On vaccines and autism, child pornography, and seeing "bullies" everywhere

Bullying. You keep saying that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Yes, I do so love to co-opt that famous line from The Princess Bride for my own nefarious purposes, but it's so perfect for this particular topic, which comes up every so often when I'm writing about the pseudoscience behind the antivaccine movement. It usually takes the form of an emotional screed by some antivaccine parent or other complaining about how she's being "bullied" by us nasty, evil, insensitive pro-vaccine, well, bullies. (They frequently repeat the word many times throughout the course of their little rants.) A newspaper prints a pro-vaccine article critical of antivaccine pseudoscience? It's bullying. What about if a friend questions her antivaccine views? It's bullying. How about if her school or daycare requires her child to be up to date on her vaccines before attending. Obviously it's bullying. And heaven help any pediatrician who who tries to persuade her that her vaccine pseudoscience is pseudoscience and that she should vaccinated. Obviously he (and it's almost always a he in these stories) is nothing but a big fat medical bully.

You get the idea. We've seen these sorts of rants from people like Katie Tietje, Cathy Jameson, and countless other antivaccinationists that I haven't discussed. Just before Thanksgiving, I saw one by another of the merry band of angry antivaccine warriors over at that wretched hive of scum and quackery, Age of Autism. It's by someone whom I don't recall having heard of before, Dara Berger, and is entitled, unironically, Pro-Vaxxers Are America's Acceptable Bullies.

Because I had never heard of Dara Berger before, I did a quick Google search to see what her connection is with the antivaccine movement (other than, apparently, blogging for Age of Autism). I quickly learned that she is a Board Member and Co-Chair of the Programming Committee for the National Autism Association NY Metro Chapter and is on the Advisory Board of a documentary being made called Documenting Hope that will "document" recovery from autism and other chronic conditions. Looking at the medical advisory committee, which includes Dr. Martha Herbert, Dr. Jay Gordon, Dr. Mark Hyman, Dr. Frank Lipman, an acupuncturist, and a whole lot of other woo, I don't have high hopes that his movie will be particularly science-based...obviously. After all, here we have a woman involved with an organization that believes vaccines cause autism, plus several others who have aligned themselves with the antivaccine movement, one of whom (Dr. Hyman) even co-authored a recent antivaccine screed with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. himself! Then there's the National Autism Association, which until recently listed vaccinations as a cause of autism on its website.

Whatever her background, Berger is nothing if not melodramatic (not to mention grandiose). Note her conclusion after setting it up with a description of the problem of bullying in school:

Everyday we hear horrible stories about children being bullied in school. Some refer to it as an epidemic. The tactics are so much worse than when I grew up in the 70’s. You could not get an entire school to gang up on someone’s Facebook page or send a compromised picture or video of that person and have it go viral. You pretty much had only a few choices to hurt them. Whisper rumors about them to other people, which let’s face it takes time. One popular thing was to scribble something mean about them on the bathroom wall. Although you had to hope that people used the stall and actually noticed the writing.

Bullying is a horrible thing to live through especially when it involves a child. It can leave lasting physical and emotional scars. Children have even lost their lives to bullying as some get pushed over the edge and commit suicide. We here these stories everyday. Luckily there is more awareness and parents have some recourse. They can sue the school or do something more drastic like move or change schools to protect their child.

But what happens when an entire country is bullying individuals? I find that this is the case for Vaccine Bullying.

That's right. It's not just doctors. It's not just pro-vaccine friends and nasty skeptics like myself. It's the entire damned United States of America bullying her! One can't help but wonder: What is the US doing to bully the brave Ms. Berger? Has it started a whisper campaign about her? Has it ganged up on her Facebook page? Has it scribbled mean things about her on the bathroom wall? Inquiring minds want to know!

Unfortunately, Ms. Berger is all too happy to explain. To her The Vaccine Bully is comprised of our entire government because the government doesn't accept that "vaccines are hurting adults and children even though they secretly pay out billions of dollars in their not well disclosed Vaccine Court." This struck me as a strange assertion. The National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program has a prominent, easy-to-find website, complete with lots of information, instructions on how to file a claim, and, of course, data and statistics easily accessible to anyone with a computer or smartphone. The latest statistics were even updated in October. I know, I know, just because there's a website doesn't mean that people know about the Vaccine Court, but Ms. Berger is clearly trying to insinuate that the government is trying to hide the existence of the court while referring to the government "secretly" paying out billions of dollars. It's not much of a secret (at least not to me and most reasonable people) if figures as recent as last month are easily discoverable on the web on an official government website.

It's not just the government, though. Oh, no. It's those damned pediatricians. Ms. Berger tells a tale of woe about an encounter with a pediatrician:

I went to a new doctor on West 79th street. He was a highly recommended pediatrician. During the visit, I told him that I only wanted to do the Polio vaccine since I heard it was one of the more benign ones and that I was worried about giving vaccines to my 3 month old baby. He started to raise his voice and said that I need to give a more useful one like the DTaP. I said that I didn’t want to. He proceeded to speak much louder and told me “I will not stand by and watch you kill your baby”. He actually said these words to me! I left immediately as tears fired down my face. I marched right up to the receptionist and said “don’t even think of submitting this visit to my insurance, since this was not a proper doctors visit and I now have to go see another doctor”. Then I continued “tell him I will report the visit as fraud if he tries to get paid”. She looked at me shocked and kind of mumbled okay. I checked every explanation of benefits for the next 6 months. He never submitted it. I felt some vindication in my small way that I stood up to him and did not pay him for his lousy behavior.

My guess is that this is a rather—shall we say?—selective retelling of the tale. If the doctor truly behaved as described, that's unacceptable, but I rather suspect that Ms. Berger is leaving some things out. For one thing, a pediatrician trying to maintain a practice on the Upper West Side is not likely to start yelling at a patient's mother so easily. I know doctors who practice in New York City. It's very, very competitive, and referral patterns are pretty tight and inflexible. A pediatrician who yelled at a patient's mother like this would risk seeing his referrals and recommendations drying up. This would be doubly true for an affluent Manhattan neighborhood like the Upper West Side. Reading between the lines, having heard many similar stories from antivaccine activists like Ms. Berger, my guess is that Ms. Berger was a particularly annoying antivaccine parent and the pediatrician just got fed up. It's understandable. I don't know if I could keep my cool if I were a pediatrician facing my fourth or fifth parent like Ms. Berger in a day, which is why it's a good thing I didn't become a pediatrician.

Let's accept that if the pediatrician did indeed yell at her (although from the story it sounds more likely that he probably raised his voice in exasperation) it was a bad thing. However, it's not "bullying" to try to persuade a parent to vaccinate her child. Vaccination is standard of care medical practice, and parents who don't vaccinate their children put not only their children in danger, but the children of others. A pediatrician who does not try to persuade parents to vaccinate is, in my not-so-humble opinion, committing at best medical negligence and at worst malpractice. Definitely, he's failing to live up to the standards of his profession.

Ms. Berger also characterizes being required by school administrators to have her children vaccinated before they can attend school to be "bullying." Of course, school vaccine mandates are the law, and school administrators are simply following the law by requiring proof of vaccination before letting children into school. By Ms. Berger's standards, any government official or police officer who enforces the law is being a "bully." That cop who pulled you over for going 20 MPH over the speed limit and wrote you a fat ticket? Definitely a bully! Shouldn't you be allowed to drive as fast as you want? What about that parking officer who saw that your meter expired a half hour ago and wrote you a ticket? Super bully! Shouldn't we be able to park wherever we want and for however long we need to for free?

So fragile is Ms. Berger that to her any questioning of her antivaccine views or story is "bullying." She relates a tale of how at dinner a cousin had the temerity to question her claim that vaccines caused her child to have a stroke, pointing out, quite reasonably, that “you can’t be sure it was the vaccine.” This led the fragile Ms. Berger to scream back at her “YES! I am sure” and ignore her the rest of the meal, concluding:

I felt very angry how she could even think to question me not once, but three times. If my son had broken his leg, she would never have asked me how I could be sure. It is her own brainwashed views on vaccines that caused her to try to bully me at a dinner party. It was both inappropriate and inexcusable. I have decided to forgive her ignorance for my own peace and sanity. It’s just incredible how pervasive vaccine bullying can be.

I don't consider questioning a claim that vaccines caused strokes to be "bullying," given that there is no good scientific evidence that vaccines do, in fact, cause strokes. That was a face-to-face encounter, though. Ms. Berger is even more fragile than I've shown thus far, as she concludes with an example of horrific online bullying that is terrifying to behold:

I recently had someone send me a link to a book called “Neurotribes” which is about how autism has always been around and it’s just better diagnosis. I haven’t read the book but watched three minutes of the author speak. I immediately closed the link and wrote my “friend” that I find the link upsetting. I said my son was vaccine injured like many children with Autism. The authors’s book undermines what has happened to so many children like my son". This person ignored my comment. I was angry that he would not even acknowledge that the link upset me. I went at him again the next day. I explained further that "I live in a world everyday that pretends what happened to my son did not happen. I continued "when we were growing up there were not all these kids that could not walk and talk". He again ignored my message. I felt silently bullied. So I pressed on with my third and final message the following day. Here is what I wrote verbatim: "that link was more upsetting than child porn would be to me. Your insensitivity explains why you are still alone. Most people just apologize when they realize they have upset someone even if it's unintentional”. He finally said that he was sorry. I probably have not changed his views, but I believe he might think twice the next time he talks about vaccines and autism with a parent who has a vaccine injured child. And if he upsets them, maybe it won’t take 3 days to apologize.

Yes, you heard it. A friend sent Ms. Berger a link to a book he thought she might like. What was his reward for something he probably did out of kindness? Ms. Berger totally flipped out. So, as many people would do, he simply went quiet, no doubt hoping not to escalate the situation. Finally, after three angry e-mail responses from Ms. Berger, he appears to have apologized, most likely to get this ranting woman off his back. I might have done the same thing, although, to be honest, were it me I'd probably have issued a notpology along the lines of, "I'm sorry you're angry because of this." If Ms. Berger wonders why autism antivaccine activists are so commonly viewed as a bunch of ranting loons, perhaps she should look at her own behavior in response to an innocent, well-intentioned e-mail from a friend.

To say Ms. Barger's response was disproportionate to the perceived offense would be an understatement. Think about it. She actually said that receiving a link to a book by Steve Silberman about how autism has always been with us was more upsetting to her than child porn! Let me repeat that to emphasize the lack of proportionality: A book on autism—no, a mere web link to a book on autism—that doesn't support the idea that vaccines cause autism upset Ms. Barger more than viewing child pornography would! That's right. Ms. Barger is seriously equating the level of offense caused by questioning whether we really are in the midst of an "autism epidemic," a key cornerstone of the antivaccine faith (because if autism prevalence only appears to be skyrocketing because of better diagnosis, more intense screening, and diagnostic substitution then vaccines couldn't possibly be causing autism), with child pornography.

The mind boggles.

So what do we do about this fantastical problem of Vaccine Bullying (which, I note, Ms. Berger always capitalizes)? This, apparently:

So what do we do about the problem of Vaccine Bullying. I suggest always speaking up to a bully as long as it does not infringe upon you or your child’s safety. We could write more articles on the subject to educate people. There could be a task force created to counsel those being bullied. Most of all we can stand together and support one another for a cause that affects the entire community. You would think that the world would feel some empathy for parents who have a child with vaccine induced Autism, but instead we are persecuted for standing up and warning others.

May I suggest not badgering a friend who did nothing more than innocently recommend a book to her with three ranty e-mails demanding an apology? No? Oh, well...

Heather Barajas comparing her plight to that of Jews during Nazi Germany. This is also not what is going on when antivaccine activists are criticized for their antivaccine beliefs. Heather Barajas comparing her plight to that of Jews during Nazi Germany. This is also not what is going on when antivaccine activists are criticized for their antivaccine beliefs.

Antivaccinationists love to paint themselves as being "persecuted" and "bullied" for their beliefs. Frequently they take this persecution complex to ridiculous extremes, such as during the debate over the passage of the new California law SB 277, which will eliminate nonmedical vaccine exemptions beginning in 2016, when antivaccine activists routinely likened the law to fascism and themselves to Jews in Germany during the Nazi era, complete with offensive co-optation of the yellow Star of David badges that the Nazis forced Jews to wear. (Even Dr. Bob Sears couldn't resist using such imagery.) Co-opting Holocaust imagery is not a new thing, either. Meanwhile, at AoA, Ms. Berger's co-blogger, Kent Heckenlively, has been known to liken his struggle to that of Aragorn against the dark lord Sauron in J.R.R. Tolkien's The Lord of the Rings.

I suppose I should be grateful that Ms. Berger confined her rhetoric to just being bullied.

Aragorn and his outnumbered armies face the assembled hordes of the dark lord Sauron as the Black Gate to Mordor opens. This is also not what is happening when antivaccinationists face criticism for their views. Aragorn and his outnumbered armies face the assembled hordes of the dark lord Sauron as the Black Gate of Mordor opens. This is also not what is happening when antivaccinationists face criticism for their views.
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That describes my daughter's recently vacated bedroom, and my sewing area after she has been in it. I have been spending that last few months plowing through it, hence the projects.

If anyone here has a dog, and a Dremel, the latter is awesome for grinding down nails. We have a giant Newfie and a Golden Retriever, and I don't ever cut their nails, just grind. That's my PSA for the day.

Sorry, a giant Newfie and a totally gormless Golden Retriever.

I think the default setting for Goldens is gormless.

By shay simmons (not verified) on 07 Dec 2015 #permalink

Come to think of it...the default setting for Newfies is giant.

