You didn't link to Tamino there ;)
Your Tamino link is wrong.
The raise one's head and look that is in numerous enterprise is anxiouslied expect in, on August 31, the Central gucci outlets Bank allotted the 2nd batch of tripartite to pay license tag before was restricted greatly on Gucci Backpack September 1 eventually, have escape from a danger of 13 enterprises tiger's Gucci Clutches mouth-jaws of death, among them Shanghai has 5, it is Shanghai silver respectively couplet electron pays a Gucci Evening service limited company of business affairs of electron of advantage of limited company, Gucci Hobos linkage, Shanghai free of limited company of service of the company that get be an Gucci Shoulder Bags official, Shanghai buys an enterprise to serve limited company, Shanghai limited company of technology of network of Fu Gucci Top Handles Youjin be in harmony, get be an official, free to buy He Fuyou to be obtained among them approved Gucci Totes imprest card to issue with accepted business, this is meant, this a few appearance in citizen gucci outlets hand advance cost gets stuck not to have the risk of out of service again. However, kang Ka of gucci outlets store couplet China OK, lofty, advantage is connected wait for the imprest card company with bigger gucci bags outlet circulation, still not " take one's place in the ranks " . Application morning and evening decides to win card timeIn 13 businesses that win louis vuitton outlet a medal this, 7 enterprises got advancing getting stuck emission be permitted with what louis vuitton bags accept, and there are 8 to obtain batch of imprest card to issue only in the first batch of 27 home companies with accept photograph comparing, there was very big growth on scale, this also confirm our newspaper reports before this " imprest card " card " live license plate " in, imprest cost blocks will be key of the 2nd wholesale card to guess. The reporter is called so that be an official blocks market department to concern chief, phone that she appears very excited, "Company fluctuation is very deeply anxious recently, the license plate before saying to be restricted greatly all the time before this did not make fun of, did not think of at the last gasp or the favour that gained the Central Bank. " the development to prospective business and dilate, this controller expresses, still be enmeshed in the joyance that takes a card at present, of short duration did not plan to next making. Dealing every time always is a few jubilate a few anxious, business of 100 couplet cable, advantage is connected, the imprest card such as Niusida this or on a list of names posted up anonymous, before this for application " imprest card is issued with accept " business undertakes upgrading to the system and the fir heart company of card of suspensive carry out still also is absent row. "This a few enterprises of Shanghai are the first batch loses out, application time is earlier, one of standards that can judge the Central Bank to deal from this apply for namely fair shown time is ordinal. Resembling this some obtaining card business dimensions is not very big, the specification should close only compasses is OK take next license plate. " mass troops of fir heart vice-president falls to taking " imprest card is issued with accept " business still is full of expect. Mass troops tells a reporter, the time that files time depends on the preparative speed of material, and the security of a few systems that the Central Bank must include to appoint in submitting data detects orgnaization report. Shanghai information safety evaluates attestation center is to detect one of orgnaizations, the staff member tells a reporter, they basically detect the systematic security that tripartite pays a company and business safety, once discover the enterprise has unqualified place, must rectify and reform, put forward to apply for to detect again next. Detect only eligible, just enter likely fair show flow. Couplet China OK blocks scope of application but shrinkAlthough many of short duration did not obtain the imprest card of license plate, if special, advantage connects Si Ma to wait or be issued in the market, but to foreground, they are anxiety-ridden, "Although we still are in hairpin, but the feeling was not sent before so set his mind at, still come out without detailed rules now, but say to forbid one day which to say to stop had to stop, the card that nevertheless we assure the citizen is existing or can use normally. " advantage connects customer service personnel to tell a reporter. Also the part advances card begins " suddenly turn hostile " . The reporter learns, shanghai's biggest imprest card hair is peddling the function that gets stuck to OK since this day of one of business of 100 couplet cable is made adjust. "The OK that issues before September 1 gets stuck, its utility is changeless, the new card of late on September 1 travel, use in the market that can leave