Just a quicky, since I'm here. The current sea ice extent has just become unexciting. There is hope for my money yet!
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This year's sea ice was unexciting. NOAA goes for "2015 Arctic sea ice fourth lowest on record" which is doubtless true.
Tamino has some helpful plots, so I've nicked one. I'm pleased that my 2014 comment "Hopefully that too [i.e., 2012] will look like an outlier in years to come" now looks quite…
Nothing much going on with sea ice at the moment, but people are getting excited about it, so why shouldn't I contribute to the smoke?
[A little concept I just created in the comments but am so pleased with I'm going to put it here: is 2007's Arctic sea ice like 1998's global temperature?]
First up…
Summer Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies over the Arctic Ocean and Their Influences on September Sea Ice Extent: A Cautionary Tale (Mark C. Serreze, Julienne Stroeve, Andrew P. Barrett, Linette N. Boisvert, DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025161) says "sea ice is complicated". Or, in more detail:
Numerous…
Well, you may call me a wild-eyed jumper-in-too-early but I'm going to call this year's sea ice as "unexciting".
There's maybe a month left, but there's no way its going to fall off the scale in that time [*]. Indeed, its looking pretty middle of the road: about the same as 2010 or 2008. Its…
How many bets have you? Two?
UAH channel 4 remains exciting, though. I still don't know exactly what that means but it's closing in on the record set way back in 2009.
http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/
Ron Lindsay's (University of Washington) latest forecast (assimilating PIOMAS data to end June):
the predicted extent is 3.96 +/- 0.34 million square kilometers
I think you're on thin ice, father William...
2010 now has more extent (and area) than 2007.
Yes, you are probably getting fewer posts here now it isn't doing exiting record lowest (for time of year) things. But that is not too surprising and our bets don't need a record for you or us to lose.
Yes, the 2010 trendline has just (barely) crossed the 2007 line, but that doesn't make the data unexciting! Ron Lindsay's model (from my alma mater) still predicts a record low, and the CI on that estimate is narrowing! The end of July reports should put the final nails in the coffin.
Someone has placed a large order (well 50) on MIN.ARCTIC.ICE:2010>2009 at 35. This would seem to imply you are favourite to win this years bets.
[Thanks for the reminder. I must have a look (can't from work, gambling sites are banned). Going fromthe most recent pix http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm I'd be confident of >2007. Not sure about >2009 though -W]
Now have buy orders of 50 at 35 and 50 at 45.
Just wondering if you are interested in the above hedge offered on intrade. You might win both.
#5 Can't see it happening myself.
I'm thinking of paying up - 2010 looks more and more like 2006, not 2007.