While China has now clearly overtaken the United States in carbon emissions, carbon regulation appears to be finally coming to DC. While legislation failed last week in the Senate, 54 Senators were in favor of the bill - demonstrating bi-partisan support for climate change regulation. I was in DC last week for the Katoomba Meeting, an international coalition of environmental organizations, financial instituions, and intergovernmental agencies dedicated to building an infratructure fund for the planet. Senator John Kerry addressed the group, and was confident that Congress will pass climate change legislation, including cap and trade, in the next four years. Corporate America agrees. According to a recent report by McKinsey, 80% of US CEOs believe climate change legislation will be in place in the next five years. 60% believed incorporating climate change mitigation into their business as strategic.
At the Katoomba meeting this week, there was much talk about the explosion of the carbon markets. That talk was coming not from environmentalists, but from investment bankers and hedge fund managers. Just three years young, the carbon market was worth $65 billion last year. McKinsey predicts that carbon will be the largest commodity in the world by 2030, equivilant to today's oil market - worth 1.6-2.4 trillion. When Goldman Sachs and McKinsey start paying close attention to carbon and emerging water markets, you know that the world is entering a new era of scarcity. And it is a strong hint of some serious change.
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Josh - thanks much for alluding to last week's Katoomba Meeting in Washington, DC. As the risk of seeming overly self-serving, I wanted to point out that we just posted a detailed summary of the event at www.ecosystemmarketplace.com by Canadian writer Chris Wood. I'll be following this up very quickly with pieces on the proposed "nutrient neutral" fund for the Chesapeake Bay and other developments flowing from the meeting.
Steve Zwick
Managing Editor
Ecosystem Marketplace
The awareness and relative openness of Corporate America is really a good thing but how much damages can be done in four years and how much time it would take to make "Corporate China" see the light
Hey Josh - I see where you got the "carbon regulation appears to be finally coming to D.C." line (from the link you provide), but I really don't grasp how they pull that spin out of the rather substantial defeat of the senate bill -- which failed to even score a majority of votes, much less the 60 votes needed, much less make it through the house, much less be signed by the president. I'm all for global warming legislation, but not a big fan of not calling things the way they obviously look.
Have you got any clues why they took such an optimistic view of such a clear setback?
I can see you point Randy, and I have explained a bit more. According to John Kerry and other Washington insiders - many more people were actually for the bill that voted for it at the vote. Five additional Senators that did not vote pledged that they would have voted for it (whatever that means). Kerry (and others) take on it was that, despite defeat, this was a big deal and is a sign that some climate legislation will pass sooner than later. So while Bush would have vetoed any bill that would of passed, things will be different with the next administration. In sum, I was taken back a bit by how many Washington insiders viewed climate change legislation as a given come the next legislation. I hope they are right.
I think people differ greatly on this issue. For example, if it were completely unidentifiable as my own, I would have no problem with a picture of my naked ass being posted on the Internet. Others would be absolutely horrified by the prospect.
Kerry (and others) take on it was that, despite defeat, this was a big deal and is a sign that some climate legislation will pass sooner than later. So while Bush would have vetoed any bill that would of passed, things will be different with the next administration. In sum, I was taken back a bit by how many Washington insiders viewed climate change legislation as a given come the next legislation.
some climate legislation will pass sooner than later
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