Pandemic preparedness
revere | December 12, 2009We complain when there isn't enough swine flu vaccine and we complain when our health departments don't count all the cases. It's probably good so many people are out of work and can't eat in restaurants, because they aren't getting inspected because all available staff are trying to deal with the flu pandemic:
The current swine-flu wave may have peaked, but thousands of public health workers are trying to vaccinate millions of people against the new disease, fearing that another wave could emerge in the new year. Yet recession-driven budget cuts have thinned their ranks so far that they are…
revere | December 10, 2009The other day the British Medical Journal (BMJ) published a clutch of articles about whether Tamiflu was as useful a drug as some have touted. I read the main article, another one of the Cochrane Collaborative meta-analyses of the studies they deem useful about any particular subject, and it didn't seem to make much news. It confirmed what their previous review had said about the neuriminidase inhibitor antivirals for influenza (Tamiflu and Relenza): these drugs work but their effect is modest. We've been saying the same thing for years here, not because we did a fancy meta-analysis, but…
revere | December 2, 2009While I was otherwise occupied with family matters last week there was news on the flu front that got past me. Declan Butler at Nature News reported on the extensive efforts to get a handle on the prevalence of swine flu infection in various populations by looking for evidence the immune system has reacted to the presence of the virus. All of the studies mentioned are still underway or being peer reviewed so Butler didn't report results, but Fergus Walsh did report some preliminary but leaked results from one of the smaller studies in the UK. Both reports have interesting information, but I'…
revere | November 17, 2009The blogosphere (DemFromCT at DailyKos) and the main stream media (Alan Sipress at the Washington Post) brought us the two faces of the current flu pandemic. Like Janus, one took lessons from the present and past, the other looked worriedly to the future.
Dem's piece on flu at DailyKos (a regular feature of the world's biggest political blog) is superb. Most everyone who regularly reads about flu in the blogosphere (and it is a huge readership) knows that DemFromCT is the blog handle of an expert who has been writing about pandemic flu for years (as long or longer than we have and we are…
revere | November 16, 2009We were asked repeatedly offline and in the comments for our views on what was or was not going on in the Ukraine, but we steadfastly declined to post on it. We didn't know any more than you can find out from news sources, so we had nothing to add in the way of hard information, We did know there was a WHO team on the ground and we thought it best to wait to find out more. We still don't know much, except that news reports are suggesting that the health care system in the Ukraine is a shambles and its likely the chaos and panic were self-inflicted more than virally inflicted. Mike Coston over…
revere | November 12, 2009I don't know if the rest of the world laughs at the US, but I feel quite sure they at least shake their collective heads when they hear how we lack one of the most important non-pharmaceutical measures against pandemic flu: paid sick leave. Of course only those countries with a policy of paid sick leave would be shaking their heads. It turns out, though, that's just about everybody:
The United States is one of only five countries in the world without a national policy on paid sick leave, Dodd said.
"We're in the company - and I say this respectfully of these countries - of Lesotho, Liberia,…
revere | November 5, 2009For somebody so out to lunch on so many issues there is something undeniably likable about Ron Paul. As congressthings, he and Dennis Kucinich (there's an odd couple) had the clearest and best positions on the Iraq debacle. And as a principled libertarian (there seem to be some big chinks in Paul's libertarian armor -- like reproductive choice -- but his passion is undeniable), there is something admirable about him. It almost makes you forget his principles are self-centered, wrong-headed and inhumane. Little gnome-like figures aren't supposed to be that unfeeling toward others. Anti-science…
revere | November 4, 2009It's being described as a "dramatic settlement" that will set a pattern for the nation. Let's hope so, because the agreement reached yesterday by the California Nurses Association/National Nurses Organizing Committee (CNA/NNOC) and hospital player Catholic Healthcare West (CHW) sounds like just what the doctor ordered. It covers 32 CHW facilities in California and Nevada, where CNA/NNOC represents 13,000 registered nurses.
Some details:
A centerpiece of the agreement is the creation of a new system-wide emergency task force, comprised of CNA/NNOC RNs and hospital representatives following…
revere | November 3, 2009A reader asked an offline question that is general enough to post about (NB: I try to respond to as many questions as I can, but I'm traveling and can't keep up, so in most cases I won't be able to respond. I also don't hand out personal medical advice over the internet, something I consider bad practice). CDC says on the basis of clinical trials with the unadjuvanted vaccine used in the US that two shots, 21 days apart, are needed for children under 10. WHO, on the other hand, is telling its member nations that one will suffice. Why the confusion?