By shay simmons (not verified) on 07 Dec 2015 #permalink

It's all a matter of perspective. Our previous Newf (RIP) weighed only 130ish lbs. This one is closer to 150 lbs.

We call the gormless one Chrissy Snow. The resemblance is uncanny.

I dunno the couple of giant Newfies from a block over, who still managed to be escape artists, might have also been gormless, or maybe just completely lacking in the ability to judge size.

We kept telling them our pair of Chihuahua's who would chase them out of the yard with complete abandon and with startling efficiency were snack sized but they never seemed to understand the concept.

"Crazy guy, Wilhelm Reich. I hear he used to hang out with Bill Burroughs back in the day."

Pseudo-science can be a lot of fun when it's not scamming people out of their money or health, and functions as a kind of art project instead. I've never gotten into Reich, but from a distance he seems like the kind of crazy I appreciate.

One of my former students spent a lot of time at his family's second home on a lake in Maine. One day he mentioned they were just down their place road from a museum devoted to some crazy guy... Turns out it's Orgonon, the Reich museum, and the kid (well, he was in his mid-20's and had moved to L.A. at the time) had never been there and had no idea who Reich was. Sigh. What a wasted opportunity.

Obligatory song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pllRW9wETzw

More specifically EIRP is a function of antenna power and gain

I already know that, dipshіt. It's become quite clear, however, that you don't know what it means, which – in your case particularly – is nothing at all. You seem to think you can use it as some sort of multiplier, as evidenced by utterly brain-dead comments such as these:

A few billion watts of EIRP microwave radiation centered over that autism cluster with 224+ overlapping high gain antennas.

and

Same reason a relatively low power focused flashlight beam can blind you with light, that is high EIRP.

and

For example, LA County has approx 14.5 billion watts of EIRP radiation in the overhead atmosphere from pulsed radars and high gain microwave earthstations.

There is no such thing as "EIRP radiation."

If you're now done with the copying and pasting, could you please get back to questions you've been posed in comments 450 and 484? You've already been given hints on both, by me and by palindrom.

“The peak power of the NEXRAD is 1 Megawatt (1×106 Watts) and it employs a directional antenna with a mainbeam gain of 45 dBi; resulting in a transmitted signal power level of 32 Gigawatts. The NEXRAD has a maximum duty cycle of 0.21 percent and a minimum duty cycle of 0.05 percent. Additional information related to ground-based weather radars can be found in ITU-R Recommendation M.1849.14”

I can see where this could have misled you, but the fact of the matter remains that you cannot get more power out of a transmitting antenna than you put in to start with.

The Machine That Goes Ping!
The NEXRAD WSR-88D, when operating with the long pulse period, delivers an energy density at 100 metres of around 1.8 joules (0.43 calories) per square metre per ping (assuming 100% of the output power being is delivered with uniform density in a conical beam of 0.95 degrees).

you cannot get more power out of a transmitting antenna than you put in to start with

You mean an ideal passive antenna can never have a true power gain of more than 0 dB? Stupid laws of nature.

A few years back I was at a military power sources conference. Four of us were having lunch when one of the party launched a minor tirade about some evil Democratic politician who was rejecting the possibility of some over-unity device. The guy had an MSc in electrical something. The rest of us, including the guy who struggled with Ohm's law, mumbled awkwardly and poked at our cheese steaks.

I told you I was pretty much illiterate in Spanish.

OK, and Sinead. Don't forget about Sinead. I'm sure you guys can take it from here. For now.

You mean an ideal passive antenna can never have a true power gain of more than 0 dB?

I'm still waiting for an analysis of ohmic losses in that well-known "very good conductor," the bloodstream. I suspect that coagulating the albumin (to which half of the mighty Ca is bound) might change the properties of the transmission line.

But this is how electrocution works, right?

^ Oh, and the relevance of the "Pauli exclusion principal."

The NEXRAD WSR-88D, when operating with the long pulse period, delivers an energy density at 100 metres of around 1.8 joules (0.43 calories) per square metre per ping (assuming 100% of the output power being is delivered with uniform density in a conical beam of 0.95 degrees).

You're forgetting about the ubiquitous refocusing of the "diffracted focused beam" by ducting. Which itself somehow seems to be isotroptic in the "beautiful thing," because clusters.

I wanna know how to protect my precious bodily metallic calcium from oxidation.

I went through a 2 year period where Kate Bush was everything. Alles klar, herr doktor bimler?

I wish I knew how to post pictures of Dylan (Newf) and Chrissy Snow (not her real name) because they are the stupidest, kindest, most child-tolerant dogs ever. Did I mention, stupid? Thank God for $500 canister vacuums.

JP, I loved The Lion and the Cobra. Jackie, Drink Before the War, Just Like U Said It Would Be, the whole album is burned into my 16 year old brain.

Joules is Energy not Power so you are not comparing apples to apples.

Power (Watts) can knock you on your butt.

Give me NEXRAD peak pulsed power density @ 100 meters distance along with average power density @ 100 meters

Easy calc. If you have a problem I can do it.

Mohammad Ali's punches delivered lots of power but he used very little energy because he was so fast.

Doug & Narad,

Did you guys ever see the movie dumb and dumber?

Very funny, you should see it!

Give me NEXRAD peak pulsed power density @ 100 meters distance along with average power density @ 100 meters

How about you do that?

Defibrillator.

I wanna know how to protect my precious bodily metallic calcium from oxidation.

Lithium seems to help. For me, anyway.

Joules is Energy not Power so you are not comparing apples to apples.

Power (Watts) can knock you on your butt.

Power is the rate of using energy. You cannot get more energy out of a transmitting antenna than you put in to start with. As I've noted, you appear to be fixated on the dismayingly stupid notion that EIRP can be used backwards.

Give me NEXRAD peak pulsed power density @ 100 meters distance along with average power density @ 100 meters

Easy calc. If you have a problem I can do it.

I've already offered you a very simple problem in comment 450. I suggest that you "do it" rather than blabbering about online calculators that you don't understand in the first place.

Then again, I'd be fascinated to see you work your own "question" out by hand rather than by using online calculators that you don't understand.

He's back? Goodnight, you moonlight ladies. Especially you, Narad.

Svante A. is spinning in his grave.

@Delphine: Rock-a-bye, sweet baby James...

Svante A. is spinning in his grave.

Think about poor Lenz.

Y'all are going at cross purposes.

Yes, an antenna fed with, say, 40W cannot put more than 40W of RF into the 'ether'. Yes, an antenna can focus that power in one particular direction or in a particular pattern so that, in a particular vector from the antenna, you can measure a higher (or lower) field strength than you would expect from isotropic antenna.

ChemE seems to think that, say, 10 or 12 satellite uplinks, which can have quite high EIRP, can do a u-turn in mid air, the beams will all add up, come back down and give kids autism or boil the ocean. This is silly. Link margins aren't that high, and if such a thing happened, there would be regular uplink outages that somebody would have noticed.

Also, there is no way I'm aware of that any amount of RF can cause autism, or anything like it. Yes, high RF fields can cause biological problems, but those problems are well known.

And I'll play music, too
For a 30 year old video, it's not too bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbvzOJWIApI

Mohammad Ali’s punches delivered lots of power but he used very little energy because he was so fast.

That explains the puniness of his musculature. And why boxers never break a sweat.

By herr doktor bimler (not verified) on 07 Dec 2015 #permalink

ChemE seems to think that, say, 10 or 12 satellite uplinks, which can have quite high EIRP, can do a u-turn in mid air, the beams will all add up, come back down and give kids autism or boil the ocean.

You're missing the part where launch angle has nothing to do with ducting.

For a 30 year old video, it’s not too bad.

Do you have any idea what sort of demon current twirling a horn could give rise to in this sort of RF morass?

Mohammad Ali’s punches delivered lots of power but he used very little energy because he was so fast.

Err... Kinetic energy (that is, being fast) is half mass x squared speed.
That is, the faster you are, the much more energy you expand.
Now, if you want to say that Mohammad Ali was very efficient at delivering his punches...

tl;dr: so now there is something as a free launch?

By Helianthus (not verified) on 07 Dec 2015 #permalink

As it happens, Ali and I used to (separately) frequent the same Middle Eastern joint. Never met him. Anyway,

so now there is something as a free launch?

Depends on who you know. But it occurs to me that ChemE has yet to do anything like whomping up a genuinely qualitative map of the vibrations.*

* Not actually a Tannerin (which is also not to be confused with the calcium-rich Terramin; I take it the further directions to Calcium Station are clear).

Johnny
"ChemE seems to think that, say, 10 or 12 satellite uplinks, which can have quite high EIRP, can do a u-turn in mid air, the beams will all add up, come back down and give kids autism or boil the ocean. This is silly."

Actually there are 224 satellite earth station antennas in the area. The microwave earth station radiation bounces off commercial aircraft just like microwave radar does, much of it is the same frequency range. Average power to many Earth Stations are similar to average power of many pulsed radars. Gains are very similar.

Duh

The LA area autism cluster wraps around LA Airport, Santa Monica Airport and Burbank. Over 4000 flights each day in the area. Autism map overlays shockingly well with the high gain microwave earth stations, high power, high gain pulsed radars and high gain microwave relay paths.

https://sdsimonson.files.wordpress.com/2015/10/set.png

RF and Autism
http://www.marthaherbert.org/library/Herbert-Sage-2013-Autism-EMF-Plaus…

I appreciate all of the attention and precious time Johnny, Narad and Doug has given me so I would like to share a screen saver with them for the holidays

https://sdsimonson.files.wordpress.com/2015/11/santa-monica-autism-mw.p…

PS. That is an autism cluster centered below all of that microwave (MW) radiation.

My formula for autism

Autism Rate = k(MW path loss) + k(MW reflected off airplanes)

I am still working on k

My formula for autism

Autism Rate = k(MW path loss) + k(MW reflected off airplanes)

I am still working on k

Could you please just go away rather than embarrassing yourself further?

As it happens, Ali and I used to (separately) frequent the same Middle Eastern joint.

Oh yeah, I remember that.

Autism Rate = k(MW path loss) + k(MW reflected off airplanes)

Explain again why you think you have any understanding of math or statistics, let alone understanding of anything relating to autism.

ChemE:

Actually there are 224 satellite earth station antennas in the area. The microwave earth station radiation bounces off commercial aircraft just like microwave radar does, much of it is the same frequency range. Average power to many Earth Stations are similar to average power of many pulsed radars. Gains are very similar.

This does not change Johnny's point. You are thinking that this relatively small number of transmitters aiming tight beams out into space cause massive amounts of RF on the ground. This is patently absurd. You are arguing that nearly their entire output is not reaching space, is consistently being reflected back by aircraft, which against all expectations is apparently focusing it on individuals on the ground rather than further scattering it. And somehow it is focusing it on every individual, not just one, and maybe I missed something, but I don't see where you demonstrated how that can happen. Nor why this isn't noticed; you'd think there'd be constant satellite uplink outages, plus so much ground interfererence that the use of radio devices would be impossible. Bye-bye Bluetooth.

Yes, RF can be reflected. Yes, RF can be focused as it is reflected. Yes, field strength can be much higher in the resulting beam. But for your claim to work, it would somehow have to be focused on every person who goes on to develop autism. At the same time. You do not see why this is absurd?

It's a bit like saying that because a flashlight can be painful to look at, streetlights are the leading cause of blindness, by calculating the total light output of all of them and then calculating what would happen if you concentrated that all on one person, then going on to claim that somehow this is being concentrated on all the people who develop blindness. At once.

By Calli Arcale (not verified) on 08 Dec 2015 #permalink

ChemE: "Mohammad Ali’s punches delivered lots of power but he used very little energy because he was so fast."

Please return your college diploma to your engineering college for that egregious display of idiocy pertaining to freshman physics and sophomore mechanics/dynamics (I still have my 1974 edition. That shows you should be no where near any engineering group.

Could you please just go away ...

Actually, I'd rather like to see his calculation for the peak power density at 100 m from the weather radar. I haz prediction.

photographic film

Calli Arcale
"This does not change Johnny’s point. You are thinking that this relatively small number of transmitters aiming tight beams out into space cause massive amounts of RF on the ground. This is patently absurd. You are arguing that nearly their entire output is not reaching space, is consistently being reflected back by aircraft, which against all expectations is apparently focusing it on individuals on the ground rather than further scattering it. And somehow it is focusing it on every individual, not just one, and maybe I missed something, but I don’t see where you demonstrated how that can happen. Nor why this isn’t noticed; you’d think there’d be constant satellite uplink outages, plus so much ground interfererence that the use of radio devices would be impossible. Bye-bye Bluetooth. Yes, RF can be reflected. Yes, RF can be focused as it is reflected. Yes, field strength can be much higher in the resulting beam. But for your claim to work, it would somehow have to be focused on every person who goes on to develop autism. At the same time. You do not see why this is absurd? It’s a bit like saying that because a flashlight can be painful to look at, streetlights are the leading cause of blindness, by calculating the total light output of all of them and then calculating what would happen if you concentrated that all on one person, then going on to claim that somehow this is being concentrated on all the people who develop blindness. At once."

"Cause massive amounts of RF "

Not massive, and it is MW not RF just:

5 times the microwave radiation the typical area gets in refracted radiation due to 5x high gain microwave earth stations than other areas

5-10 times the typical area gets due to 5-10x the number of high gain microwave relay towers overhead

4000 x times the intermittent reflected radiation the normal area gets due to low flying aircraft taking off/landing from 3 busy airports along with 4 high gain airport radars.

Imagine all of those parabolic microwave transmitters were actually transmitting visible light (radiation) like a focused searchlight (only fixed azimuth, zenith, except for radars @ 15 RPM). The visible light reaching your eyes from the overhead beams would be similar to the extra microwave radiation scatter. You can see a searchlight beam even though it is not pointed at you right??