in division of 100 couplet group only. In other words, OK card turned only use into card from former multipurpose card. " OK check customer service tells a reporter. And ask about when the reporter, when can the OK card that issues after September 1 resemble same before, customer service expresses helplessly " estimation after waiting for license plate to come down only, just can restore " . To this, zhang Meng of analyst of easy view international expresses, the enterprise turns his multipurpose card into only use card, also be one of outlets, lest in the future by the Central Bank " card " dead, what business is not done. Imprest card encounters " choice "In unfathomable of imprest card future when, the happiest likelihood receives the ox of card namely. Many citizens fear the consumption in the hand blocks invalidation, in succession low undersell, in order to reduce a loss, and ox also closes so that be very happy with it. Before paragraph time, OK gets stuck reclaim the price is maintained all the time in 97 fold, but after September 1, the price that OK card reclaims considerably " diving " . "The market level that OK blocks from before 97 fold fell generally 95 fold, because hold calorie of person,still basically have the intention that is eager to carry out card. " one is in people square " deal " ox tells a reporter. And another ox " more firm " , "The OK card here closes only 92 fold " . Ask about when the reporter why when he is more lower than the discount of other ox, this ox great says, "The person that because sell now,blocks is very much. "The person that because sell now,blocks is very much.. Of course, not be to only OK card depreciates reclaim, very much card is faced with even " homeless " circumstances. "I accept OK card only now, simate the card that a few have bit of market closes only small, for instance 1000 yuan of less than, and did not close like the not quite famous card such as spider card. " ox prevent the boss tells a reporter, these " small card " had not taken license plate now, the following direction is bad to say. Nevertheless the personage inside course of study expresses, the citizen need not be eager to the card in low undersell hand, because hairpin chamber of commerce assures,hold the interest of calorie of person. Central Bank detailed rules may come on stage very quicklyThe expert predicts, the license tag that tripartite of Chinese pays a company can send 200 pieces or so in all. Current, the whole nation is declared " pay business licence " the enterprise already amounted to 174, but up to now only 40 enterprises are obtained batch, a large number of enterprises still wander in this one doorsill besides, these business obverse sides are being faced " hind license plate times " bemused, its bewilderment basically is centered at the business henceforth how to should be begun. The personage inside course of study expresses, those had handed over license plate to apply for but the disbursement that has not win a medal formally enterprise, still can continue to begin professional work after September 1. "That is to say, central Bank respect can give ' transfer period ' , but specific time length is not affirmatory still. " this personage says so. Before this, the reporter sees on Central Bank website, central subbranch of a bank released Central Bank Changchun to save blame finance orgnaization to pay business to permit the announcement that declares time limit and item about Jilin first, emphasize again up to on September 1, 2011, provincial the blame finance orgnaization that already was engaged in paying professional work has not take license plate, do not pay professional work so that continue to be engaged in. Zhang Meng predicts, undertake adjustment about the deadline hopeful September 1, later or will release sequel in succession license plate and wait for a problem to issue relevant regulation to obtaining a card to pay an enterprise to exit. (Article origin: IT times author: Pan is little clever)
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We can't rule out the possibility that Muller thought he'd get the opposite result when he began the whole process, can we? If not, I find that a sufficient explanation for his bothering to do it.
I think Muller really believed his results would be different. He however has the integrity to publish the truth.
It's not easy to admit you were wrong .
[That is not an unreasonable point. He was a fool to think the first, but if that was what he thought, he did have integrity to admit a change of mind. Mind you, the first implies a lack of integrity too: I think it is pretty clear from many comment he made that he never bothered to look at the prior work in detail -W]
Your Tamino link currently points to your old Muller post.
[Oops. Thanks (and to everyone else), fixed -W]
The only reason Muller thought the opposite temperature trend could have been the outcome is a lack of wisdom. QED.
