For reasons similar to those given by Tim Dunlop, Jason Soon and John Quiggin, I'll be voting Labor in the election today. Not that it makes a difference, since I live in Kingsford Smith, a safe Labor seat.
I hope that I'm wrong, but I don't think that Labor will manage to win the election. I expect that there will be a small swing against the government, but that their vote will hold up in the marginal seats where the government has been raining money down, and they will hold onto to enough seats to stay in power.
Update: Howard has been returned, as I expected. There was even a small swing to the government, which I didn't expect. This is bad news for Australian gun owners.
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This election day post is going to be continuously updated until the winner becomes more-or-less official. Tomorrow we'll have one more politics post as something of a benediction, and then mercifully back to the physics. Updates will appear at the top of the post, so feel free to refresh…
At the moment, this is a nail biter. There is a theory that a strong showing by one party at the top of the ticket brings along those lower down. However, that theory does not apply this year for several reasons. I think it works better for Republicans than for Democrats, for many the top of the…
John Quiggin writes about the culture warmongers:
Third, and most importantly, the factoid-based, point-scoring, style of argument that goes with the culture wars eventually leads to complete insulation from factual reality. Any proposition, no matter how ridiculous, can be defended in this way,…
I always get in arguments with mathematically-inclined people about whether to vote or not. The mathematically-inclined point out very reasonably that the chances of your vote being decisive are perishingly slim.
(These mathematics are explained clearly in this PBS video by economist Gordon…
"This is bad news for Australian gun owners."
I'd say the rest of us also have reason to be worried, especially if Howard manages to clean up the Senate too...
Well, as a gun owner I was disappointed that John Howard didn't get turfed. However as a responsible person I was cheered that the government was not turned over to the irresponsibles and politically correct drones who appear to write the left's policies!
And best of all, the Australian Democrats took a caning. This party typifies what the whole gun debate is about - moral posturing as a way of life.
Come off it, Chris. You think that Howard's promises to spend even more than Labor on bribes was responsible?
Hell no! You are right - the pork-barrelling was utterly nauseating.
But my perception is that people saw Howard's pork as a straight-out, whatever-it-takes bribe, mentally separate to the overall expectation of Liberal performance.
It started months ago with the baby bonus. Puke, but damn that money came in handy!
Maybe the difference was that we had some of Howard's bribe in hand, whereas Latham's was just promises so far. But IMNVHO, Labor sent a clear message that their emphasis would be on victim and mates politics, opportunities for those who trendies care for, and maybe unions, rather than for all. I really had to hold my nose to consider Labor, but I think thats where my vote ended up.
Excellent news! Howard is back!
What a great day. Hope the noisy left-wing rabble finally get the clue that their views are not representative for Australia.
"The noisy left-wing rabble" are representative of at least 48% of Australia. If the "noisy left-wing rabble" had gotten slightly over 2% more of the vote and won the election would you conclude that all your political and oscial views were worthless, irrelevant and out-of-touch with most Australians?
But surely, Shirley, with Howard controlling the HoRs and, likely, the Senate, "responsibility" is pretty far from what we can expect?
Nobody --- except the odd partisan shill --- is truly represented wholly by one party or another. It is bad news for everyone if a single party gets complete control of the government. Even our political friends require some oversight, Chris!