"You are arguing that nearly their entire output is not reaching space" No I am not, Johnny said that. Only the part of the beam that the aircraft passes through at whatever power density/distance it is at gets reflected. Johnny appears to be more concerned about signal strength reaching the satellite. I never said the satellite signal drops out. The "budget" of a microwave satellite transmitter is set high enough so that the signal rarely drops out. If I put a mirror in the sky only the visible radiation hitting the mirror reflects back at whatever power density and reflectivity coefficient..

"consistently being reflected" It will vary with atmospheric conditions and overhead aircraft and pollution. It will change all the time. If you leave a light on it radiates and refracts and reflects all of the time right?

"And somehow it is focusing it on every individual" Where did I say that? The research paper is based upon almost a decade of autism rates. I am saying that if you live in the area of that autism cluster your cumulative microwave exposure is higher over time due to all of the antennas and it will vary from day to day.

https://emfscientist.org/index.php/emf-scientist-appeal
"Numerous recent scientific publications have shown that EMF affects living organisms at levels well below most international and national guidelines. Effects include increased cancer risk, cellular stress, increase in harmful free radicals, genetic damages, structural and functional changes of the reproductive system, learning and memory deficits, neurological disorders, and negative impacts on general well-being in humans. Damage goes well beyond the human race, as there is growing evidence of harmful effects to both plant and animal life."

BTW, Beverly Hills High School, located in the middle of that microwave cluster also has a high cancer rate

http://abcnews.go.com/GMA/story?id=125066

Chris

ChemE: “Mohammad Ali’s punches delivered lots of power but he used very little energy because he was so fast.”

Another analogy a structural engineer might understand:

Water is Energy
Flowrate of Water is Power

I can turn a fire hose on for 1/2 second and knock you on your ass and use very little energy(water) but hit you with lots of power (high flowrate)

Same amount of energy (water) over a 10 second period (low flowrate/power) will only bathe you. :)

Airplanes can reflect microwaves, sure enough. It's how RADAR works. It's also true that the energy is scattered in many directions, including back towards the children living on earth.

But the question then becomes how much energy is reflected? As I note above, I've never worked with RADAR, but I have worked with terrestrial MW and SATCOM receivers, and I understand the front ends aren't much different. Those signals are relatively weak, and well below the strength needed to have a biological effect. But, hey, ChemE is going to post plots showing dozens of spikes 30dB above background, because he's going to boldly go where none have gone before - out in the rain.

As far as the paper ChemE referenced in #542, I've only scanned it, but I note that most of the references are to RF in the cellular portion of the spectrum - 800 to 900MHz or so. There is only 1 reference in the paper to "GHz". That reference can be found, in part, here -
http://www.jstor.org/stable/3578501?origin=crossref&seq=1#page_scan_tab…

I can't copy from the page, but they were testing the effects of 80mW/sq. cm at 2.45GHZ for 30 minuets. Guess what, it has an effect. I'm far from convinced the effect is autism, as the portion of the paper I saw didn't mention autism, but , yeah, that much RF will do bad things to your bodily functions.

Please tell me you have more than that silly paper.

for 30 minuets

That's a lotta dancin
I'll just go now.

ChemE:
The thing we're all trying to get you to understand is that you do not see what it is you are actually saying.

"“And somehow it is focusing it on every individual” Where did I say that? The research paper is based upon almost a decade of autism rates. I am saying that if you live in the area of that autism cluster your cumulative microwave exposure is higher over time due to all of the antennas and it will vary from day to day."

You are claiming that there is sufficient RF from all of these sources to cause health problems. You are invoking refraction, reflection, and ducting in order to somehow get sufficient* RF to people to cause autism, which means that yes, you are claiming that it is focused on them. You just don't realize that's what the words you are using mean. How can it be ducted and refracted and reflected in such a way as to put this much power on one person (which in itself is pretty unlikely, given we're talking about a random event) and *also* put that much power on everybody else in the areas that you've circled on your maps?

Now do you see why it is absurd? Probably not.

You obviously paid enough attention to my flashlight analogy to make a searchlight analogy of your own. Yes, I agree we can see searchlights. Not very well, since very little of the light they produce is scattered towards us. But they do not blind us, do they? The light scattered from them is trivial. A miniscule fraction of what they put out. Likewise, the RF scattered by an aircraft passing over a Doppler radar station is miniscule. Even the beam of an AESA radar array associated with a surface-to-air missile battery is not that strong, and it's actively painting the target.

Seriously, man. You are embarrassing yourself here.

*Ignoring, of course, that there is no known mechanism by which any dose of RF can cause autism. That's just another thing you've not bothered to explore.

By Calli Arcale (not verified) on 08 Dec 2015 #permalink

Cali:

"Even the beam of an AESA radar array associated with a surface-to-air missile battery is not that strong, and it’s actively painting the target. Seriously, man. You are embarrassing yourself here."

What? Not that Strong?

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htecm/20121104.aspx
AESA is able to focus a concentrated beam of radio energy that could damage electronic components of a distant target. The air force won’t, for obvious reasons, discuss the exact “kill range” of the various models of AESA radars on American warplanes (the F-35 and F-22 have them)

You should be embarrassed. Especially since there is a cancer cluster in small children around the AESA/antenna pattern test facility in Newport, NY

https://www.change.org/p/charles-schumer-monitor-the-newport-antenna-ra…

Although autism spectrum conditions (ASCs) are defined behaviorally, they also involve multileveled disturbances of underlying biology that find striking parallels in the physiological impacts of electromagnetic frequency and radiofrequency exposures (EMF/RFR). Part I of this paper will review the critical contributions pathophysiology may make to the etiology, pathogenesis and ongoing generation of core features of ASCs. We will review pathophysiological damage to core cellular processes that are associated both with ASCs and with biological effects of EMF/RFR exposures that contribute to chronically disrupted homeostasis. Many studies of people with ASCs have identified oxidative stress and evidence of free radical damage, cellular stress proteins, and deficiencies of antioxidants such as glutathione. Elevated intracellular calcium in ASCs may be due to genetics or may be downstream of inflammation or environmental exposures. Cell membrane lipids may be peroxidized, mitochondria may be dysfunctional, and various kinds of immune system disturbances are common. Brain oxidative stress and inflammation as well as measures consistent with blood-brain barrier and brain perfusion compromise have been documented. Part II of this paper will review how behaviors in ASCs may emerge from alterations of electrophysiological oscillatory synchronization, how EMF/RFR could contribute to these by de-tuning the organism, and policy implications of these vulnerabilities. Changes in brain and autonomic nervous system electrophysiological function and sensory processing predominate, seizures are common, and sleep disruption is close to universal. All of these phenomena also occur with EMF/RFR exposure that can add to system overload ('allostatic load') in ASCs by increasing risk, and worsening challenging biological problems and symptoms; conversely, reducing exposure might ameliorate symptoms of ASCs by reducing obstruction of physiological repair. Various vital but vulnerable mechanisms such as calcium channels may be disrupted by environmental agents, various genes associated with autism or the interaction of both. With dramatic increases in reported ASCs that are coincident in time with the deployment of wireless technologies, we need aggressive investigation of potential ASC - EMF/RFR links. The evidence is sufficient to warrant new public exposure standards benchmarked to low-intensity (non-thermal) exposure levels now known to be biologically disruptive, and strong, interim precautionary practices are advocated.

http://forum.allaboutcircuits.com/threads/antennas-shock-danger.34604/
"Aboard my ship there were several low frequency 'flagpole' antenna the danger line around those was 7 feet in radius. On the other hand, locking our illuminating radar onto groups of seagulls several miles away would cause them to panic and scatter."

A friend of mine was in the military and they locked their radar on some seagulls close to the ship and they caught fire.

So live in your protective bubble Cali.

ChemE: "Water is Energy"

Bzzzt... failure to understand a crucial part of the potential energy you are implying. Please return your college diploma to the engineering program that gave your degree.

Chris the Rigid Structural Engineer

E(water)= M(water) * c^2

Buzzkill

Still wrong, I said potential energy. Also, the water is the mass of the equation, and is not actually "energy." To repeat your exact words "Water is Energy."

Dear Spouse of ChemE: please start investigating memory care facilities for your spouse, as this person is forgetting crucial concepts taught to engineers during their first two years of college.

Chris,

Water is energy at its most fundamental level and when energy flows it produces power. Nice analogy I thought, your ridgedness.

Water is Energy

We're getting dangerously close to homeopathy here.

UV-curing adhesive

Well, he does have more than one silly paper to "prove" that RF can cause autism - he has three silly papers.

The first of the links #558 is to a 606 page "Radiofrequency Radiation Research Summary Updated March 29, 2014", and the second is to not dissimilar "Radiofrequency Radiation Free Radical Studies Updated March 2014".

Can you guess the total number of times the word 'autism' appears in both cites? Did you guess 'zero'? I knew you could.

Listen, idiot - nobody denies that high field strength RF fields can cause biological problems, and especially not me. But there is no reason to think that the amount of RF in our environment can cause autism. Yes, you found a correlation in one place between the number of transmitters and the prevalence of autism. Now show us some pretty pictures of the spectrum on the ground from 3 or 4 locations in that area that show large spikes from multiple transmitters. I have a dollar that says you don't have any.

And keeping the music going -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PxhFGuHCteg

it is MW not RF

Microwaves are RF, genius.

5 times the microwave radiation the typical area gets in refracted radiation due to 5x high gain microwave earth stations than other areas

You appear to once again be conflating your weather-radar ducting routine with satellite uplinks, all the while ignoring the critical angle.

E(water)= M(water) * c^2

Buzzkill

More like brain death.

ChemE: " Nice analogy I thought, your ridgedness."

I am sorry but the rules of Newtonian are not yours to bend, especially since the math works quite well at this scale.

"Water is energy at its most fundamental level and when energy flows it produces power."

Explain why a siphon only works in one direction. What would you need to do to get one to start and continue, and why would it slow down? What is a very important design component that makes hydroelectric dams work?

Oops, left out a word:

"rules of Newtonian physics"

ChemE: "E(water)= M(water) * c^2"

Not pertinent to the scale of water power, which is still in the range where Newtonian equations work.

A friend of mine was in the military and they locked their radar on some seagulls close to the ship and they caught fire.

Your friend was pulling your leg.

By shay simmons (not verified) on 08 Dec 2015 #permalink

A friend of mine was in the military and they locked their radar on some seagulls close to the ship and they caught fire.

This happened in the Bermuda Triangle?

"Theory" is a kinder label than the item linked at #572 deserves. It's speculation about possible connections, published _Medical Hypotheses_ a decade ago. Long-time readers here are aware of _Medical Hypotheses_ and its willingness to print blue-sky speculations, but even if you'd never heard of the journal until you found that link, you're ignoring that a hypothesis isn't evidence of anything.

Medical Hypotheses has a paywall?! I'd be in favor of that, if it had to pay to get out.

Another theory paper on autism and RF. I previously posted another

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/m/pubmed/14962625/

Medical Hypotheses? ........

Excuse me a minute while I finish laughing.

This is clearly the last nail in the coffin for any presumption that you might have even the vaguest clue about anything to do with science.

Medical Hypotheses was well known as the place where all the most batshït insane ideas went to die. It got so bad that the publisher pulled the plug and sacked the editor in 2010 and then re-instituted the journal with peer review.

By Chris Preston (not verified) on 08 Dec 2015 #permalink

ChemE - Ya know, I didn't think there was anything to your MW-autism link after looking at your cite #542, why do you think posting the same F*CKL!NG PAPER at #573 would change my mind? ITS NOT ANOTHER PAPER, ITS THE SAME STUPID ONE!!!!11!!!!

Medical Hypotheses? ……..

Excuse me a minute while I finish laughing.

Robert Kane is also the author of Cellular Telephone Russian Roulette* which appears to be available in all its glory from a fan.

* Based on the cover, I was inclined to take the last two words to be a subtitle and and a colon. And then I spent even longer writing a footnote about it. Must. Stop.

Based on the cover, I was inclined to take the last two words to be a subtitle and and a colon. And then I spent even longer writing a footnote about it. Must. Stop.

Aw, come on. You do have a professional translator on call.

Or translatrix. Whatever. Either/Or I guess.

Narad, yer link's broken. ("From a fan.")

I think Johnny had a bad spell.

Many scientific discoveries start out as a hypothesis.

Rock on with your microwave radiation dudes. Ignorance is bliss. They are good for you.

Catch you down the road.

A friend of mine was in the military and they locked their radar on some seagulls close to the ship and they caught fire.

This happened in the Bermuda Triangle?

The performance is more fully fleshed out here (the comments run from bottom to top).

Narad, yer link’s broken. (“From a fan.”)

fixed, I hope.

Narad: "To wit, see the Taylor series expansion of the actual relativistic formula for kinetic energy."

Which is still not part of the scale that improves upon Newtonian physics equations. Those extra bits contribute too little. ChemE still does not understand how potential energy pertains to water's force (and energy) in a hose.

You realize that he is unable to answer a freshman physics question. In some school districts this is taught in high school. I can usually sift out the science poseurs when they get confused between potential and kinetic energy. This guy doesn't even know the definition!

I am not joking about memory care. It is like a good chunk of his basics of science memory has been thrown into the Memory Dump (I recently watched Inside Out). In this movie it is the place in the brain where memory (and knowledge) are tossed after not being retrieved, and are no longer available for recall.

