to qualify the
system as a tropical cyclone. However, thunderstorm activity
continues to become better organized this afternoon, and the low
will very likely become a tropical storm this afternoon or this
evening as it continues moving to the northwest.

My understanding is that this storm is highly unlikely to develop hurricane level organization and strength, but it does seem very likely to be a tropical storm. But no matter what it does, it is going to dump a lot of rain on Texas. And then, it will sweep in land and end up in Pennsylvania or someplace, dropping piles of rain along the way.

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