NASA admin Mike Griffin noted that deciding the current climate is the best is a rather arrogant position.
Ok, there is a point there. But, we're making a choice whether we like it or not, so what should we choose?.
Not choosing is also a choice, and one no less arrogant.
The preindustrial mean atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration was about 275 ppm, plus or minus maybe 5%, with rare intermittent spikes which drew down rapidly, probably due to volcanic injections followed by oceanic and biospheric re-equilibrium.
The current concentration just went over 375 ppm and is trending inexorably up.
The current increase is anthropic, due to burning of fossil fuels, currently oil is a significant contributor but in the long run it is really the coal that matters, that is where a lot of buried accessible carbon is, along with the temptation to use it.
We're headed for doubling of CO2 sometime later this century - exactly when depends on demographics, economic trends and technology development.
The crude mean impact on the global climate due to this change is a small change in the mid/near infra-red atmospheric opacity, which will lead to a small fractional change in the mean effective temperature of the Earth. To order 1.5 (direct forcing plus water vapour feedback) this will be about a 1% effect, or a change of about 2.5 K in mean temperature. Empirical data suggests the net second order effects will be slightly positive and the net response will be more like 3-3.5 K.
More interestingly, the effect is heterogenous (eg night time vs day time warming and pole vs tropical warming); even more interestingly the there will be strong but poorly quantified perturbation on secondary climate indicators - like precipitation patterns.
If we extrapolate further, we're headed for ~ 800 ppm CO2 in the near historical future (going higher relies on very unreliable estimates of future coal recovery). That is getting to the "you have got to be kidding me, oh my god we're all going to die" territory, with significant qualitative climate change to states not seen for tens of millions of years.
Seriously, it would cause major climate shifts, likely significant macrofaunal extinctions, probably major human impacs (ie LOTs of people dying) and major economic impacts.
We can stop this.
I don't think it is feasible to stop short of 400 ppm, unless there is a catastrophic human dieback in the near future. Doubling is probably inevitable.
Natural drawdown timescales seem to be of order 100,000 years, from the record of CO2 spikes in the last 30 million years or so.
We could make a serious effort to draw down the peak CO2 ourselves.
BUT, whaterver we do, we are making a choice, and it is an arrogant choice no matter what.
Yes, slamming the brakes on fossil fuel burning as a matter of overriding priority is a choice, an arrogant choice, and one which "decides for others" what is best.
But, so is the status quo - every gram of fossil fuel burned is an implicit, and very arrogant choice about what is best, not just for you, but for everyone else.
And this is a regime where microeconomics does badly - the marginal cost to me of filling up the car or leaving the light on does not reflect the medium term externalities, and not at all the long term risk of catastrophe.
So... what do we do?
Well, we can turn the question around: where do we want to stop?
Drawdown is possible but slow, and doing it too rapidly could be as catastropic as the rapid increase; a big part of the hazard is not just change, but rapid change.
So, the peak matters (we're going to hit the peak fast compared to any relevant timescale).
Now, I don't think we want to go back to the Eocene - just too different, too wild.
Older climates than the eocene are poor indicators, because the continental topography was too different and at some point the Sun signifcantly cooler.
But, do we really want to go back to 275 ppm or lower? I'm not sure the deep Pleistocene glaciations were that interesting.
And the miocene was just too boring
We can go back to the Pliocene
but where we are headed is the mid-Oligocene
Is that what we want? And who are "we" anyway? Suburban americanites? Rural bangladeshis? Icelandic sheep farmers?
Even locally there might be some dissent - the southwest US residents might view the prospects summer highs of 50+C and decadal droughts somewhat differently from northeasterners contemplating mild winter nights and Virginia-like winters; or is it increased precipitation and small temperature changes in the southwest, combined with hurricane tracks and Florida like summers in the northeast...?
Part of our problem is that we do not have enough information to decide in detail. A good initial approach to that problem, one might think, would be to gather as much information as possible (as opposed to, you know, cutting down on the information gathering...).