The creators of this movie did consult real scientists, and there really is snipping of memories, just follow Dr. Steven Novella on his blogs and podcast. There are conditions that accelerate the snipping, and then it gets to be a real problem. Sometimes it is dramatic like my grandmother not recognizing my mother as her daughter after her stroke, or it can be quite subtle like ChemE forgetting the math/science/engineering basics from his/her first two years of college.

Last night a friend who lives over an hour away stayed overnight to be able to get to a morning appointment in our city. Her mother's last years were spent in a memory care facility. Though her ninety year old father is still almost unimpaired. Though a wee bit slower than when he was my structural dynamics professor in the aero/astro engineering department where I got my college degree.

Trust me, Narad: the forces that act on any moving vehicle from the city bus to the planes going in and out of O'Hare can be calculated accurately using the math of Newtonian physics. You really do not need to go relativistic (the teeny change in clocks in an airplane do not change their function nor their timeliness... being two hours late has nothing to do with relativity - that is usually because of weather or mechanical issues).

Many scientific discoveries start out as a hypothesis.

Hey, who am I?

Waterspouts and tornadoes and hurricanes have cold dark matter along their eyewalls in my model, which are really domain walls. They are all vacuum disturbances, not just a temperature disturbance. They decay and give of “dark energy” That is why you get “hook echoes” when you point a radar at a tornado as the atmosphere bends the radiation. Basically tornadoes are small wormholes that evaporate and decay.

Simple concept.

Allow me to quote Sabine Hossenfelder:

In physics, all theories have to be expressed in [the] form of a consistent mathematical description.

Yes, yes, the birds were cooked by the "100 million watts of pulsed EM radiation blah blah blah ..."
Cripes, I think they were killed by time-tunneling burning stupidity.

Chris,

Siphons work with water primarily due to gravity, unless the water is in the form of steam in which case a vacuum works better.

Trust me, Narad: the forces that act on any moving vehicle from the city bus to the planes going in and out of O’Hare can be calculated accurately using the math of Newtonian physics.

I know that, which is why only the leading term in the Taylor expansion is relevant. It's not clear to me why you're focused on potential energy; the mechanical power P = dK/dt.

ChemE's "analogy" seems to boil down to Microwammed Ali running around delivering "punches" (viz., pulses) to specific individuals. Given that "the 'average' power of 1.5 kW is meaningless," its logical extension would seem to have to be that everyone is just getting a nice massage.

^ "everyone else"

Chris, can you call yourself an engineer in the US without actually holding a degree from a recognized university? I'm suspicious his education is, at best, a 2 year tech diploma of some sort.
Right from the outset I had a sense of him being a taker-and-putter of words, without comprehending their meaning. He may just be slow on the uptake, but he clearly couldn't connect my remark about current causing increased oxidation except when it doesn't and his own mention of cathodic protection (which I know a good deal about, from the perspective of having designed several high-performance controllers for CP systems - he gave the impression he'd only heard about CP done with sacrificial anodes, which I've encountered in others with limited knowledge)
I don't think he's forgotten stuff, I think he never knew it in the first place.

ChemE's first comment at the Garden Island is more hilarious than I realized at first, though:

Avg RF Power Density @ 1300' feet from radar during ducting event: 46 watts/sq meter

Yes, "ducting event" is a magic incantation that turns everything into EIRP without that messy business about actual variations in refractive index.

I’m suspicious his education is, at best, a 2 year tech diploma of some sort.

No, his L—In profile is easy enough to find, but it's not really relevant. My baccalaureate* is two years' fresher than his, but it seems to be serving better even at this late date.

* Physics.

^ Please pretend that apostrophe never happened.

The air force won’t, for obvious reasons, discuss the exact “kill range” of the various models of AESA radars on American warplanes (the F-35 and F-22 have them)

In the course of an erratic education I once learned that the arena of naval conflict (at least in 1923) was between the ZZ rays discovered by British boffins and the inimical Ultra-K beams that the Boche had learned to generate.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-kAp25Q6UIQA/UHZ2MJzeJSI/AAAAAAAAJu8/HDtK-ECAn…

"Ultra-K" rays may sound like a breakfast cereal but were in fact a form of directable radiation that could destroy ships at distances of hundreds of leagues -- even Ships of the Line, even Dreadnaughts! -- by heating their constituent metals to incandescent temperatures and causing explosives to detonate. They were the EMP weapons and directed X-Ray beams of the day. Able to wipe the Royal Navy off the waves, seemingly the Huns had attained supremacy of the sea.

In the end the day was saved by using the skills of old to build a fleet of wooden ships stripped of all metal parts and sending them against the Ultra-K stations, carrying a fighting force of plucky British lads clad in leather armour and wielding longbows as in the days of Agincourt.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-1zvkr75y-6s/UHZy9P1qgkI/AAAAAAAAJuo/3Rns8hvP7…

By herr doktor bimler (not verified) on 08 Dec 2015 #permalink

Johnny:

"Now show us some pretty pictures of the spectrum on the ground from 3 or 4 locations in that area that show large spikes from multiple transmitters. I have a dollar that says you don’t have any."

https://sdsimonson.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/sm-autism-radar-power.png

Includes avg. power density from microwave earth stations and pulsed microwave radars (relay towers and added aircraft reflection not included)

I like the way you think.

Can you wire the money?

Although autism spectrum conditions (ASCs) are defined behaviorally, they also involve multileveled disturbances of underlying biology that find striking parallels in the physiological impacts of electromagnetic frequency and radiofrequency exposures (EMF/RFR). Part I of this paper will review the critical contributions pathophysiology may make to the etiology, pathogenesis and ongoing generation of core features of ASCs....

Please put the biology down and step away; this is as painful to read for me as your babbling about EMRs is to others. There is no such thing as an "ASC". What are you going to "review" when you haven't even put forth a coherent hypothesis and evidence for it?

By Science Mom (not verified) on 09 Dec 2015 #permalink

ChemE's still going at it? Wow.

Quick question, ChemE. At what frequency does damage stop occurring, per your notions?

Todd,

I think it is a broad range of frequencies but it is more related overall exposure/absorbtion over time.

A little radiation is good for you in the short term

Nobody leaves Earth alive sort of thing.

Johnny, BTW I accept PayPal, let me know when you are ready

@ChemE

So what is that range? Give me a low end and a high end, along with your reasoning for your cutoffs.

Todd,

I have researched primarily the 1.3 GHz to ~ 18 GHz carrier frequency range from an environmental wildlife/human disease cluster standpoint and I see strong evidence of a problem near high power/high gain transmitters. That includes microwave earth stations, pulsed microwave radars and microwave relay towers. I have over 500 maps on my blog in case you really want to know. I have not studied cell towers/AM/FM, which are mostly lower frequencies. Those links I gave yesterday have lots of related studies in the lower frequencies.

@ChemE #599

If you think reposting that same old picture of transmitter locations is now "the spectrum on the ground" , you are done dumb $3!t.

With apologies to Robert Hunter

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXMlhr1BmBI

Rat in a drain ditch
Stupid little boy
We know better but
A new chew toy
Like I told you
What I said
Sucks your brains
right outta your head

Now he's dumb
Now he's dumb
Lord he's dumb
He's dumb
Like a box of hammers
sittin' in the rain
He's dumb
Dumb
His cites don't prove a thing
He's dumb

Nine mile skid
on a ten mile ride
Dumb as a brick
but nothin' inside
Cat on a tin roof
Dogs in a pile
Nothing left to do but
smile, smile, smile

Now he's dumb
Now he's dumb
Lord he's dumb
He's dumb
Like a box of hammers
sittin' in the rain
He's dumb
He's dumb
His cites don't prove a thing
He's dumb

Reposting cites that don't prove $#!t
“Maybe this time, they won't read a bit”
Post the same links that don't show anything
Do it again and more of the same
Same old rat in a drain ditch
Stupid little boy
We know better but a new chew toy

Now he's dumb
Lord he's dumb
Like a box of hammers
sittin' in the rain
He's dumb
He's dumb
his cites don't prove a thing
He's dumb...

Johnny,

No dummy, that is a non-isometric power density profile of power reaching the ground. For low angle dishes the power reaching the ground is actually higher a few miles away from the transmitter than it is around the dish itself. That is why you dummies never measure any radiation. You take the measurement when the weather is nice and near the dish.

It is a trigonometry thang....

You took that right?

See cone of silence:
https://www.meted.ucar.edu/sign_in.php?go_back_to=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.met…

Epic FAIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ChemE

Okay, so you don't have an answer as far as at what frequency damage doesn't occur.

Next question. I'm sure you've looked at historical data (i.e., decades old) identifying installation of new transmitters, correlating with jumps in autism cases?

Johnny's Theme Song:

How do I microwave thee? Let me count the ways.
I microwave thee to the depth and breadth and height
My microwaves can penetrate, when remaining out of sight
For the ends of being and ideal grace.
I microwave thee to the level of every day’s
Most quiet need, by sun and by antenna.
I microwave thee freely, as men strive for right.
I microwave thee purely, as they turn from praise.
I microwave thee with the energy put to use
In my old griefs, and with my child’s health.
I microwave thee with a radiation I seem to lose track of
With my lost saints. I microwave thee with the breath,
Smiles, tears, of all my life; and, if God choose,
I shall but microwave thee better after death.

Adapted from:
How Do I Love Thee? (Sonnet 43)
Elizabeth Barrett Browning, 1806 – 1861

ChemE:

There you go, missing the point again in favor of grasping at a straw that doesn't overtly contradict you.

"AESA is able to focus a concentrated beam of radio energy that could damage electronic components of a distant target. The air force won’t, for obvious reasons, discuss the exact “kill range” of the various models of AESA radars on American warplanes (the F-35 and F-22 have them)"

That's if you are close to it, and it's pointed directly at you. ("Painting the target".) I'm saying the results of an AESA beam reflecting off the target isn't strong enough to support your claims, and you're making the claims about beams that aren't that strongly focused and aren't aimed at the aircraft. So if your claim doesn't work for AESA, it definitely doesn't work for anything less powerful or less focused. Plus . . . are you gonna claim that everybody lives at an AESA testing facility?

Your whole reasoning gives me reason to bring up one of Akin's Laws of Spacecraft Design:

19. The odds are greatly against you being immensely smarter than everyone else in the field. If your analysis says your terminal velocity is twice the speed of light, you may have invented warp drive, but the chances are a lot better that you've screwed up.

http://spacecraft.ssl.umd.edu/akins_laws.html

You have computed absurd results, but rather than go back over your assumptions and your math, you've deemed yourself the unsung hero of the ages, the one person who has found the true cause of autism (and now apparently cancer, as you managed to drag that into your last post to me as well -- because to you, cancer rates around AESA radar test sites support your assertion that cell phone towers cause autism).

But you haven't. You've made errors in your assumptions, produced an absurd result, and then run with it insanely far. You are making a fool of yourself; the only reason people keep reading at this point is the entertainment value.

By Calli Arcale (not verified) on 09 Dec 2015 #permalink

Golly, if we have radars that are capable of destroying targets remotely, why are we still wasting money on HE?

By shay simmons (not verified) on 09 Dec 2015 #permalink

"Golly, if we have radars that are capable of destroying targets remotely, why are we still wasting money on HE?"

They figured out if the gain and power density was high enough they could kill things, including biological contaminants...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electronic_warfare

Cali, a mile or two away for an AESA radar kill is far enough for me...Is that far enough for you? I never said cell phones cause autism, you just said that. Where did I say that. You sound foolish. Most cell towers are higher average power but low gain. I don't think any EMF is really good for you but hey, I have an IPhone and a WiFi Router...

So Party On!

ChemE, once again missing the point and taking things waaaaaaaaaay past where they are meaningful.

An AESA radar does not kill at two miles (nor does the Wikipedia article on electronic warfare make any claim that it does; it discusses jamming, signals intelligence, and damage to sensitive electronics, not antipersonnel devices; the most likely way to harm a person through electronic warfare is by jamming their radar so they don't see that you're coming into range, or by damaging avionics resulting in a plane crash). And what it could theoretically be used to damage is sensitive electronic circuits, not people. It is disingenuous in the extreme to conflate "killing" a computer circuit with lethality.

Look. Have you ever taken ESD (electrostatic discharge) training? Do you know how little voltage it takes to damage a circuit? It's far less than you can feel. Yet people take shocks orders of magnitude higher all the time with no harm whatsoever. Computers are *vastly* more sensitive to EM than human beings are. If an AESA radar could cause accidental emissions harmful to humans (remember, that is what you claimed -- not that its focused beams' maximum strength might be harmful, but that accidental emissions are causing cancer around AESA testing sites), then it would wipe out the flight computer controlling it.

And I know. My company makes some of those computers. I've *touched* those computers. They are way more sensitive than a person is, whcih is why I have to get mandatory ESD training every year. An electric shock too weak for me to feel could irrevocably damage it. (When the box is open. When it's closed up and ready to be shipped to our customer to be put into an airplane, it has full Faraday protection.) In theory, an electronic warfare weapon could induce enough currents in the aircraft to get into the box and damage the circuits, but it would have to be a hell of a big surge. There are no weapons like that in service today, apart from nukes.

You said, "They figured out if the gain and power density was high enough they could kill things". That's true, but you have to remember the word "if" is in there. You need more than "it's theoretically possible if there is enough power" before actually demonstrating in a link between RF sources and autism.

"I never said cell phones cause autism, you just said that."

I apologize; it seems I got you confused with a discussion I was having elsewhere. You were arguing that *satellite transmission stations* were causing autism. That doesn't really change my point, though. How does an absolute worst-case scenario based on *presumed* AESA capabilities against a designated target say anything at all to support your claim about RF signals from satellite communications stations occasionally bouncing off of airplanes causing autism?

Seriously. I mean, it's almost like you're claiming a homeopathic effect.

