New and Exciting in PLoS ONE

There are 23 new articles in PLoS ONE today. As always, you should rate the articles, post notes and comments and send trackbacks when you blog about the papers. You can now also easily place articles on various social services (CiteULike, Mendeley, Connotea, Stumbleupon, Facebook and Digg) with just one click. Here are my own picks for the week - you go and look for your own favourites:

Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate Change on a Prairie Plant Community:

Climate change directly affects species by altering their physical environment and indirectly affects species by altering interspecific interactions such as predation and competition. Recent studies have shown that the indirect effects of climate change may amplify or counteract the direct effects. However, little is known about the the relative strength of direct and indirect effects or their potential to impact population persistence. We studied the effects of altered precipitation and interspecific interactions on the low-density tiller growth rates and biomass production of three perennial grass species in a Kansas, USA mixed prairie. We transplanted plugs of each species into local neighborhoods of heterospecific competitors and then exposed the plugs to a factorial manipulation of growing season precipitation and neighbor removal. Precipitation treatments had significant direct effects on two of the three species. Interspecific competition also had strong effects, reducing low-density tiller growth rates and aboveground biomass production for all three species. In fact, in the presence of competitors, (log) tiller growth rates were close to or below zero for all three species. However, we found no convincing evidence that per capita competitive effects changed with precipitation, as shown by a lack of significant precipitation à competition interactions. We found little evidence that altered precipitation will influence per capita competitive effects. However, based on species' very low growth rates in the presence of competitors in some precipitation treatments, interspecific interactions appear strong enough to affect the balance between population persistence and local extinction. Therefore, ecological forecasting models should include the effect of interspecific interactions on population growth, even if such interaction coefficients are treated as constants.

Cowpox Virus Outbreak in Banded Mongooses (Mungos mungo) and Jaguarundis (Herpailurus yagouaroundi) with a Time-Delayed Infection to Humans:

Often described as an extremely rare zoonosis, cowpox virus (CPXV) infections are on the increase in Germany. CPXV is rodent-borne with a broad host range and contains the largest and most complete genome of all poxviruses, including parts with high homology to variola virus (smallpox). So far, most CPXV cases have occurred individually in unvaccinated animals and humans and were caused by genetically distinguishable virus strains. Generalized CPXV infections in banded mongooses (Mungos mungo) and jaguarundis (Herpailurus yagouaroundi) at a Zoological Garden were observed with a prevalence of the affected animal group of 100% and a mortality of 30%. A subsequent serological investigation of other exotic animal species provided evidence of subclinical cases before the onset of the outbreak. Moreover, a time-delayed human cowpox virus infection caused by the identical virus strain occurred in a different geographical area indicating that handling/feeding food rats might be the common source of infection. Reports on the increased zoonotic transmission of orthopoxviruses have renewed interest in understanding interactions between these viruses and their hosts. The list of animals known to be susceptible to CPXV is still growing. Thus, the likely existence of unknown CPXV hosts and their distribution may present a risk for other exotic animals but also for the general public, as was shown in this outbreak. Animal breeders and suppliers of food rats represent potential multipliers and distributors of CPXV, in the context of increasingly pan-European trading. Taking the cessation of vaccination against smallpox into account, this situation contributes to the increased incidence of CPXV infections in man, particularly in younger age groups, with more complicated courses of clinical infections.

Influenza Outbreak during Sydney World Youth Day 2008: The Utility of Laboratory Testing and Case Definitions on Mass Gathering Outbreak Containment:

Influenza causes annual epidemics and often results in extensive outbreaks in closed communities. To minimize transmission, a range of interventions have been suggested. For these to be effective, an accurate and timely diagnosis of influenza is required. This is confirmed by a positive laboratory test result in an individual whose symptoms are consistent with a predefined clinical case definition. However, the utility of these clinical case definitions and laboratory testing in mass gathering outbreaks remains unknown. An influenza outbreak was identified during World Youth Day 2008 in Sydney. From the data collected on pilgrims presenting to a single clinic, a Markov model was developed and validated against the actual epidemic curve. Simulations were performed to examine the utility of different clinical case definitions and laboratory testing strategies for containment of influenza outbreaks. Clinical case definitions were found to have the greatest impact on averting further cases with no added benefit when combined with any laboratory test. Although nucleic acid testing (NAT) demonstrated higher utility than indirect immunofluorescence antigen or on-site point-of-care testing, this effect was lost when laboratory NAT turnaround times was included. The main benefit of laboratory confirmation was limited to identification of true influenza cases amenable to interventions such as antiviral therapy. Continuous re-evaluation of case definitions and laboratory testing strategies are essential for effective management of influenza outbreaks during mass gatherings.