Libya
stoat | August 25, 2011
Time to be nice about something. I was quite cynical in February, but to my surprise we did do something useful, the rebels were brave enough to overcome their lack of organistaion, and after much chaos and death it has worked; the "rebels" are now the government, Gaddafi is a fugitive from justice. The fighting isn't over but the result of the fighting is not in doubt.
However, as we managed to conclusively demonstrate in Afghanistan and Iraq, winning the war is the easy bit. Likely, everyone has learnt lessons from that. And likely, Libya is in a better starting position that either. So,…
stoat | April 15, 2011An unusually forthright statement by our Glorious Leaders:
it is impossible to imagine a future for Libya with Gaddafi in power. The International Criminal Court is rightly investigating the crimes committed against civilians and the grievous violations of international law. It is unthinkable that someone who has tried to massacre his own people can play a part in their future government. The brave citizens of those towns that have held out against forces that have been mercilessly targeting them would face a fearful vengeance if the world accepted such an arrangement. It would be an…
mikethemadbiologist | April 8, 2011Tom Hayden reminds us of two costs of the Libyan war*:
If the US gets lucky this time, Power will be vindicated. It's possible that US airpower can protect opposition ground forces on the road to Tripoli until Qaddafi's regime collapses from within. Even then, the US will have to take part in an unpredictable occupation of Libya until a new set of governing institutions are created, a process that might take months or years. The cost will climb into the billions in deficit spending while the budget crisis worsens at home. Any triumphant new US allies, like the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group,…
mikethemadbiologist | March 28, 2011Because that's not been his MO so far. A long-time reader emailed and asked me why I haven't commented on Libya. Well, it's simple: as far as I can tell, the U.S. government has a long-standing policy of doing the opposite of what I want when it comes to matters of war and peace. Nonetheless, I really do hope our aimless Libyan 'kinetic military action' works out well--I really would like Juan Cole to be right.
But the problem is that I'm old enough to remember when the Libyan War was only supposed to be a no-fly zone. Then it morphed into bombing armor. And now we're considering arming…
stoat | March 19, 2011 Omar Khayaam, sorry I can't do the bold around "distant" in a title. I gave Hugo the popcorn on friday, but it didn't really apply until today. It looks like the Frogs win the first strike award whilst Gaddafi gets the lying scumbag award. The end result of the Gaddafi-vs-the-West military fight is in no doubt; quite where that leaves the ground war is less clear. Probably in an Afghanistan-type situation, where we (well, the US in that case) bombed the Taliban so the Northern Alliance could take over. Only lets hope this time we don't collude with the drug-dealers; as far as I can tell the…
sastyk | February 24, 2011Two good recent articles on the implications for oil prices and production of the situation in Libya. First, Tom Whipple's always cogent overall analysis:
While the 1.6 million barrels a day (b/d) that the Libyans pumped in January may not appear significant in a world that produces some 88 million barrels each day, we should remember that those barrels are being consumed somewhere in a world where they are consumed just as fast as they are produced. If there is anything that we have learned in the last 40 years, it is that relatively small disruptions in oil production can lead to…
stoat | February 22, 2011
(ht What's Happening In Libya? Ctd.)
Exciting times indeed. And just for once, it looks like We could actually do something useful: establish a no-fly zone over Tripoli. But, we'll prevaricate and do nothing until too late, so a few more Libyans will die. It will still be worth it for them, though.
Refs
* Egypt's Mubarak resigns as leader!