By Calli Arcale (not verified) on 09 Dec 2015 #permalink

They figured out if the gain and power density was high enough ...

More "potential voltage." To repeat again reiteratively: no passive antenna has a true power gain greater than unity. "Gain" simply does not belong in the quoted bit.

Calli, just for your amusement:
Years ago there was an electrical engineering post-doc in my department at the Uni who told a tale of someone he knew who put a sparkgap at the back end of an appropriate piece of waveguide, mounted it on his car and connected the sparkgap to the car's ignition. It emitted sufficient power to actually damage the front end of the police traffic radar of the day. The guy repaired police radar, so he ample opportunity to experiment.

In all the years I've coaxed, cajoled and bullied electrons to do my bidding, I've only once knowingly blown anything with ESD. I zapped a big spark into the metal case and took out the character generator ROM - the single most expensive and least available part in the whole thing. I have returned a large quantity of power MOSFETs and a few big electrolytic caps to the molecules whence they came, but not with ESD. The capacitors did not go quietly.

You didn't answer the question, Chem...why are we still spending money on HE (high explosives) or 50mm cannon ammunition if we can destroy stuff with radar?

By shay simmons (not verified) on 09 Dec 2015 #permalink

I think this is where we went wrong...

http://austradesecure.com/radschool/Vol33/images/radar2.jpg

Shay,

Because radar pathloss is too high and we irraditate everything around it... It is a shitty weapon and it is hard to direct all of the power where you want it due to the atmosphere wanting to scatter it.. Lots of collateral damage....

You take the measurement when the weather is nice and near the dish.

It is a trigonometry thang….

You took that right?

Funny that you can't answer the question in comment 450, then.

Epic FAIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I'll say.

doug:

I said power density, not power. By increasing solar power density through gain (a parabolic dish) you are able to cook dinner!

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cooker

Where did you guys go to school?

Anybody hear from Johnny? He owes me money

^ Eh, blockquote fail.

I think this is when the problem started

I see strong evidence of a problem near high power/high gain transmitters

That's because you're too lazy, ignorant, or both to try to invalidate your notion: you start with the conclusion and then go looking for transmitters.

ChemE, here's a nice easy problem for you to solve for us:

A Radar transmitter
1 megawatt delivered to the feed point of the antenna
1 degree beam angle; you may assume that the beam has uniform edge-to-edge power density and that no power is transmitted outside of the beam; assume a conical beam that begins at zero diameter at the "exit" from the antenna
You pick a value you think might be appropriate for antenna gain - something you think would be representative

Calculate the power density at 100 metres for the antenna "exit" point. Remember, show us your work. Some rounding is fine.

^ should be: 100 metres from the antenna "exit"

Johnny’s Theme Song:

How do I microwave thee? Let me count the ways.
I microwave thee to the depth and breadth and height
My microwaves can penetrate, when remaining out of sight
For the ends of being and ideal grace.
I microwave thee to the level of every day’s
Most quiet need, by sun and by antenna.
I microwave thee freely, as men strive for right.
I microwave thee purely, as they turn from praise.
I microwave thee with the energy put to use
In my old griefs, and with my child’s health.
I microwave thee with a radiation I seem to lose track of
With my lost saints. I microwave thee with the breath,
Smiles, tears, of all my life; and, if God choose,
I shall but microwave thee better after death.

Adapted from:
How Do I Love Thee? (Sonnet 43)
Elizabeth Barrett Browning, 1806 – 1861

*defenestrates*

"1 degree beam angle...You pick a value you think might be appropriate for antenna gain"

Sorry, that's not possible. One value determines the other, assuming lobes other than the main one are sufficiently low amplitude.

Shush! rs - I intended this to be a test for ChemE. It relates to the first part of my comment at 614 and is something he has been repeatedly hammered with. He just doesn't seem to "get it", and I wanted to see how he dealt with it.

No collateral damage from HE?

By shay simmons (not verified) on 09 Dec 2015 #permalink

Oops! And here I was trying to be helpful. To you, not him.

ChemE:

Because radar pathloss is too high and we irraditate everything around it… It is a shitty weapon and it is hard to direct all of the power where you want it due to the atmosphere wanting to scatter it.. Lots of collateral damage….

Oh, come on. So, because it's not possible to effectively target an energy weapon to damage a target, they . . . manage to irradiate everything around them to an unacceptable degree? So, it both has insufficient and excessive power at the same time? You really are painting yourself into a corner here.

I said power density, not power. By increasing solar power density through gain (a parabolic dish) you are able to cook dinner!

*facepalm* And, once again, using focused electromagnetic radiation (in this case infrared light) to support your claims about diffuse radiation.

Well, you're determined, I'll give you that. I'm just not clear what you're trying to accomplish.

By Calli Arcale (not verified) on 09 Dec 2015 #permalink

Shush! rs – I intended this to be a test for ChemE.

Were it not for his "thang" remark, I would've said that this was unnecessary:

1 degree beam angle ... assume a conical beam

As such, carry on. It's not as though he's likely to figure out what's going on in any event.

ChemE,
Even if your understanding of physics was reality-based (which it clearly is not - that water/energy analogy is one of the worst I have every encountered), you still haven't addressed the major problems with your hypothesis i.e. confounding factors. Given your flippant responses to mention of confounders previously I can only assume you do not understand the concept.

I suggest you read this and the following page in 'Handbook of Autism and Pervasive Developmental Disorders', paying particular attention to the description of preselection bias, the Texas Sharpshooter Effect and the methods for investigating clusters. Once you have gone through those further steps feel free to come back here and tell us how you got on. Otherwise it is pointless trying to convince anyone of your hypothesis, since you haven't gone through even the very basic steps to test it.

By Krebiozen (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

While we wait for ChemE to come back with his completed assignment can we discuss my hypothesis?

Autism occurs when lapsed Catholics with latex allergies who received between zero and ten vaccines with Thimerosol are near a cell tower when a meteor show occurs during an aurora event while they are drinking fluoridated water and eating GMO food.

I've racked my brain for confounding factors and can't come up with any. However, I did find several articles directly supporting my hypothesis. See: PubMed.

Oops: forgot the footnote! Insert an asterisk after GMO food. and

*Not all of these factors are required.

@ Calli Arcale

So, because it’s not possible to effectively target an energy weapon to damage a target, they . . . manage to irradiate everything around them to an unacceptable degree?

I have to admit, then you put it like this, one starts to wonder why the military would balk at using this hypothetical radar-based weapon while still using dangerous toys with a high degree of scatter like flame-throwers and high-explosive ordinances.
It's not as if there are no applications for area-suppressing weapons. Also, radars seldom explode. The same cannot be said about napalm tanks or ammo depots.

By Helianthus (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

Opus,
You spelled "flouridated" wrong ;-)

By Krebiozen (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

Opus, you neglected the confounded factor of the phase of the moon.

"While we wait for ChemE to come back with his completed assignment can we discuss my hypothesis?"

I decided dumb and dumber should complete each other's assignments since they appear to be excited about that sort of thing.
I suggest they included near field and far field effects side lobes, antenna losses, path losses, etc. so that they come up with a very good estimate of radiation variability at 100m. If they really want to jazz it up they should take it down to photons and virtual photons. Meanwhile unable to see the forest through the trees.

From Krebiozenstein

Even if your understanding of physics was reality-based (which it clearly is not – that water/energy analogy is one of the worst I have every encountered)"

Wow, all that from a girl who does not know the difference between a mW and a mA as displayed above

"I suggest you read this and the following page in ‘Handbook of Autism and Pervasive Developmental Disorders’, paying particular attention to the description of preselection bias,"

I had no bias until I ran statistics/null hypothesis indicating the dumbass electrical engineers were killing fish with their high gain antennas. All on my blog with years of data and statistics

"the Texas Sharpshooter Effect"

My spin on the Texas Sharpshooter Effect. If electrical engineers beam enough high power density radiation into the atmosphere that ricochets off everything they are bound to hit something. Mine is more an effect of not being able to shoot straight.

I also call it the "Ghostbusters Effect" See crossing the streams
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wrEEd1ajz4

"and the methods for investigating clusters. "

The clusters of autism (and dead marine life) were determined by others - see unusual mortality events. I am just showing that clusters of autism/dead fish equals clusters of high gain microwave radiation transmitters

" Otherwise it is pointless trying to convince anyone of your hypothesis, since you haven’t gone through even the very basic steps to test it."

I was not put here to convince you of anything, I was put here to make you feel uneasy about your assumption that microwave radiation is harmless. Sleep well.

@CHemE
"I was not put here to convince you of anything, I was put here to make you feel uneasy about your assumption that microwave radiation is harmless. Sleep well."

You have not succeeded in making me any more uneasy about microwaves than General Ripper made me uneasy about fluoridated water.

And ChemE has again resorted to insults (really, ChemE, calling Krebiozen a girl? What are you, in 3rd grade?)

@Meg: Yeah, I'm so uneasy I've been microwaving all my meals since ChemE started to post. AND making sure my kids do, so that any children they give birth to are autistic.

Of course, ChemE doesn't address WHY autism was first named in the 1930s, well before the proliferation of microwaves, radio waves, etc, nor why diagnostic substitution has occured.

ChemE,

Wow, all that from a girl who does not know the difference between a mW and a mA as displayed above

I'm not a girl, and given the context the Ma/Mw slip was obviously a typo. Are these pathetic insults all you have to defend your silly claims?

I had no bias until I ran statistics/null hypothesis indicating the dumbass electrical engineers were killing fish with their high gain antennas. All on my blog with years of data and statistics

Yet again you demonstrate that you simply do not understand what you are doing. Selection bias is what happens when you choose to investigate a cluster of autism cases.

My spin on the Texas Sharpshooter Effect. If electrical engineers beam enough high power density radiation into the atmosphere that ricochets off everything they are bound to hit something. Mine is more an effect of not being able to shoot straight.

I'm beginning (?) to think you are seriously intellectually impaired.

The clusters of autism (and dead marine life) were determined by others – see unusual mortality events. I am just showing that clusters of autism/dead fish equals clusters of high gain microwave radiation transmitters

Yet you are utterly oblivious to all the problems inherent in looking at clusters like this. It's embarrassing to watch.

I was not put here to convince you of anything, I was put here to make you feel uneasy about your assumption that microwave radiation is harmless. Sleep well.

You have failed miserably. If someone who thinks you can set fire to seagulls with a radar and mangles analogies so horribly believes that microwaves are dangerous, I feel reassured if anything.

By Krebiozen (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

From Just Dawned on MI

"Of course, ChemE doesn’t address WHY autism was first named in the 1930s, well before the proliferation of microwaves, radio waves, etc, nor why diagnostic substitution has occured."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radio
Today, radio takes many forms, including wireless networks and mobile communications of all types, as well as radio broadcasting. Before the advent of television, commercial radio broadcasts included not only news and music, but dramas, comedies, variety shows, and many other forms of entertainment (the era from the late 1920s to the mid-1950s is commonly called radio's "Golden Age"). Radio was unique among methods of dramatic presentation in that it used only sound. For more, see radio programming.

OOPS, "Just Dawned on MI" failed History

By Stewart D Simonson (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

ChemE has certainly managed to make a copious indelible record of his ineptitude.
It would have been better if we had all explicitly named him in each comment, as Narad does for the classical osteopath doofus.

From just Dawned on MI

"Of course, ChemE doesn’t address WHY autism was first named in the 1930s, well before the proliferation of microwaves, radio waves, etc, nor why diagnostic substitution has occured."

Before the advent of television, commercial radio broadcasts included not only news and music, but dramas, comedies, variety shows, and many other forms of entertainment (the era from the late 1920s to the mid-1950s is commonly called radio's "Golden Age").

OOPS! Epic History Fail! *************************************

Oh, those horrible, horrible 1920's AM radio transmitters with their millions of watts of power and their high gain antennas and their thousands of megacycles per second frequencies!

Krebiozenstein

"I’m not a girl, and given the context the Ma/Mw slip was obviously a typo. Are these pathetic insults all you have to defend your silly claims?"

Sorry, the female fox threw me off. You have my sincerest apology

OMG!!! you used Mw and Ma instead of mW and mA. OMG!!!

OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG

Tell me you know the difference???

That was just another typo, right???

Please tell me it was?

Anybody know how to get in touch with Johnny? He owes me a buck and Christmas is coming up.

Sorry I spelled Anomaly wrong on that last email

a·nom·a·ly
əˈnäməlē
noun
1.
something that deviates from what is standard, normal, or expected. "there are a number of anomalies in the present system"
synonyms:oddity, peculiarity, abnormality, irregularity, inconsistency, incongruity, aberration, quirk, rarity
"ChemE is a rather harmless anomaly"

ChemE- Have you considered not writing like a ten-year-old?

By Gray Falcon (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

ChemE,

Sorry, the female fox threw me off. You have my sincerest apology

Female fox? I have no idea why you would assume that.

OMG!!! you used Mw and Ma instead of mW and mA. OMG!!!

OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG OMG

Tell me you know the difference???

That was just another typo, right???

Obviously - I made a mistake. I often hold the shift key down prematurely (in this case for the slash) and for too long when I'm in a rush, resulting in this kind of typo. I am perfectly well aware of the difference between milliamps and milliwatts and the abbreviations used for them.

Have you finished behaving like a toddler, gloating over what is obviously a simple error? Presumably you are attempting to distract from the fact that you don't have the first idea about how to investigate an autism cluster and that your entire approach is idiotic.

Can you answer any of the questions put to you? Maybe you could start with explaining how these microwaves generate the DC you are so concerned about..If you can't, you will confirm my suspicions about your intellectual limitations.