Secondly, we can think about slowing down the process as much as "feasible" - to have more time to make a rational decision.
What we can not really do anymore is continue as we have, and the real problem will be coal, we have to stop burning it on a time scale of a small number of decades (or at least cut back by at least an order of magnitude) or we will have made the most arrogant decision of all.
There are two additional issues - one is that we can change our minds, for all practical purposes, most of our decisions are non-binding on the future generations. Except in so far as some choices we make can eliminate the range of choices they have. It is possible that 60 years from now a deliberate choice will be made to slowly ramp up CO2 concentrations to 550 +/- 20 ppm and leave them there for a millennium or ten, but if we have already forced it up to 800 ppm by then, that will not be much of a choice.
There is a second trap there, which is that we can not incur an excessive opportunity cost to preserve the future choices - crudely put, if we freeze to death because we wouldn't burn coal, then we won't have grandchildren to make choices about whether to burn the coal we left.
But, the opportunity cost evaluation must be weighted by the risks and uncertainties - economists tend to assume zero or narrow spreads in long term risks and focus on the short term costs; while environmentalists tend to focus on poorly quantified long term risks to the exclusion of very real short term costs.
As a culture we must somehow figure out how to rationale balance these issues and make rational and modest choices, because if we don't we will be making the irrational and arrogant choices and they may yet kill us all.
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Dear Steinn,
saying that forcing the world to preserve my particular current temperature is equally arrogant as not forcing the world to do so is equivalent to saying that sending Jews to gas chambers is as arrogant as deciding that they we won't send them there.
Are you joking? I think that you are losing your common sense completely.
Griffin says that if someone claims that his environment's temperature in 2007 is the one that all people must work to save, as opposed to temperatures higher by 1 C or 2 C or anything else, then it is arrogant because he promotes himself into the ultimate benchmark how the world should work and look like while the temperatures of others in other centuries and other places don't have the privilege to dictate the eternal temperature.
If he doesn't promote himself into this benchmark, then it is by definition non-arrogant. I don't think there can be any rational debate with a person who disagrees with THIS basic fact.
Best
Lubos
No, I'm sorry, that analogy is completely nonsensical.
Given a choice of starting out with an undeveloped planet for which we could dial-up-a-climate would be case where Griffin's statement would make sense. The problem we have is enormous pre-existing investment in infrastructure. All kinds of things like coastal structures that assume sea-level will not change by much. And bridges,
dams, irrigation schemes, local knowledge of farming etc, etc, all this
stuff was built with the assumption that the climate won't be much different than the recent past.
An example of the potential cost of infrastructure being out of sync with conditions was New Orleans. Essentially any significant change of climate will have very expensive consequences.
My, we hit Godwin's law rather quickly, didn't we?
It's also nice to see a reasoned approach to the problem as opposed to the ostrich argument or the "we're all gonna die in 50 years" argument.
It seems less arrogant to choose that the CO2 levels close to pre-industrial than to do nothing and hope for the best.
Good point on not moving too quickly, though I doubt that's a big problem...
Ok, the analogy you chose is deliberately inappropriate and emotionally inflammatory, but lets play this game:
Let us say that you are a senior US administration official, and you receive data that a lot of jews are being killed, or maybe collected to be killed in the future, but the data is indirect or statistically uncertain but indicative.
You can choose to do nothing - after all, it would be arrogant for you to decide proactively to do otherwise; or you could bomb the alleged sites immediately, except you know that would definitely kill some jews, and you don't know for sure what or where things are going on.
Or, you could start to do what you can locally - like open your borders to refugees, permit transit of refugees through your territories to neutral countries, while you gather more information, maybe make some noise about what you suspect but can't prove, and prepare to bomb raillines, drop supplies and send a tank division or three down a different route.
Each path is a choice, there is an advocate for each choice, all are arrogant to some extent, and all have some uncertain future consequences.
But you want to do nothing.