Big East Basketball Preview

Some time back, I offered the right to pick a post topic to anyone who managed to name one of the Physics Nobel laureates for 2006. Tom Renbarger won, and picked his topic:

OK, with Midnight Madness on the horizon, I've decided to request a sort of season preview of two (trying to press my advantage since I got two names) of the following three conferences: A-10, plus one of the Big East or ACC. Or, if you get on a roll, all three. If you're pressed for time, the A-10 would suffice, and maybe something about Maryland. :-)

I've already talked about the ACC, and in this post, I'll take up the Big East.

Let me just begin by saying: this conference has too damn many teams. I mean, seriously, South Florida and Cincinnati? DePaul? What are these teams doing in the Big East? Making my life difficult, that's what.

(Continued below the fold.)

As before, we'll break this into rough groups, starting with Teams That I'm Pretty Sure Will Be Good:

First up is Georgetown, much as it pains me to say that. The Hoyas are looking like a classic Georgetown team: one gigantic center (Roy Hibbert) plus a whole bunch of more-or-less interchangeable guard/forward types. They appear to have about eight guys who are between 6'7" and 6'10", and will probably launch them against the rest of the league in waves. It's like 1985 all over again-- their coach is even named John Thompson.

Also in this category is Pittsburgh, who also have a huge returning center to dominate the paint in Aaron Gray. The question mark here is the guard play-- Carl Krauser is gone, and while they had competent back-ups last year, it remains to be seen if they can step up. Provided they can get the ball over half-court, though, they should be a bruising, physical team, just like the glory days of the conference.

A half-step down from these guys are Teams That Ought to Be Good, But You Never Know:

Topping the list is UConn, who lost seven from last year's team. Honestly, they'd be in the next group down if it weren't for Jim Calhoun, who's one of those coaches who don't rebuild, they reload. They've got what's supposed to be a solid recruiting class, and the only question is whether they'll really pan out.

Marquette was good last year, and return a bunch of guys from that team, but their one loss is a big one: sharp-shooter Steve Novak. They also have no experienced inside players worth mentioning, so it'll be interesting to see how they contend with the Panthers and Hoyas.

In a similar vein, Villanova returns a very solid point guard in Mike Nardi, and should get Curtis Sumpter back after a devastating knee injury. The question for them is really whether Sumpter can be the player he was a couple of years ago. They've got some recruits who are supposed to be good, and some role players with experience, but they're going to need somebody to be the go-to guy.

The most important category, of course, is the Team I Actually Care About, namely the Syracuse Orangemen.

There's good news and bad news for Syracuse. The good news is that they return their entire starting frontcourt from last year. The bad news is, well, they return their entire starting front court from last year, because they were a bunch of flakes. Darryl Watkins has hands like flippers, Terrence Roberts is inconsistent as all hell, and Demetris Nichols was even worse. Last season, you had no idea what you were getting from one night to the next. Throw in the fact that the backcourt responsibilities now fall on Josh Wright and showboating jackass Eric Devendorf, and, well, it's enough to make you really, really nervous.

And yet. Jim Boeheim's not in the Hall of Fame for nothing-- he's shown a remarkable ability over the years to find great players in unexpected places, and get guys who were flaky as juniors to turn into rock-solid contributors as seniors. I don't expect them to tear the league up, or anything, but I'd be a little surprised if they aren't at least on the NCAA bubble come March. If Roberts can be more consistent, Watkins learns to catch, and this Paul Harris kid is as good as people claim, they could do better than that.

After that, we fall to Teams I Have Serious Doubts About.

Louisville had a rough entry to the league last year, but they're getting picked to do better largely because they're coached by Rick Pitino, the rich man's John Calipari. Looking at the roster, they look like a typical Pitino team, which could be good, or could get them pushed around a lot. Tough call.

For some reason, the preview magazine I'm looking at is high on DePaul, and I can't quite figure out why. Yes, they return everybody from last year, but they were pretty bad last year. Granted, they hung a forty-point whipping on Syracuse late in the season, but I'm not sure that means anything.

West Virginia lost pretty much everyone from the great teams they had the last two years-- Mike Gansey, Joe Herber, and Kevin Pittsnogle are all gone. They've got a whole bunch of recruits, but your guess is as good as mine as to whether they're be any good.

Seton Hall was close in a lot of games over the last couple of years, but just never quite got it done. That's the sort of situations where a coaching change can sometimes catapult a team to greater success, and they have, indeed, changed coaches, but they could also completely fall apart. Tough call.

Sticking in New Jersey, Rutgers returns almost everybody from last year. The problem is, their one loss was Quincy Douby, who was the only guy on the team who could score. Who are they going to get points from? Tune in to find out...

Providence also returns a lot of players from a fairly bad team. They could get better, but they need to improve across the board.

Notre Dame, by contrast, lost basically everybody off a fairly bad team. It's not clear whether they have replacements. But, hey, the football team's good again...

Statistically speaking, St. John's almost has to get better. They can't get a whole lot lower than they've been recently.

Seriously, South Florida and Cincinnati are in the Big East? Are you sure about that?

This conference has too damn many teams.