Sea ice betting summary

I've been putting off collating all the misc bets that came in. But here we go:

$333 (ie about 3p :-() against Joe Romm on an ice-free Arctic by 2020. P Farrington-Douglas, E200, same terms.

On next years Arctic sea ice being larger than this years record minimum: Nick Barnes, £10; Gareth, £20; Eli, £10 + 40 carrots; Steve Bloom, £20; Phil Hays, £10. And Raymond Arritt offers an indeterminate amount of beer. $100, Benjamin Franz.

Did I miss anyone? And is anyone else interested? - the book isn't shut yet.

More like this

Its the traditional sea ice round up season. This year I have some solid wins (a bit of real money; Luna and Fred and Alastair I think) and a marginal loss (50 Quantloos to The Penguin). Just to prove how debased I am, here is an excel spreadsheet graph: My prediction was that the ice would "…
Just a post-of-record, following Brian Schmidt, that I have a $333 bet against Joe Romm, with me taking the "cold side" of: at no time between now and the end of the year 2020 will the minimum total Arctic Sea ice extent be less than 10% of the 1979-2000 average minimum annual Arctic Sea ice extent…
Over at NoTricksZone they claim they're desperate to bet that (Arctic) sea ice will increase, not decrease, in the "future". However, the cheapskates are only offering $1k, which isn't worth getting out of bed for out to 2022. I offered them $10k, and a closer date, and guess what - they jumped at…
Time for another look at sea ice. Here is the familiar IARC-JAXA plot: And we see: well, it is looking low, and has been consistently all winter. Not record-breakingly, like it was last December, but even so. Interesting. This year, I'm not planning to run a book, unless anyone offers to make a…

if you loose the second bet (next years'), don't you think you'll get somehow closer to losing the first one as well ?
you should bet on opposite positions, to cover your losses :)

You forgot my $100 on Arctic sea ice. ;)

[Sorry! Added -W]

By Benjamin Franz (not verified) on 24 Jan 2008 #permalink


what about this - 2008 *OR* 2009 sea ice minimum will set record (acc. to NSIDC) - let's say 20£.

[I'd have to work out the odds on that, which isn't worth £20 of my time :-). Don't misunderstand me: sea ice is definitely on a long-term decline. But I'm not of the opinion that it is in dramatic monotonic decline. If you also think that, we're not in enough disagreement for a useful bet -W]

Despite the low anomaly figures in the last couple of months, I'm still feeling pretty confident about this bet. This year's melt season is going to be a doozy. Those satellite images of the Beaufort Sea a few weeks ago were stunning: huge tracts of open water.
I'd rather lose, of course.

By Nick Barnes (not verified) on 11 Feb 2008 #permalink

The images I'm referring to are this animation, linked from here. Open water both north and south of Banks Island, in January and early February. Unprecedented, and I think these relatively narrow fractures might fall under the radar of the area and extent numbers at CT and NSIDC; the extent numbers especially. I predict a very rapid fall of the numbers in April and May.
See also this news story.

By Nick Barnes (not verified) on 11 Feb 2008 #permalink

Interesting link. My thoughts on the longer term prospects for the Arctic elicited a very similar response from a senior sea ice researcher. More fresh water from Siberian rivers and Greenland, slower THC, less heat shipped up from the south, therefore no guarantee of the ocean forcing continuing at current rates. I'm in no position to disagree, but wouldn't open ocean and wind/storms increase mixing of the fresh water layer?

I haven't found any more British pounds yet, William, but I am looking...

As posted down Eli's burrow... I'm in for another tenner (it was sent by an aged aunt as a Christmas present for the kids). So that's £30...

[OK! -W]