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Effects of Washington DC gun ban

By tlambert on February 8, 1994.

Joe B. Simpson said:

The New England Journal of Medicine. 1991 Dec 5. 325 (23). pp
1615-1620. Special Article: Effects Of Restrictive Licensing Of
Handguns On Homicide And Suicide In The District Of Columbia.
Loftin-Colin. McDowall-David. Wiersema-Brian. Cottey-Talbert-J.

Note that the study showed an immediate decline in homicide and
suicide rates after enacting the ban.

Which is a LIE, because the suicide RATE in DC was the same after
the ban as it was before the ban, though the rate in surrounding
areas not affected by the ban fell 10%. The GUN suicide rate in DC
fell more than the GUN suicide rate in the other areas, but the fact
that the overall suicide rate in DC remained constant illustrates
perfectly the substitution principal.

So that we can see who is lying, here are the changes in the rates
(data from Appendix B of Loftin et al's article):

DC (age adjusted rate per 100k population)
                 before after
Suicide          11.4   10.5
Gun suicide       4.1    3.5
Non-gun suicide   7.3    7.0

Maryland-Virginia (rate per 100k pop)
                 before after
Suicide          10.6   10.0
Gun suicide       5.2    5.0
Non-gun suicide   5.4    5.0

This certainly does NOT support the substitution hypothesis, which
predicts an increase in DC non-gun suicides to compensate for the
decrease in gun suicides. The decrease in overall rates was also
larger in DC than in the surrounding areas, falsifying your other
claim.

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