By Krebiozen (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

one starts to wonder why the military would balk at using this hypothetical radar-based weapon while still using dangerous toys with a high degree of scatter like flame-throwers and high-explosive ordinances.

No shit.

By shay simmons (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

Dimbulb yaps nonsensically about a minor typo but asserts "and it is MW not RF"

Johnny, if you really owe this fool a buck, please pay up. He desperately needs to buy a clue.

Tell me you know the difference???

That was just another typo, right???

Oh, look, Mr. "I think I know where the electrons are going" is having a seizure or something.

doug -

I did indeed post -
“Now show us some pretty pictures of the spectrum on the ground from 3 or 4 locations in that area that show large spikes from multiple transmitters. I have a dollar that says you don’t have any.”

In response, ChemE came back with this -

https://sdsimonson.files.wordpress.com/2015/07/sm-autism-radar-power.png

I maintain that this does not show "the spectrum on the ground from 3 or 4 locations in that area that show large spikes from multiple transmitters".

But, hey, I may be wrong, I often am. If you think the above link warrants it, I will put $2 in the Salvation Army kettle in ChemE's name.

Johnny,

"In response, ChemE came back with this..."

And then I came back with this which is even more obviously non-isotropic

https://sdsimonson.files.wordpress.com/2014/11/melbourne-fl.png

http://darkmattersalot.com/2015/02/13/guam-revisited/

I could show you many more non-isotropic profiles of radiation hitting the ground.

They are all on my website. For low angle parabolic antennas and depending upon atmospheric conditions, power density can be 3-4 times higher hitting the ground underneath that ring around the cone of silence then makes it back to the dish (hypotenuse) because the distance traveled is shorter.

Salvation Army would be great. I just dropped off a christmas tree there

If you think the above link warrants it, I will put $2 in the Salvation Army kettle in ChemE’s name.

I don't think it's warranted, but I'd suggest a different organization than that of "General" William Booth, and not just because of Joe Hill's "The Preacher and the Slave."

150,000 dead fish tell no lies

you, on the other hand ...

I could show you many more non-isotropic profiles of radiation hitting the ground.

You have clearly demonstrated that you don't understand the first thing about (1) RF propagation or (2) selection bias. You're simply desperate for attention of any form.

one starts to wonder why the military would balk at using this hypothetical radar-based weapon while still using dangerous toys with a high degree of scatter like flame-throwers and high-explosive ordinances.

I am reminded of Tim O'Neill's Jungian analysis of Tolkien:

Smaug is what we of Othello’s trade call an area weapon: precise location of the target is not required, nor is fastidious marksmanship necessary for good terminal effect.

By herr doktor bimler (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

Narad: He doesn't know anything about *anything* including weather. Jeez, I knew how tornados formed before I hit puberty. Not that I'm a meteorologist, but being in the midwest, I do try to read up on weather events when I can. His explanation of weather doesn't make any sort of sense.

HDB: so, that book any good? It sounds interesting, though I wonder if it can be found in the States.

By Politicalguineapig (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

There are these things called "libraries." If they don't have a particular book, they can usually order it on inter-library loan.

By shay simmons (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

Wow. I got schooled both by Simonson and ChemE about radio waves. Excuse me while I yawn, totally unimpressed. And the point that autism existed well before the turn of the 20th century (and radio waves), that it was just *named* in the 1930s, went whooshing over their heads.

Next they will blame it on the telegraph....

Shay: The library catalog will just tell me if it's there. It won't give me a review or an opinion. Also given that it's old and a British publication, it might not be in any library in the states.

By Politicalguineapig (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

OOPS, “Just Dawned on MI” failed History

I'd be very careful if I were you in yet another area you demonstrate complete ignorance of. Hint: The term Autism was first used by Eugen Bleuler in the early 20th century. However there are many clear examples of autism (altho' not called that) dating back centuries.

By Science Mom (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

Thanks Mom.

Come to think of it electromagnetic radiation has been around forever too. I am really starting to feel at home around here.

HDB: so, that book any good? It sounds interesting

"The Individuated Hobbit" is entertaining. The author has a droll turn of phrase, and avoids facile or vulgar caricatures of Jungian thinking. My copy was printed in the UK in 1980, but Amazon or the Book Repository might be able to source it for you.

By herr doktor bimler (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

The library catalog will just tell me if it’s there. It won’t give me a review or an opinion. Also given that it’s old and a British publication, it might not be in any library in the states.

I don't even know what the book is, but WorldCat is more than happy to suggest where the nearest holding might lie.

^ The Individuated Hobbit appears to be quite widely held by both university and public libraries.

HDB: Ok, I'll see if I can find it. 1980? Looked older, but paperbacks sometimes don't age well. I think my local source of drugs in paperback form might have it if the library systems don't.

Narad: Never heard of it, but I'm sure it will be an adventure.

Oh, look E conceded that radiation isn't all man-made. Next E'll start hissing at the daystar (sorry, hobbit joke). Engineer should really go back to it's cave and fondle it's instruments, instead of continuing to vomit these things it calls 'knowledge.' Seriously, dude, weather ain't all that mysterious.

By Politicalguineapig (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

Narad: Never heard of it, but I’m sure it will be an adventure.

Are we talking about the same book? It's on the shelves at the St. Paul Public Library.

One small caution with WorldCat: In the Canadian province where I live, there is a sort of "localized" version of WorldCat that can be conveniently used to search all provincial member libraries. It often get hits at my university library, but if I click on the link provided, the library says it can't find it. However, if I take the full 13 digit ISBN and do a search directly in the Uni's library catalog, it comes up. The WorldCat passes only the 10-digit ISBN via the link, yet it shows the 13 digit number in the "can't find it" message - very odd. The links work fine for some other libraries.

Try this link to Google Books. It may not work for you, since it is the Canadian version, but it gives me a "Find in a libray" link (left side) that conjures up WorldCat. For some reason, if I use books.google.com instead of .ca I don't get the "find" link, but that may be specifically because I'm in Canada. You may find the converse.

Check with your local public library about inter-library loans. Also, if you are an alumnus of a university or other post-secondary institution, check with their library about privileges. Along with being able to borrow books and other circulating items, I can get free access to a vast range of on-line journals, though with the annoying need to actually use a computer at the library (quite typical, because of the way the licenses are crafted by the publishers).

^ The "FTFY" image invokes a "r—rd" panel. My apologies; I was just looking for the original and didn't vet it.

Sorry, the Google Books link is for an edition that only comes up in a couple of libraries (Denmark & France). Always try the "View all editions and formats" option on the "Edition/Format" line.

I don't think he's even a script kiddie. He's got two things -

1. Locations plotted in Google Earth.
2. Nothing else

Narad: I was talking about Worldcat, and thank you for pinpointing a semi-nearby source.

Johnny: Laptop counts as an instrument.

By Politicalguineapig (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

Come to think of it electromagnetic radiation has been around forever too. I am really starting to feel at home around here.

When you are as wrong as often as you are, flaccid attempts at smugness and re-direction aren't a good strategy skippy.

By Science Mom (not verified) on 10 Dec 2015 #permalink

OK, I'm confused now...

Why doesn't all that nasty EMR kill off the fungi (which may also be bacteria), which are now causing all the autism since we got shot of thiomersal...err, thimerosal...errr, that mercury stuff, which may or may not now, or ever, be in the correct form to be bioavailable or not and cause brain damage which is what autism actually is...Except it isn't...

And it is nice to know that I can now ignore all potential confounders when looking at any set of supposed data. Gosh, doesn't that just make it soooooo much easier to draw whatever conclusion I fancy? Nice to know that the statistics I was taught all those years ago has now been superseded by this new way of thinking.

Johnny,

"He really doesn't have a model"

Dumber,

"I would say all he really has is a python script"

Would you guys like to put your money where your mouth is and bet $20 each?

Johnny, can I see receipt for your donation?

Murmur @ 680 Why doesn’t all that nasty EMR kill off the fungi (which may also be bacteria), which are now causing all the autism since we got shot of thiomersal…err, thimerosal…errr, that mercury stuff, which may or may not now, or ever, be in the correct form to be bioavailable or not and cause brain damage which is what autism actually is…Except it isn’t…

It will all become clear if you overlay the aurora borealis events and meteorite landings on a map of city water systems. Don't forget to get the tide times from the nearest large body of water and correct for daylight savings time if using summer data.

OK, so we've had some pretty good aurora borealis round here in the last couple of months, so got that...Nearest city has no recorded meteorite landings for some time, but I can find maps of its water systems, so got that...I live a mile from the coast, so got tide times, adjusted to GMT...Does this mean I am autistic?

Damn, that was easier than all those long drawn out assessments I used to do. If only someone had told us that it was this easy!

Johnny
December 10, 2015
"I don’t think he’s even a script kiddie. He’s got two things –
1. Locations plotted in Google Earth.
2. Nothing else"

$100 Bet? Donate to winner's charity of choice? Need receipt confirmation
Include Dumber?

$1,000?

$10,000?

Laptop counts as an instrument.

I'll accept that, and you know what they say about computers - Garbage in, garbage out.

Also -

“A computer lets you make more mistakes faster than any other invention with the possible exceptions of handguns and Tequila.”
― Mitch Ratcliffe

GIGO Boy - if you've got something, post it,

Otherwise, I'm not talking to you, I'm talking about you.

Nice to know that the statistics I was taught all those years ago has now been superseded by this new way of thinking.

Well, Brian Hooker taught us to use simple statistics, and using that lesson, I was able to determine that the average person has 1 breast and 1 testicle.

Nice to know that the statistics I was taught all those years ago has now been superseded by this new way of thinking.

As least you learned statistics. It seems chemE never did.

Helianthus:

I have to admit, then you put it like this, one starts to wonder why the military would balk at using this hypothetical radar-based weapon while still using dangerous toys with a high degree of scatter like flame-throwers and high-explosive ordinances.
It’s not as if there are no applications for area-suppressing weapons. Also, radars seldom explode. The same cannot be said about napalm tanks or ammo depots.

Well, mostly because it would do a bad job of hitting the target. Hitting everything except the target is only acceptable if you are a Stormtrooper. ;-) That said, they really are developing energy weapons. The real reason they wouldn't use a weapon that unacceptably irradiates everything around it is because it's wasting energy. You need to focus that energy on the target if you hope to destroy it.

I was involved in a project to develop an area denial weapon once, though it used high explosives. Radio was used only for communications purposes. It was intended more as a replacement for landmines -- it used explosives, but they could be remotely deactivated, and had a very sophisticated fusing system that allowed them to tell if it was a good guy or a bad guy before blowing up. They were also mobile. It was working quite well, but the budget monster ate it.

ChemE:

My spin on the Texas Sharpshooter Effect. If electrical engineers beam enough high power density radiation into the atmosphere that ricochets off everything they are bound to hit something. Mine is more an effect of not being able to shoot straight.

Y'know, you should probably at least google a phrase before giving your "spin" on it. Hint: it has nothing to do with aiming weapons.

Also . . . so, the radio transmitters around in the 30s were strong enough to cause autism, but cell phone towers aren't? (You got a bit annoyed when I thought you were attributing autism to cell phone towers, and explained in some detail why they are not strong enough. Hmmmm.)

Krebiozen:

Have you finished behaving like a toddler, gloating over what is obviously a simple error?

Of course he hasn't. It's the only thing he has that he can accurately gloat over, so he clings to it like a drowning man.

Narad: @ 674: I am reminded of the old IT threat: "Now go away, or I shall replace you with a very small shell script."

By Calli Arcale (not verified) on 11 Dec 2015 #permalink

@Calli Arcale: my boyfriend has a t-shirt with that threat on it. He wears it to a Geek convention annually. He says it's the only place he goes that everyone who reads the t-shirt laughs. (He also has a t-shirt with the Serenity in a canning jar with holes in the lid. Takes people a bit longer to get that one, but eventually most do.)

Johnny Come Lately:

"GIGO Boy – if you’ve got something, post it,"
Otherwise, I’m not talking to you, I’m talking about you."

https://sdsimonson.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/programs.png

I use about 20 python programs and subroutines

Python is a widely used general-purpose, high-level programming language.[20][21] Its design philosophy emphasizes code readability, and its syntax allows programmers to express concepts in fewer lines of code than would be possible in languages such as C++ or Java.[22][23] The language provides constructs intended to enable clear programs on both a small and large scale.[24]
Python supports multiple programming paradigms, including object-oriented, imperative and functional programming or procedural styles. It features a dynamic type system and automatic memory management and has a large and comprehensive standard library.[25]

Statistics
The P-value approach involves determining "likely" or "unlikely" by determining the probability — assuming the null hypothesis were true — of observing a more extreme test statistic in the direction of the alternative hypothesis than the one observed.

Message to Johnny Come Lately:
Now show me the receipt for your Donation to the Salvation Army or I will consider you a Liar and only talk about you

Did you memorize the definition of a p value or simply read it from a book? You still haven't demonstrated you know diddly squat about doing statistics (which is no surprise since, from the other comments, you don't know squat about electronics or science.

Hitting everything except the target is only acceptable if you are a Stormtrooper.

I am trying SO hard right now not to make snarky comments about the USAF.

By shay simmons (not verified) on 12 Dec 2015 #permalink

I use about 20 python programs and subroutines

GitHub on line 2.

Statistics
The P-value approach involves determining “likely” or “unlikely” by determining the probability — assuming the null hypothesis were true — of observing a more extreme test statistic in the direction of the alternative hypothesis than the one observed.

Yah.

Now, perhaps you could explain what p-values don't mean.

What does ChemE have to do to get banned?

By Jane Ostentatious (not verified) on 12 Dec 2015 #permalink

Threaten another poster or use a sockpuppet. Orac is amazingly tolerant.