The results may be boring, but the comments from the peanut gallery at Watts and Judy's are anything but. In fact they are hilarious!
Well, somehow BEST was able to extend the record back to 1800 AD. [As in making sausage, BEST not to inquire how its done.]
[I'd missed that in all the hoopla. It might bear looking at -W]
Judith Curry explains:
> the REAL problem with the surface temperature data set lies with the ocean data. I hope that the Berkeley group will be able to extend their efforts to include ocean data.
[Curry is a fool -W]
"We" bothered to do this, so Anthony Watts could get another hissy-fit? First lure him in, chew a little, and then spit him out!
More seriously: there's some new data analysis in the BEST project that appears to be useful.
[Yes, I think that is right: there is a minor improvement or difference in the analysis. But nothing to justify much attention from the outside world -W]
Richard Black's piece at the Beeb had this to say:
"I was deeply concerned that the group [at UEA] had concealed discordant data," Professor Muller told BBC News.
"Science is best done when the problems with the analysis are candidly shared."
[Indeed. It is clear that Muller fell for the septic hype, and didn't bother do any of the basic checking beforehand. Like reading other people's papers, for example. But now he has gone to all this effort, he needs to find some reason for having done it -W]
"Our biggest surprise was that the new results agreed so closely with the warming values published previously by other teams in the US and the UK," said Professor Muller.
"This confirms that these studies were done carefully and that potential biases identified by climate change sceptics did not seriously affect their conclusions."
I think it's pretty clear that Muller thought he would identify problems in the existing temperature records, not necessarily that the answer would be different but problems X,Y and Z would be identified and then rectified by the BEST team thus improving the overall science.
He was likely under the impression that all the noise generated by skeptics must ultimately stem from real problems with the data and that rectifying those problems would satisfy their concerns. He was probably surprised at the lack of "low hanging fruit" in the records which his team could fix and I'm sure he'll be further surprised when skeptics regard him as part of the problem.
Muller knows he's smart and honest and competent, unlike every climate scientist, so only he can do a good job. The world needed him, that's why he bothered! It must have been quite a shock to get the same results as the idiot liar incompetents.
Rest assured, this will have no impact on his firm belief that he is superior to the folks who somehow managed to get the right answer while being stupid incompetent liars. They just failed to lie effectively, I guess.
And to add to the hilarity, Don Easterbook has managed to get a textbook on climate change published at Elsevier (no, I am definitely not linking to it).
Notable experts contributing:
Don Easterbrook himself, the Viscount, errrr...Ali G/Borat, Steve Goddard, Joseph D'Aleo, and Nils-Axel MÃ¶rner (plus some less colorful people in the climate debate like Scafetta).
[Elsevier very definitely is Only In It For the Gold -W]
I suppose Easterbrook is teaching a class and he'll force his unsuspecting students to shell out $120 for a book which has no useful information in it.
Answer to easy question: RR and Muller's daughter needed employment. It's a tough job market, after all. Betcha they've got plans for after the ocean data, too.
pough, Muller is, after all, a physicist dabbling in a different field.
[The apparent nepotism, and everyone ignoring it, is a bit odd -W]
"Indeed. It is clear that Muller fell for the septic hype"
Yes they shot themselves in the foot. If Muller hadn't fallen for the septic hype they wouldn't now be reeling from the damage he's caused them (it's ironic that someone who fell for their hype has caused them more trouble in this way than all the Hansens, Phil Jones, etc). If Muller had from day #1 realized their claims were bogus he would probably never have set up BEST, or at the very least they would have written him off from day #1 as part of "the team".
Many skeptics are now trying desperately to assert that they never questioned the surface temperature records and that the "real issue" is something else. But interestingly that isn't working at all and seems to have exposed a flaw in their organization (or lack of)
It seems that while there are "tactical" benefits in being a leaderless rabble living in an echo chamber, there is at least one big drawback: when something goes wrong, as in this surface record case, the whole group of climate sceptics gets tarred with the same brush, precisely because the echo chamber makes it look like they were all saying it (or enough of them to matter).
