summer cruises

it has been yonks since I randomly rambled about middle eastern muddles, so why not now...

apparently some interesting things have happened: al-Sadr's Mahdi army has ended its truce and is fighting the Iraqi government and US troops - this could get confusing if the Iranians are backing both Shiite factions, or not.
And the Sunnis are getting peeved at broken promises, hoocoodanode?
At least the Turks seem to be no longer "excursing" into Iraq (how many divisions does it take to change from excursion to intrusion?).

Israelis are claiming that Hizbollah sent fighters (battalion units?) to Basra to fight with al-Sadr. Maybe.
Either way, the Israelis are very tense about Hizbollah mutterings in Lebanon, and they claim Hamas is getting arms, especially short range missiles, through Egypt (which just signed a nuclear power deal with Russia) and that Syria is partly mobilised.

A US merchant vessel heading back from the Persian Gulf apparently shot up an Egyptian boat in the Suez. Egyptians say one dead and two injured and they are annoyed. Having Suez closed to US Navy ships would be inconvenient. Not at that point, yet, and with a bit of diplomacy...

So, where are the carriers...:

the US has 12 - notionally.

The Bush is not ready for operations yet.If life were a novel, the Bush would go operational ahead of schedule and lead a strike, but it is not, and she won't.
Stennis is coming out of Dock and requalifying.
Vinson is refueling, out until 2010+
Eisenhower just went into Dock, not going to float until autumn and can't deploy till '09.

The Kitty Hawk is in Japan, but to be decommissioned this summer. Strangely, she was being refurbished this winter at some expense, and the Nimitz had to do a short cruise to cover Korea/China - Nimitz should be heading back to the US right about now.

The Washington is doing quals before moving to Japan to replace the Kitty Hawk.

The Truman is in the Persian Gulf, half way through a six month deployment.

That leaves 4: Lincoln, Reagan, Enterprise and Roosevelt.

Lincoln just quietly left harbour mid-March, picked up a carrier wing and headed for the Gulf. She's in Pearl this week, be in the Gulf maybe mid-April at a leisurely pace, where she should overlap with the Truman for a couple of months.

Enterprise just got back from deployment at christmas, should R&R till winter.
Roosevelt is just finishing quals and scheduled to deploy later in '08 - maybe Gulf in mid autumn to replace Lincoln?

The USS Ronald Reagan: tanned, rested and ready. Been back for almost a year, doing exercises in the Pacific and did some fun multi-carrier strike exercises in the last year or two.
Should anyone be up to some mischief, she is the carrier most likely to quietly scoot off somewhere and show up unexpectedly.
That is assuming that the magic minimum number of carriers for serious mischief is three.

Fair number of subs at sea, not exceptionally so, but not at an ebb either.

I can't see anything happening until autumn, unless there is some unexpected provocation... and even then, stirring things up with Iran would just be really, really stupid. But that would not seem to logically preclude it as an option, especially since it might be politically interesting for some parties to stir things up in Sep/Oct.
Some people do think kicking over the table is appropriate when the game does not go to plan.
Other thing to keep an eye on is if Bushehr nuclear reactor goes operational this summer or early autumn as it ought to if the Russians keep their word.

Interesting times we live in.

PS: oh, and someone explained to the Taliban about logistic - 36 petrol tankers blown up in Khyber pass parking lot - apparently most successful of several recent attempts.
Reason the US does not want al-Sadr's militia across the road to Kuwait. The one that passes right by Basra.