By shay simmons (not verified) on 12 Dec 2015 #permalink

Threaten another poster or use a sockpuppet.

You're forgetting about Gerg, who was only banned after repeatedly* suggesting that Orac was a "wuss" or something for not banning him.

* At least four times, as I recall.

Oh, yeah, the Gergles. Almost forgot him. That knucklehead would taunt a sniper.

By shay simmons (not verified) on 12 Dec 2015 #permalink

What does ChemE have to do to get banned?

How I curse the rules of Respectful Insolence that oblige us to argue with ChemE for being wrong on the internet.

By herr doktor bimler (not verified) on 12 Dec 2015 #permalink

Nothing obliges you do to anything. You can, after all, simply ignore him, which is what I've been doing.

I've already proven that one cannot get banned from RI by telling really terrible jokes.

By palindrom (not verified) on 13 Dec 2015 #permalink

Nothing obliges you do to anything. You can, after all, simply ignore him, which is what I’ve been doing.

That was a sardonic HDB response to the request to ban ChemE.

By Science Mom (not verified) on 13 Dec 2015 #permalink

Narad: no, Greg got banned when he started to threaten Lillady. Though Orac generally doesn't do anything about rape threats.

ChemE: just to be curious, what do you think makes weather? How do you explain cold fronts and warm fronts?

Palindrom: Hey, I like terrible jokes. Bring 'em on.

By Politicalguineapig (not verified) on 13 Dec 2015 #permalink

Politicalguineapig

ChemE: just to be curious, what do you think makes weather?

In my model our primary weather patterns are caused by vacuum upsets, not hot air and cold air (that is secondary). Vacuum condenses gasses by lowering the local pressure, cooling them and triggering precipitation and electrical discharge as the vacuum decays/evaporates. The vacuum is nucleating from another dimension of space (multiverse)

"How do you explain cold fronts and warm fronts?"
Vacuum pulls in cold air from the North and warm air from the South since gasses flow from high pressure to low pressure. We have vacuum energy in our jet streams.

Waterspouts, tornadoes and hurricanes are all vacuum disturbances in my model. They temporarily curl up spacetime into a local wormhole and condense water vapor along their eyewall (domain wall) and give off electromagnetic discharge as they decay. By lowering the pressure in the atmosphere they(wormholes) also increase vacuum evaporation over the ocean.

Basically, wormholes are quantumly entangled black holes that have curled up space - they eventually evaporate.

It can explain how the Moore, OK tornado could discharge the equivalent energy of up to 600 Hiroshima bombs. Air and water vapor alone can't give nuclear yields.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2013_Moore_tornado

Chow

Cheme: Wow, talk about unneccesarily complicating things. You're the Deepak Chopra of weather. And no, there wasn't any radiation in Moore. Ever heard of wind speed? In fact, I'm beginning to wonder if you've ever been outside.

By Politicalguineapig (not verified) on 13 Dec 2015 #permalink

They temporarily curl up spacetime into a local wormhole and condense water vapor along their eyewall (domain wall) and give off electromagnetic discharge as they decay.

What a load of crap. No wonder nobody takes you seriously.

Politicalguineapig

December 13, 2015
" And no, there wasn’t any radiation in Moore. "

I said Electromagnetic Discharge. Here is an example.
https://youtu.be/ja74JQ1Heec

What planet do you live on?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning
The rapidly changing currents also create electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) that radiate outward from the ionic channel.

The rapidly changing currents also create electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) that radiate outward from the ionic channel.

Rather than trying to distract with yet more random babbling, could you return to that whole "p-value" routine? Is there a reason you're not open-sourcing your, ah, Python scripts?

Cheme: It can explain how the Moore, OK tornado could discharge the equivalent energy of up to 600 Hiroshima bombs. Air and water vapor alone can’t give nuclear yields.

You did not say 'electromagnetic discharge.' You said 'radiation' which equals nuclear, and there wasn't any. There were electromagnetic discharges, I'm sure, but that would be due to this thing called lightning, and you know, downed power lines. And there is a lot of difference between lightning and an emp pulse. Emp pulses are usually artificial and cover a *wide area.* Lightning is basically a small focused beam of static electricity that strikes a small area. Sometimes, this overloads electric devices, making them short out.
I don't know why you're obsessed with making everything complicated. Especially when you don't have a damn clue about anything.

As for what planet I live on, it's earth, which is apparently not where you live. I mean, seriously, bub, weather is not that complicated. It's a matter of air currents, heating and cooling. What is your damage?

By Politicalguineapig (not verified) on 13 Dec 2015 #permalink

Politicalguineapig
"Cheme: It can explain how the Moore, OK tornado could discharge the equivalent energy of up to 600 Hiroshima bombs. Air and water vapor alone can’t give nuclear yields. You did not say ‘electromagnetic discharge.’ You said ‘radiation’

No, I said "equivalent energy" and "nuclear yields"[of energy]

And yes, lightning gives of EMP pulses of electromagnetic radiation. Read the Wikipedia article:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lightning
"Transient currents during the flash[edit]
The electric current within a typical negative CG lightning discharge rises very quickly to its peak value in 1–10 microseconds, then decays more slowly over 50–200 microseconds. The transient nature of the current within a lightning flash results in several phenomena that need to be addressed in the effective protection of ground-based structures. Rapidly changing currents tend to travel on the surface of a conductor. This is called skin effect, unlike direct currents "flowing through" the entire conductor like water through a hose. Hence, conductors used in the protection of facilities tend to be multi-stranded small wires woven together, that increases the surface area inversely in proportion to cross-sectional area.
The rapidly changing currents also create electromagnetic pulses (EMPs) that radiate outward from the ionic channel. This is a characteristic of all electrical sparks. The radiated pulses rapidly weaken as their distance from the origin increases. However, if they pass over conductive elements, for instance electrical wires, communication lines or metallic pipes, they may induce a current which travels outward to its termination. This is the "surge" that, more often than not, results in the destruction of delicate electronics, electrical appliances or electric motors. Devices known as surge protectors (SPD) or transient voltage surge suppressors (TVSS) attached in series with these conductors can detect the lightning flash's transient [irregular] current, and through an alteration of its physical properties, route the spike to an attached earthing ground, thereby protecting the equipment from damage."

Narad

"Rather than trying to distract with yet more random babbling, could you return to that whole “p-value” routine? Is there a reason you’re not open-sourcing your, ah, Python scripts?"

Narad, I was answering a question. if you are really interested in statistics in Python, I suggest the following:

http://scipy.org/

they have statistics modules built in.
http://docs.scipy.org/doc/scipy/reference/tutorial/stats.html

I have made a database of 10,000 radars/earth stations available on the Google Earth Community in kmz format. I spent approx. 1 year compiling it. Many/post of the power levels, gains, etc are included.

With some knowledge of kmz/xml, Python programming, antenna calculations I encourage you to make your own stuff and you can check my work.

ChemE, you seem to be multiplying entitles without reason and without evidence for their existence, let alone influence. What's your evidence for accessible alternate universes? What's your evidence for these alleged vacuum disturbance? Ditto for "temporary wormholes"?

Most crucially, what if anything does your model predict that isn't predicted by conventional meteorology? That is, how can we test your model? What makes it different from someone asserting that the weather is controlled by invisible pink unicorns, which produce the currents, pressure differentials, solar flux, and so on that we know drive the weather, which he knows this because an orbiting teapot told him this in a dream?

Vicki

"ChemE, you seem to be multiplying entitles without reason and without evidence for their existence, let alone influence. What’s your evidence for accessible alternate universes? What’s your evidence for these alleged vacuum disturbance? Ditto for “temporary wormholes”?"

Answer "Weather Phenomena"

http://darkmattersalot.com/2013/04/15/is-it-our-brane-thats-still-foggy…

It is based upon M-Theory and a braneworld scenario
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brane_cosmology

One prediction from my theory is that we will find "Cold Dark Matter" along eyewalls and in our jetstreams.
http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=4774

they have statistics modules built in

That's nice. So, your "p-values" just plop out of something that you can't describe or justify? In your own words, how does one reckon the false-discovery rate? (I mean, it approaches unity in your case by virtue of putting the cart before the horse, but whatever.)

Let everybody look behind the curtain to see the engineering of the Magic Python's ventral scales, Stewart.

Narad,

I describe the p-value procedure I used on my site. Anybody with a statistics background can verify/falsify my claims as I have made the microwave transmitter database freely available and the fish kills are all in the State Wildlife database I referenced.

http://darkmattersalot.com/2014/01/12/florida-2/

Over the holidays I am going to put together a more formal paper, I ran that analysis a couple of years ago.

I appreciate your interest!

By Cheme911@gmail (not verified) on 13 Dec 2015 #permalink

PGP @708 --

You did not say ‘electromagnetic discharge.’ You said ‘radiation’ which equals nuclear, and there wasn’t any.

Pardon me if you already knew this, but in physics, the word "radiation" is used to refer to all electromagnetic waves, including radio, infrared, and visible light, which usually have nothing to do with nuclear processes, as well as particles shot out by decaying nuclei.

Ionizing radiation, either short-wavelength, high-energy electromagnetic waves or high-speed particles like alpha rays, now those are what you're probably thinking of.

You may well have been correct in context -- I couldn't be bothered to trace the original occurrence of the term in this tedious thread.

Incidentally, the whole brouhaha about cell phones supposedly causing brain tumors gets its legs largely from ignorance of this very point. When most people are told that their cell phone emits "radiation", they assume the worst.

It's kind of funny as well that people speak of "nuking" something in the microwave oven. Of course a microwave has nothing to do with nuclear processes as well, unless it's fed by a nuclear power plant somewhere else.

By palindrom (not verified) on 14 Dec 2015 #permalink

PGP et al. -- Once one starts using wormholes to explain tornados, one has crossed a certain threshold, kind of like Homer Simpson crossing over into the third dimension --
"I wish I'd read that book by that wheelchair guy!"

By palindrom (not verified) on 14 Dec 2015 #permalink

To say it another way, there is a 99.99% probability the NULL Hypothesis is NOT valid

Nope. Your comment is essentially saying their is a 99.99% chance the alternative is true: that is not what a p-value does. It simply measures the chance that the observed response can be attributed to chance alone. You've made the typical freshman error of understanding.

More importantly, your convoluted writing doesn't indicate what, exactly, you are testing, and what the magnitude of this supposed result actually is.

If you don't know what you're doing you shouldn't be doing it.

Palindrome: I knew that, but I wasn't sure if ChemE did. They seem to think all radiation is equally dangerous. (I thought that too, for a while in my childhood, but I grew out of it.) And given how little they know of science, I suspect their degree was mailorder.

By Politicalguineapig (not verified) on 14 Dec 2015 #permalink

Politicalguineapig

"And given how little they know of science, I suspect their degree was mailorder."

I guess you are disagreeing with all of these guys?
https://emfscientist.org/

dean

"To say it another way, there is a 99.99% probability the NULL Hypothesis is NOT valid
Nope. Your comment is essentially saying their is a 99.99% chance the alternative is true: that is not what a p-value does. It simply measures the chance that the observed response can be attributed to chance alone. "

Dean, thanks for for taking the time and clarifying that, I corrected the comment from a couple of years ago. You are awesome! P-Values remain as they are. I would not expect a statistician to understand electrical discharge, radiation modeling, power density and EIRP values as well as Rayleigh scattering, refraction super refraction, ducting, induction and conduction.

Rock on dude!

I don't expect a chemical engineer to understand statistics - you are just another data point to support that expectation.

Dean

"I don’t expect a chemical engineer to understand statistics – you are just another data point to support that expectation."

That is why I had a guy with these credentials help with computing the P-Values two years ago after I could visually see a strong spatial connection.

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), Computer Science. Plus Certificate in Bioinformatics and Computational Biology
2008 – 2013

He made a comment and posted on my blog when he saw my maps. Narad can probably go back and find it.

My conclusion:
Chronic voltage (electrical potential) in our atmosphere triggers low level electrical currents in the Earth & conductive seawater.

I appreciate your feedback.

ChemE: I guess you are disagreeing with all of these guys?

Why, yes, dimbulb I am. I suspect most of these guys are from mailorder outfits or 'universities' like Liberty University and it's clones. The rest are like "Dr" Ben Carson or the "Dr." Geiers- suffering from dementia.

By Politicalguineapig (not verified) on 14 Dec 2015 #permalink

Doctorate in statistics here which is not what your pal has. I stand by my assessment if your lack of ability.

Dean

"I am smarter than everybody at statistics so everyone else is dumb "

A guy is flying in a hot air balloon and he's lost. So he lowers himself over a field and shouts to Dean on the ground:

"Can you tell me where I am, and which way I'm headed?" "Sure! You're at 43 degrees, 12 minutes, 21.2 seconds north; 123 degrees, 8 minutes, 12.8 seconds west. You're at 212 meters above sea level. Right now, you're hovering, but on your way in here you were at a speed of 1.83 meters per second at 1.929 radians"

"Thanks! By the way, are you a statistician?" "I am! But how did you know?"

"Everything you've told me is completely accurate; you gave me more detail than I needed, and you told me in such a way that it's no use to me at all!"

"Dang! By the way, are you a principal investigator?"

"Geeze! How'd you know that????"
"You don't know where you are, you don't know where you're going. You got where you are by blowing hot air, you start asking questions after you get into trouble, and you're in exactly the same spot you were a few minutes ago, but now, somehow, it's my fault!

You’re at 43 degrees, 12 minutes, 21.2 seconds north; 123 degrees, 8 minutes, 12.8 seconds west. You’re at 212 meters above sea level.

