NASA: Augustine Reports

"Seeking a Human Spaceflight Program Worthy of a Great Nation"

Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee

The Augustine Report on Human Spaceflight is out: all 157 pages of it (pdf), with press conference starting at 1 pm today.

As you know, Bob, the committee, chaired by Augustine of the Augustine Report, and a list of impressive members (and, as you know, the output of a committee can to some extent be determined by the choice of membership...), had a mission to sort out the unsustainable and vague ambitions for human exploration in space that was the legacy of the last 20 years of ambling.
With the immediate crisis being the imminent retirement of the Shuttle, and the "gap" in capabilities before the planned successor system was ready. There is no money budgeted to operate the Shuttle starting fiscal 2011.

The catch, natch, is that the committee is to present a short menu of options for Pres. Obama to make a decision for NASA's future mission - with a particular review of the current hopelessly underfunded Moon/Mars ambition - without being allowed to make recommendations for going to higher budget.

That doesn't leave much choice, as the current projected NASA budget is not adequate to do any of these - $99 billion over 10 years doesn't buy you what it used to - less than half the bonus package for the top executives of a decent sized investment bank over the decade...

Committee recommends sticking with ISS through 2020 to see if it does anything; not big on the "sunk cost" concept.
The Constellation package of Ares lifters and Orion capsules is over budget and 3+ years late. Committee estimates they won't actually launch until 2017 (honestly, that is pathetic - Constellation is '60s tech - the original Saturn/Apollo was done in less time from scratch).

The committee came up with 5 alternatives

1. Keep going as is but extend STS to 2011 and ISS to 2020.
   This stretches Constellation to 2020 and there is never enough money to get to the Moon.
2. Develop an Ares V lite (about 2/3 of Ares V heavy). Divert funds to ISS in 2016. Buy commercial LEO human services.
   Heavy lift in ~ 2025, Moon after 2030 (25 years to return to the friggin' Moon?!)
3. Add $3 billion per year. Implement the Constellation Vision. Junk ISS.
   Gets back to the Moon in ~ 2025.
4. Add $3 billion per year. Crawl to the Moon direct. Extends ISS to 2020 and Moon in ~ 2025.
   Either do Ares V Lite, or Shuttle-C for heavy lift.
5. Add $3 billion. Extend STS to 2011. Extend ISS to 2020. No dash to Moon.
   Go to NEOs using Orion, then Mars.
   Decide on one of 3 lifter developments: Ares V Lite; heavy EELV To Be Named Later; or, Shuttle-C
   (NEO == Near Earth Objects - asteroid in Earth crossing or grazing orbits - energetically easier than the Moon and interesting for their own sake).
   (EELV - Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles - aka Giant Firecrackers/Modfied Artillery).

"The Committee has found two executable options that comply with the FY 2010 budget profile.
However, neither allows for a viable exploration program.
In fact, the Committee find that no plan compatible with the FY 2010 budget profile permits human exploration to continue in any meaningful way.

The Committee further finds that it is possible to conduct a viable exploration program with a budget rising to about $3 billion annually in real purchasing power above the FY 2010 budget profile..." (p. 17).

So: time to pee or get off the pot, as they say.

What remains to be found is whether Science Mission Directorate is still coupled to Exploration Mission Directorate; and if so, whether the coupling is direct and linear, or anti-correlates.

Taking ALL the Science money would in fact cover the Exploration shortfall.
Heh.

Historically, when Exploration has a planned budget increase, Science has tended to increase with it. When Exploration has unplanned shortfalls, Science budgets tend to get raided for "small amounts" - small for EMD, large for SMD...