KC Buzz Blog asks the question, having observed:
Claire McCaskill and Jim Talent will probably spend $18 million, combined, on TV before Tuesday -- yet their race is roughly where it was a year ago.
Nancy Boyda, by contrast, hasn't spent a lot on TV -- but has pulled close to Rep. Jim Ryun in Kansas 02.
Perhaps some of the cognitive scientists here at Sb will take up this answer from an academic perspective, but I've put some specific comments on those two races below the fold.
Two things make a difference here. First, Claire McCaskill just finished running for Governor and holds statewide office, people already know her, and the advertising on the air in Missouri isn't giving people a lot of new information about her. Those who like her, like her, those who don't, don't.
Nancy Boyda is less well-known. She ran for the same seat two years ago, but did so in a year when the focus was not on House elections. The DCCC dictated strategy for the campaign was intensely negative then and failed to define Nancy personally. That made it easy for the Ryun camp to plant doubts about her character, and her campaign never really kicked into high gear. This campaign's ads are almost all positive ads. Most are man-on-the-street spots, in which regular people explain what they like about Boyda, and what they don't like about Ryun. These ads are personal and do a lot to introduce us to Nancy.
The other difference between the ad strategies is that the Talent/McCaskill race is being fought on broadcast TV, while Boyda's ad buy is on cable. I suspect she's got almost as much air time as McCaskill does, but it's on the cheaper cable stations. And that's good because it saves money and it targets only the 2nd District. Plus, as documented in Crashing the Gate by Jerome Armstrong and Markos Moulitsas, the broadcast stations reach less than 40% of households during prime time, down from 90 percent in the 1970s. The other 60% are watching cable, and that's who Boyda is reaching.
Smaller, smarter ad buys and ads that actually give people new information about a candidate can work. Doing the same old thing doesn't.
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Why is Boyda doing so well? Because she isn't Ryun.
Does Ryun know what he is doing or is he just doing what he is told?
In 1200 votes over two years, Ryun voted against the party leadership in less than 2% of the his votes. What are the odds that Kansas? interests differed from Tom DeLay?s only 2% of the time. A study of bi-partisanship conducted by mathematicians at Georgia Tech named Ryun one of the six most partisan of all 435 US Representatives.
In his need to please the Washington elite, did Ryun understand that he was voting to cut student aid by $12.7 billion -- the biggest cut of its kind in history?
Did Ryun, who accepted $31,777 from Tom DeLay?s discredited ARMPAC, realize that his vote on the House ethics rules (proposed by the same indicted Majority Leader) actually weakened ethics rules? Aren?t Kansans for stronger ethics?
When we elect Representatives to Congress, don?t we expect them to exercise good judgment, a strong voice for Kansas, and bi-partisan efforts to find solutions? In Ryun, apparently we have forfeited all three.
I?m voting for Nancy Boyda because she will actually know what she is doing. She will be knowledgeable, independent, and bi-partisan. She will use good judgment and carefully consider how her votes will affect us in Kansas. It will be a nice change.
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At least some of Boyda's ads were purchased on over-the-air stations in Topeka. (I've seen them.) I think this only reinforces your point about the wisdom of Boyda's TV strategy. I imagine broadcast ads in Topeka are cheaper than KC and reach more KS-2 voters per dollar spent.
Did you see a Boyda ad or did you see the DCCC spot (the one that starts with soldiers)? I wouldn't be surprised if they hadn't bought at least some broadcast time, but I only remember seeing the DCCC ad on broadcast and the Boyda spots on cable.
Sorry for the late reply, but it was the Boyda, low budget, person-on-the-street spots. Paid by the Boyda campaign, not DCCC.