As near as I can tell, that location is near a mountain road, at a location that is 530 meters above sea level.

Even his jokes are wrong.

chemE, don't expect to try to wiggle out of a foolish bit of wrong-headed "statistical analysis" by evading the point. You don't have anything valid in your little bit of work - or if there is you haven't explained it.

Sorry - whatever blessing your friend gave you was misplaced - you don't have anything in your post that supports your assertions.

I ran across this while looking up units used in the formula for polyjuice potion (it being the time of year I watch the Harry Potter movies again), and thought "Where have I seen completely silly numbers of (in)significant digits recently?" and thought of chemmy.
from WikiPee: "In the avoirdupois system, the dram is the mass ... exactly 1.7718451953125 grams"
I suppose it is an incontrovertible affirmation of nerdiness to chuckle at that.
Damn! was going to convert that number to dBmg, and my calculator died!

I suppose it is an incontrovertible affirmation of nerdiness to chuckle at that.

Just wait until the Anti–Leap Second fiends have their way.

#728
dean
" don’t expect to try to wiggle out of a foolish bit of wrong-headed “statistical analysis” by evading the point. You don’t have anything valid in your little bit of work – or if there is you haven’t explained it."

If Dean really wants to prove his value he should get off his butt and disprove the analysis/conclusion using his own statistical analysis.

Otherwise he is just expelling hot air to inflate his ivory tower ego.

Has anyone heard from Johnny? He was supposed to put $2 in the Salvation Army Kettle because he lost his bet with me. I hope he is OK

"If Dean really wants to prove his value he should get off his butt and disprove the analysis/conclusion using his own statistical analysis."

Someone was out sick the day they covered 'burden of proof.'

"Burden of Proof"

Plenty of evidence, tens of thousands of dead fish and marine life (victims) in an ongoing unusual mortality event clustered around 23 million watts of pulsed microwave radiation (murder weapon) known to induce electrical currents in nearby seawater and in aircraft electronics 1/2 mile or more away

Narad @731 -- I actually think the leap second is worth saving, which may put me in a tiny minority. Speaking of nerdliness, I once tuned in to WWV when a leap second was about to occur, just for the pleasure of counting out a 61 second minute: "At the tone, zero hours, zero minutes, Coordinated Universal Time ... [58] [59] [60] [0 beeeeep] [1] [2] ... "

One thing about WWV, is it's got a beat. Plus internationally allocated standard carrier frequencies of 2.5, 5, 10, 15, and 20 Megahertz.

By palindrom (not verified) on 15 Dec 2015 #permalink

Just wait until the Anti–Leap Second fiends have their way.

My stars! Is that really a thing!?!

(Attempting to do proper blockquotes. Apologies in advance for possible fail)

"Plenty of evidence, tens of thousands of dead fish and marine life (victims) in an ongoing unusual mortality event clustered around 23 million watts of pulsed microwave radiation (murder weapon) known to induce electrical currents in nearby seawater and in aircraft electronics 1/2 mile or more away"

You have TOTALLY missed the forest for the trees!

All it takes is a couple of quick maps and the answer literally jumps out at you:
Overlay the map of the US transportation system (download here:http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/national_highway_system/) with a map of the average miles driven per automobile per year. The take the the negative image of the map of goat population of the US (available here: http://www.agcensus.usda.gov/Publications/2012/Online_Resources/Ag_Atla…) and it is a far better fit than your data set gives. It appears that researchers have missed this CLEAR conclusion by failing to use the inverse data from the goat population map.

I hypothesize that the root cause of the autism epidemic is that the magnetic field of the automobile ignition system interacts with the platinum ions generated by the catalytic converters, creating small energy attractors which concentrate the solar wind in the brains of preschool children and marine life.

The method by which goats can offset the impact of this ionic impact has not been determined. More research is needed.

The leap second is absolutely worth saving, since the alternatives are worse -- variable duration seconds (ewwww), UTC getting leap seconds but no other time clock so the conversions get progressively worse (pain in the butt), or allowing the nominal day to gradually slide away from the actual day (which sort of defeats the point of a clock based on the day-night cycle).

ChemE:

If Dean really wants to prove his value he should get off his butt and disprove the analysis/conclusion using his own statistical analysis.

Before he can disprove it, you have to give him enough to disprove. What I mean is, you haven't furnished a proof yet. You've furnished various things that looked very concerning to you, but you have not provided an analysis. Lots of numbers and fancy words, but none of the real work needed to actually make your case.

Until you make your case, completely and in detail, there isn't really anything to disprove. The burden at this point remains on you.

Otherwise he is just expelling hot air to inflate his ivory tower ego.

Funnily enough, credentials matter to you when it's someone you claim is supporting your viewpoint, but are just "ivory tower ego" when they are not. I wonder why that might be.

By Calli Arcale (not verified) on 15 Dec 2015 #permalink

There are lots of anti-leap-second people; the basic argument boils down to it being more trouble in the short-to-medium-term to have leap seconds than not. I gather that one of the things going on here is that while most GPS systems ignore leap seconds, Russia uses a GPS system that does account for them. (The organization that deals with these things recently decided to postpone the decision to their next meeting, a few years from now.)

"(The organization that deals with these things recently decided to postpone the decision to their next meeting, a few years from now.)"

Give or take a second.

chemE, as others have pointed out, there is nothing in your science or your model to rebut - wormholes and weather, dark matter thrown in, really - only a complete kook believes that crap.
The only reason I risked looking at your site was to see if you were as equally clueless about statistics as your ranting here makes you seem. You are.
I don't need to rebut a worthless "model" when there is nothing to rebut.

Dean,

Thanks. Do you actually do anything meaningful besides maybe teaching with your statistics degree? Like actually trying to solve problems? I would expect the radiation modeling to be way over your head.

Dark matter/energy make up 95% of the universe, that is pretty much the agreement amongst scientists.

Branes bring rain in my model. Mark my words.

Dark matter does exist, brakes and m-theory are possibly more than mathematical constructs, but neither is intertwined with our weather as some kooks claim.

Dark matter is a placeholder term. Using it as if it were a discrete entity is a very useful indicator of someone who doesn't know what they're talking about. It just means "matter whose presence we can infer from gravitational influence, but which we haven't figured out how to detect." There is no reason to assume it's all one thing, nor any reason to assume it would have any exotic powers. In fact, since we can't detect it yet, there's more reason to suspect it doesn't have exotic powers, given that it's otherwise invisible. Like neutrinos. Heck, a lot of it could *be* neutrinos. Their main feature is that they are almost totally incapable of interacting with anything else.

I don't know about Dean, but I know a couple of guys with advanced degrees in statistics. One works as an engineer. (Used to be my manager, before our last reorg moved me out of his department. They never seem to know where to put configuration management.) The other works as a statistician for a medical device manufacturer, helping develop clinical trials and working with the resulting data.

Statistics degrees are extremely useful.

By Calli Arcale (not verified) on 16 Dec 2015 #permalink

Statistics degrees are extremely useful.

Yes, they are. And, as I'm sure the people you know do, I work hard to help people (other faculty and students, in my case) with analyses. I don't agree with anything you say Calli.

But one of the downsides of the increased availability of computers and software is that people who have no business doing an analysis - like chemE - wrap the most foolish of ideas in language that sounds valid and then claims that it is valid. Crap like that taints the importance of statistics for a lot of people. Aside from the blatant foolishness of chemE's ideas, it is the assertion of "validated by statistics" that is most annoying to me.

Calli -- You write accurately about both leap seconds and dark matter, which is nice to see! Quite a lot of erudition on tap among the commentariat here.

And of course, the sound you hear coming from certain quarters explaining the weather with wormholes and dark matter is the steady creak-creak-creak of a handle being turned. What to they call those handles? Can't quite think of it ...

By palindrom (not verified) on 16 Dec 2015 #permalink

Krebiozen

"There is a correlation between autism and rainfall, clearly rainfall causes autism, no need to look for "

Refracted/reflected microwave radiation is highest during rainfall. That is how a pulsed Doppler radar works.

Scattered, smothered and covered...:)

Maybe there is more indoor mold where there is more rainfall, plus children spend more time indoors and get exposed to mycotoxins. Is there any reason that's a less plausible explanation than yours?

By Krebiozen (not verified) on 16 Dec 2015 #permalink

Global warming and ocean acidification also correlate with the increase in autism diagnoses. What are the odds that we can get all the crunchy-woo parents of autistic children to start working against global warming?

the basic argument boils down to it being more trouble in the short-to-medium-term POSIX

FTFY, I suspect.

The UCO/Lick year 2100 DUTC predictions are here.

One prediction from my theory is that we will find “Cold Dark Matter” along eyewalls and in our jetstreams.

I see that ChemE doesn't know what this word means in the context of physics, either. There's a quote from Sabine Hossenfelder above, but I'm not sure how to get this thing to search.

Narad -- very interesting link to the Lick site, thanks. I suppose we could all move to leap minutes to concentrate the pain every century or so ...

By palindrom (not verified) on 16 Dec 2015 #permalink

I suppose we could all move to leap minutes to concentrate the pain every century or so …

They have a number of pages there, but I can't quite find the one that gives the error in R.A. This one has an older table that suggests failure of most pointing systems with delta-T of 2 s.

Anyway, it's SSRIs taken by mothers during the later stages of pregnancy that cause autism now.

Well, according to some folk in Quebec, who couldn't quite manage to allow for some very obvious confounders...

Narad -- I'm undoubtedly the only person here who sometimes works with (or on) telescope pointing software -- one of the very few applications for which this matters. Allen's assessment seems fine, but was written quite a few years back, and I expect the problem would be viewed as a little easier at this point.

Oddly, I also work on timing problems for which the edge of precision requires correction for leap seconds -- getting the interval between two events a couple years apart to better than a few seconds requires the correction. My required accuracy has been just poor enough to ignore this, but I should really get my act together and implement procedures to make the correction.

I can here eyes rolling among the rest of the commentariat, but hey, it's comment #759, and at least I'm not yelling about evolution being wrong or whatever,, thereby FORCING people to stay up late typing rebuttals as per the classic xkcd.

By palindrom (not verified) on 17 Dec 2015 #permalink

palindrom:

Calli — You write accurately about both leap seconds and dark matter, which is nice to see! Quite a lot of erudition on tap among the commentariat here.

Thank you for the kind words! Yes, we are blessed with a very erudite commentariat! ;-) I love reading your posts as well.

I'm a software engineer, so leap seconds are something I really need to appreciate in my job. They're one of the edge cases that'll break your software if you're not careful! Writing calendar functions can be . . . interesting. So hardly anyone does, when there are perfectly good time classes you can use. But you need to understand the basic reckoning of time within those classes, and understand the limitations of them, or you can run into trouble.

You and Narad discussed telescope pointing software. Another application where it's really important is navigation. We have to account for leap seconds in our computers that talk to various stores on aircraft to tell the stores where they are and where they're supposed to go once dropped. Some of the stores have explody bits, so accuracy is a pretty big deal.

ChemE:

would think that higher income urbanites would mostly have A/C now and indoor mold exposure would be much less overall than in the early 1900’s when autism was 1/10,000 or less.

Given how well mold can thrive on an A/C unit's condenser coils, that may not be a very reasonable assumption. Also, A/C strongly encourages people to stay inside in the summer and get less fresh air, so if there is any mold in the house, they'll breathe in more of the spores today than they would with the same amount of mold a century ago. A/C and central heating are often accused, and with some merit, of increasing rates of respiratory illness.

By Calli Arcale (not verified) on 17 Dec 2015 #permalink

At least in the tropics moisture condensation is a typical problem with A/C units, and especially in hot and humid environment can quickly facilitate a thriving ecosystem of some sort of slimy mucus...

gaist

"At least in the tropics moisture condensation is a typical problem with A/C units, and especially in hot and humid environment"

I agree, moisture also condenses every night in the tropics, on every square inch of surface area, not just low surface area A/C piping. With no HVAC, the entire building will get moldy - floors, walls, ceiling. Lots more surface area than just HVAC piping.

But you have to agree that an A/C unit force-drying the air it cools down is a nifty micro-particle dispersal unit.

And besides, only water damaged areas in my Shenzhen flat were the balcony, and the inside wall below the A/C unit.

In Hong Kong, A/C unit and the cupboard under the kitchen sink had a tie for most black fur between the tiles.

So, even with tropical humidity not every surface had condensation, not by far.

And speaking of tropics in SE Asia, is there a particular reasons branes accumulate there during the monsoon reasons? Or are monsoons not caused by branes like regular rain in your "model"?

Gaist:

"....SE Asia and Branes...

Tropics/equator have a high density of dark matter Branes

https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22129503-100-gps-satellites-sugg…

When the Earth leans toward the sun their entangled orbits take them North toward SE Asia & SE US. In the Winter when Earth tilts away from the sun they orbit to the South and Australia (cyclones) since they are gravitational energy.

Best I can figure...:)

Harris has yet to account for perturbations to the satellites’ orbits due to relativity, and the gravitational pull of the sun and moon. What’s more, preliminary data from NASA’s Juno probe, also presented at the AGU meeting, suggests its speed was as expected as it flew by Earth, casting doubt on the earlier anomalies.

So hardly concrete proof, seems like he/they missed a few obvious counfounders.

So, in your "model", do sea and land temperatures attract branes, or is it the other way around? Because the arrival of the monsoon rains depends more on the difference between the temperatures than on the date or tilt of the Earth...

Tropics/equator have a high density of dark matter Branes

You're a nitwit. What part of "70,000 km" do you not understand?

Come back when you've sorted out category theory.

"Best I can figure"

Which means, basically, there's nothing there.

Worse than child porn?
Holy shit. What kind of self centred monster would think that.