We may be comparing apples and oranges. Many…
revere | November 1, 2009We are otherwise occupied, but fortunately DemFromCT has a great status report on swine flu up at DailyKos. I suggest you also follow the first link to his piece at The Arena, although reading after his astute observations is not for the faint-of-heart. The politicization of this issue by Republicans is to be expected and typically unfair (not to mention uninformed). As Dem points out, the Bush Administration did a lot of the heavy lifting that made dealing with this much easier and deserves credit for that. We took them to task here for not shoring up a badly deteriorated public health and…
revere | October 30, 2009One frequently hears claims that the current swine flu pandemic has been exaggerated because there are "only" 1000 or so deaths, while seasonal flu is estimated to contribute to tens of thousands of deaths a year. There are two reasons why this is not an apt comparison. We've discussed both here fairly often. The first is that the epidemiology of a pandemic and seasonal flu are very different. Epidemiology studies the patterns of disease in the population and swine flu is hitting -- and killing -- a very different demographic from seasonal flu. Its victims are young and many are vigorous and…
revere | October 27, 2009On Saturday we posted our take on The Atlantic magazine article by Shannon Brownlee and Jeanne Lenzer. It's a major story in the November issue, a banner across the top of the cover page reading: Swine flu: Does the vaccine really work? We tried to ignore it. People kept asking us to comment on it, but we didn't want to get entangled in vaccine controversies. As Orac warned me, it's a game of Whac-A-Mole. But we got fed up and posted our global response, not a point by point refutation, since that wasn't what the issue was. Our main point was that it was a straw man argument built around the…
revere | October 24, 2009I keep getting asked about the Atlantic Magazine article, Does the Vaccine Matter? by Shannon Brownlee and Jeanne Lenzer, two reporters whose particular bias is that we as a nation are "over treated." As a generalization that's probably true, and finding examples isn't hard. Unfortunately by taking as their main example flu vaccine during a pandemic, they have not only picked the wrong example but created more confusion at a time when there's already too much.
Here's the gist:
Vaccination is central to the government’s plan for preventing deaths from swine flu. The CDC has recommended that…
revere | October 23, 2009While we don't yet know with certainty the relative contributions of the three most likely modes of transmission for influenza (large droplets, small aerosols of viral laden material that remain suspended in the air for hours or days, inanimate objects like door knobs or desk tops), it is certain that if you are in the path of a cough or sneeze or even vigorous talking from someone actively shedding flu virus you are at risk. When it comes to delivering big time viral loads, nothing quite beats a vigorous cough or sneeze.
Take a look:
Of course it may not be so easy to "just stay home." The…
revere | October 16, 2009Via Crof's blog (invaluable, as always) I learned of the decision of Massachusetts state health officials to vaccinate state prisoners before the rest of the population:
Prison officials warn that inmates could quickly spread the flu if not inoculated -- particularly those in high-risk groups such as AIDS patients.
Middlesex Sheriff James DiPaola told the Boston Herald that prisons were the perfect flu "breeding ground."
DiPaola dealt with riots in a Cambridge jail when rumors of swine flu spread there. (AP)
State legislators are already complaining that there are other, more vulnerable…
revere | October 15, 2009I've been asked a number of times why I am bothering to get both flu vaccines this year (the seasonal flu trivalent vaccine and the swine flu vaccine when it is my turn). I am in the older age group (last in line for swine flu vaccine) and it is my group that is hit the least hard from the swine flu virus. But there are a lot of us and we're still being hit. I don't know if I will be one of the unlucky few in my age group who draws the short straw or not, and I'd rather get vaccinated with an acceptably safe vaccine than take a chance in winding up having a machine breathe for me or not…
revere | October 13, 2009The online publication of three papers and a commentary yesterday in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA; free access, links at bottom of post) provides some further data on what demand for critical care resources might be from the current swine flu pandemic. One paper reports on the Mexican experience, where mortality seemed unusually high but where access to services may have made the outcome worse. The papers from Canada are perhaps most pertinent to what might be experienced in the US and Europe. It appears that in terms of demand for ICU beds, the first wave from last…
revere | October 5, 2009In an earlier post I said I opposed mandatory vaccination for adults (but not for children), the one exception being for health care workers because they come in contact with people at high risk. My view then was that if you work in a health care institution and won't get vaccinated against flu, then you shouldn't come to work. Now I am re-evaluating my position as a result of some cogent and pragmatic comments from lawyer-bioethicist George Annas, professor of health law, bioethics and human rights at Boston University School of Public Health, and author of "The Rights of Patients." I know…
revere | October 4, 2009This is about a paper published Friday. The post is long because the paper provides practical advice on a problem of importance, the issue of school closures. The advice is based on data and could be implemented at the level of a school district or even a single school without requiring a lot of money or effort. It's not cost free, but could probably be done with existing personnel and resources. The fact that it would be grounded in empirical evidence makes a decision to keep a school open or to close it much easier to defend. It would not be arbitrary or a guess. Improvements in the…
revere | September 25, 2009There's hopeful news about the possibility of an effective HIV/AIDS vaccine and a weird story from Canada about "preliminary results" saying that you are more at risk from swine flu if you get the seasonal flu vaccine. With flu, anything is possible, but that is more than a little counterintuitive and strikes me as unlikely. Nowhere else has reported a similar experience. Since we don't know the methods or the data or the limitations or much of anything else that could allow us to consider how much to weigh this as evidence I won't say any more about it.
While we do write about vaccines here…