I thought Easterbrook had gone emeritus, literally as well as figuratively.
Tim Lambert has some good comments, including a dandy set of quotes from Delingpole.
[I've linked Lambert. I can do without Delingpole. Here is a Q for your indefatiguable self: Muller, I've heard it said, strongly criticised someone - Mann perhaps; maybe Jones - for producing a graph without error bars. Now he has done the same himself. But can you source the quote I'm after? -W]
OK. BEST is actually MEDIOCRE but it shows that no matter what part of the record is used and what methods are employed, the answer is the same. The data gives the correct result.
Someone smarter than me said that hockey sticks show up every time because the data is hockey stick shaped.I guess its hot shaped too.
I'm not sure.
It's not in Muller's 2004 article that swallowed the PCA business and said:
"Let me digress into a short technical discussion of how this incredible error took place. "
"The net result: the principal component will have a hockey stick shape even if most of the data do not."
Similar material is included in his Phyiscs for Future Presidents: The Science Behind the Headlines.
(I have the 20089 version, he has many variants of this book.)
p.295: "Mann's hockey stick plot was not mroe universal than the rpevious work, not more free of bias, but jsut the opposite."
"Its report stated that Mann had underestimated his errors (the gray regions in the hockey stick plot) and that with the correct and much lager error bars, no conclusion about the presence or absence of that period could be drawn from Mann's data. ..
In the end there was nothing new left in Mann's papers that the National Academy supported, other than the idea of using principal components was in principle, a good one."
Anyway, read the whole section pp.292-299. Praises McI+McK, doesn't mention Wahl&Ammann, etc.
I have read the Japanese edition of Muller's book which is translation of the American imprint in 2008.
On one hand, he did not doubt basics of anthropogenic global warming.
On the other hand, he believed that the study that produced the hockey-stick graph was bad, and it seemed that he thought the scientists involved were incompetent. (Note: It was before the forced release of e-mail messages.)
So, it seems natural that the apparent inconsistency forced him to think that more checking would be necessary.
It is extraordinary that he launched a real project rather than just writing criticism.
He seems to be over-confident in many aspects, but I think we sometimes need such a person.
As I see comments about climate change by some Japanese physicists (though most of them are after the e-mail release affair) as well, it seems that there is a certain source (or multiple ones) of stories which denounces IPCC and particularly the authors of the "hockey-stick" paper, which is considered credible among many circles of physicists. I think that the source must be physicist(s). Mosher and Fuller or Montford cannot be credible sources to physicists without endorsement of some seemingly credible physicist(s). But I cannot identify the source.
Notes to my previous comment.
(The first half)
Muller's main target of doubt in 2008 was millennial climate, while that in 2010 was centennial climate. The change was probably because of the e-mail affair.
(The second half)
This is an issue of social networks, or of "six degrees" (of John Guare, not of Mark Lynas). I suspect that someone who is connected to many physicists was involved in propagation of rumors by adding credibility among physicists, and that his/her network included Muller.
I do not know who that is.
Perhaps Frederick Seitz while he was alive.
Fred Singer unlikely, for pure physicists likely regard him as a technocrat or an engineer rather than their peer.
Freeman Dyson unlikely, for he is a known maverick who often says incredible things.
Will Happer possible, but perhaps those physicists who do not share his political stance do not believe what he saysãabout climate.
Ivar Giaever ... I don't know.
[Its an interesting idea - someone in the physics community trusted by the rest but pushing odd stuff. Maybe if Muller ever comes straight we might find out -W]
Boring? You should see what it looks like after a Hate-Mail transform
This version was reported on BBC Radio 4 this morning.
[Well, we already know that Curry is a bozo, but I guess it is nice of her to remind us of this occasionally -W]
Re: my last comment.
But many Radio 4 listeners will never know.