Just caught Bush's American Legion speech on CNN.
He just gave Iran an ultimatum. His Sept 19th speech to the UN will be interesting.
I am seriously concerned that the US is likely to make a unilateral pre-emptive strike on Iranian nuclear facilities and armed forces in late September. I'd now put the odds at over 50%, maybe as high as 2/3.
That would not be amusing.
The US is talking itself into a nasty trap - if they back down after escalating the rhetoric against Iran, then the US policy is severly weakened. If they attack then the US is likely to face severely negative consequences for an extensive period. So the only way out is for Iran to back down, yet there appears to be no leverage on them to do so, and no actual effort by the US to gain such leverage.
PS see here for an interesting Royal Institute report on Iran and foreign relations
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If'n they did, do you think it would help or hurt the Republicans in the November elections? War traditionally brings a nation together politically, unless it drags on too long, or unless people start to realize that they are being manipulated with FUD. has Bush drawn from that well too often?
I wouldn't put anything past Bush, but even he must understand the consequences of military action against Iran. Virtually everyone who knows anything about this situation thinks it would be a catastrophe. For one thing, it would be very difficult to locate and destroy all the facilities. It would force Iran into even more secrecy and even more hidden and attack-resistance facilities, and it would cement Iranian hatred and desire for revenge on the US. It would also stir even more anger against the US among other muslims, even if their own governments secretly applauded the action. The US has neither the resources nor the will to invade and occupy yet another, even larger muslim nation. It would almost certainly make North Korean even more fearful of US action and therefore make it an even wilder card than it already is. It is simply so unspeakably bad an idea that I cannot believe even Bush would do it.