I just noticed curious language in the DoE Senate Appropriations Committe statement on JDEM
From AIP's FYI #66
"Joint Dark Energy Mission. - The Committee has consistently urged
the Department to move forward toward launch of the Joint Dark
Energy Mission [JDEM]. Unfortunately, in spite of the Committee's
support and the Department's own scientific facilities planning
process, this has not happened. The Department's fiscal year 2008
request for JDEM will cripple the Department's capacity to move
forward either in partnership with NASA or as a single agency
mission in 2008. Unfortunately, this budget reduction may also
discourage international collaborations interested in a near term
launch - collaborations which could significantly reduce the United
States' costs. The Committee reasserts its strong support of JDEM,
directs DOE to down select from among the three JDEM competitors
immediately following the decision of the NRC committee, and
provides $7,000,000 above the combined requests for JDEM, SNAP and
other Dark Energy research programs to fund the competition and to
aggressively ramp up activities focused on a launch in 2014."
Now, either they know something about the NRC Beyond Einstein committee selection that we do not, or this is severe wishful thinking.
JDEM as a NASA mission concept has not selected a design.
The NRC committee will recommend one mission for flight and one for the pipeline in september, out of five missions/mission concepts. So three of the candidate missions or mission concepts will effectively by canceled in their present form (they may fly eventually if recompeted or resurrected in better budget times, but probably with major redesign).
But, even if JDEM has been selected as the lead Beyond Einstein mission, which is possible, I do not see how they can focus on launch in 2014 - the NASA funding ramp seems to preclude this, even if they select a concept immediately for launch - none of the mission concepts seems to be far enough in develpment for an '14 launch, with anything like the currently planned budget profile.
Maybe 2017 at the current rate. The SNAP home page talks about four year build time after selection, so if they get a start in 2009 they could theoretically do it if all goes to plan, a design is locked in immediately, and funding is unconstrained... fwiw the '07 NASA budget shows no real money in the BE line before 2010.
So what is going on? Wishful thinking or a glimpse of the decision making process?
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I have to wonder if this is purely political.
Some half-notions flitting through politicians' brains, along the lines of:
Hillary = Pink Energy
Obama = Dark Energy
Bloomberg = Star (of David) matter.
No disrespect to black Jewish women intended. Some disrespect to Congresscritters IS intended.
Here's my prediction: JDEM as a NASA mission (yea verily, whatever Beyond Einstein mission comes first) will not get useful funding until JWST is on orbit, or at least safely through most of integration and test. Sure, NASA will choose a mission, put out the Announcements of Opportunity for instruments, and even give out Phase A money.
Then JWST will have another billion dollar overrun, and NASA HQ will spend a year's science budget shipping people around the country and back and forth to Europe to numerous cancellation reviews, and the Beyond Einstein mission will be put into a "limbo" phase (which they'll call "bridge"), until JWST is sorted out.
Note: I have no special insight into the future of NASA funding plans, only a sharp, tangy knowledge of its past.
NASA has established an Einstein Probes Office within GSFC's Beyond Einstein Program. This is a step forward.