Ask a Science Blogger: On July 5, 1996, Dolly the sheep became the first successfully cloned mammal. Ten years on, has cloning developed the way you expected it to?...
Yes. More or less exactly as I expected, in fact. So there.
Oh, an explanation...
The original cloning effort was an early breakthrough, it was looking likely that mammalian cloning would work, what remained was "engineering", but the team that did it stumbled on a crude but successful approach.
After a breakthrough like that, people get overexcited and start making wild short term predictions, none of which come true. People then get overpessimistic and decide that it was all hype and that there is nothing to it, so there is systematic underestimation of the medium term development potential.
What happens in the meantime is a lot of different labs plug away at the nitty-gritty details and figure out incremental improvements in technique, until suddenly cloning is "easy" and mainstream.
We're seeing a little bit of marginal applications of cloning - favourite pets, race horses, high productivity livestock etc. This will accelerate, until there is a lot of cloning - mammal cloning of course, we've been cloning plants for yonks.
There will be subtle hurdles, eg I haven't heard a definitive solution to the shortening of telomeres and premature aging; since that is something clearly soluble in principle, and has other potentially interesting therapeutic applications, it is the sort of problem that likely will be solved.
There will be a sequence of ethical quandries, setbacks - including probably some herd die back as particular clones turn out, surprise, to be all vulnerable to some strain of bug - but progress in applied cloning will accelerate and overtake our expectations faster than we now project.
People, including pundits, tend to make linear projections; thus they overestimate short term progress, underestimate medium term progress and get long term progress completely wrong, depending on whether the social phenomenon hits a logistic growth limit or continues exponentially on the time scale of issue.
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