The Mathematics of Terrorism

Ok, so I'm a bit behind on my reading, but Prof Johnson's group at OCCF came up with an intriguing study last year conjecturing that terrorist attacks follow Salpeter's Law.

see semi-technical article in PhysOrg or the pop article in the Grauniad

Richardson had found a similar law for the size of conventional warfare, but Johnson et al have now shown similar statistics apply to terrorist acts, with the frequency of attacks of a given size scaling roughly as t-2.3 -- -2.5

In a further refinement, instantly recognizable to all stellar theorists, the slope is flatter, but normalization lower in developed nations - big attacks are overall less frequent, but relatively more frequent in nations that present large targets. There is also some conjecture on the time evolution of the distribution of attacks, and how that could be used to understand the nature of evolving conflicts, with particular examples of Colombia and Iraq. Hey, maybe there is a quantitative measure to distinguish between mere "terrorism" and "civil war".

The analogy to star formation on poor stellar associations vs rich clusters is fascinating, probably meaningless, and yet may be a signature of underlying similar physics; namely self-organized hierarchical structuring of discrete clumps competing for fixed resources, whether that be the inter-stellar medium of a molecular cloud undergoing internal fragmentation, or the resources available for terrorists.

I guess the reassuring thing is that the integral converges in the high N limit...

Tags

More like this

and we are back from lunch J. Johnson (LANL) talking about supermassive stars as seeds for supermassive black holes - going to be getting more technical supermassive star has a gas mass ~ 105 solar masses (as oppesed to few hundredish solar masses for standard Pop III stars that could provide low…
There are 22 new articles in PLoS ONE today. As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with…
I'm skeptical of these sorts of psychological models - an important part of the terrorist strategy is to not have a coherent strategy - but it's certainly a noble effort: Imagine that we had a mathematical formula that could be applied to Israel's enemies to predict their course of action? Prof.…
Since its founding in 1987, the Pacific Institute has worked to understand the links between water resources, environmental issues, and international security and conflict. This has included early analytical assessments (such as a 1987 Ambio paper  and this one from the journal Climatic Change) of…

So, we shouldn't be worried about being taken out by a few big attacks, it's the far more numerous small incidents that do the real harm!

Formally, yes. But since the measure is fatalities and the field is quantised, there is a natural lower limit cutoff that eliminatesd infrared divergences and keeps the whole integral convergent.