Pew has an excellent survey up about the state of religion and religiosity in China. There isn't a lot of good data out of China on this topic for obvious reasons. One of the phenomenon of recent years in the West has been the perception among evangelicals that China is the scene of mass conversions to Christianity. Because of the lack of data there are speculations of hundreds of millions of crypto-Christians; and some in the media repeat these claims rather uncritically (Jesus in Beijing: How Christianity is Transforming China and Changing the Global Balance of Power is an example of the power of anecdote synthesized with the hope of evangelicals). It is almost certainly true that the "official" numbers presented by the Chinese government probably lowball the number of Christians, but this survey (skewed toward urban areas, where one assumes Christianity might be more prominent as it is in other East Asian nations) yields a number in the 2-4% range. Higher than what the Chinese government reports, but multiplicatively, not by orders of magnitude. But let's take a closer look at the data.
From the 2007 survey,
Buddhist - 12%
Christian - 2%
Muslim - < 1%
Taoist - < 1%
None - 81%
Refused - 5%
Does this surprise you? It shouldn't. Even in "hyper-religious" South Korea only about half of the population avows a religion. One of the differences between East Asia and much of the rest of the world is the relative weakness of institutional religion in terms of securing exclusive access to believers. Patronization of multiple religious institutions and lack of explicit identification is often the norm; not the exception (e.g., most Japanese avowing both Shinto and Buddhist identities). It seems likely that Muslims are underrepresented in this sample because of the geography (skewed toward eastern China), while I would not be surprised if there was widespread underreporting of religious identificaiton because of the state's customary hostile attitude towards belief.
But lack of religion does not necessarily mean a purely naturalistic worldview. Here are the beliefs in various supernatural phenomena....
Fortune - 40%
Fate - 29%
Buddha - 8%
Yama (Lord of Death) - 2%
Jade Emperor - 2%
Immortal soul - 8%
Ghosts - 6%
Supernatural or immortal beings - 5%
Elves or witches - 2%
Believe in at least one of the above - 60%
Believe in none of the above or don't know - 40%
I think you can look at this from various angles. One the one hand compared to the gods-intoxicated cultures of Europe, Islam and South Asia, a place like China is relatively free of divine hauntings. But relatively is the key. Even after decades of state encouraged atheism and scientism the majority of Han Chinese still accept some sort of "superstitious" belief. On the other hand, China has traditionally been weak in terms of the monopoly of any given institutional religion since the persecutions of "foreign" religions (this included Buddhism) during the 9th century, and I suspect that this state will remain the case. Yet there is also a broad well of belief in diffuse supernatural phenomena, as has also been the case among most Chinese for most of history.
Finally, in terms of not forcing things into one's preconceptions, I think one should be careful of this part of the report summary:
There is some indirect survey evidence that suggests the existence of a potentially large number of unaffiliated, independent Christians. For example, the 2005 Pew survey found that 6% of the Chinese public expresses belief in the possible existence of "God/Jesus" (in Chinese Shangdi/Yesu), a rough equivalent of saying the "Christian God." This is more than 50% higher than the number of people who self-identify as a Christian in the same poll. The 6% estimate is closer to the estimates of China's total Christian population made by religious demographers and researchers.
I think one might also find that a substantial number of Hindus would "believe in Jesus," specifically, that Jesus is a manifestation of the Godhead. That does not entail that these individuals are Christians. The point here is that monotheistic exclusivism isn't a good standard when ascertaining the distribution of beliefs in East Asia, and on the margins it doesn't even characterize all believers in the West. Additionally, my research on the ethography of Chinese crypto-Christians suggests that some of these groups may identify as Christians, but they are likely to be very heterodox. The movement which spearheaded the Taiping Rebellion is an example of what I'm thinking of (or, the Unification Church). So belief in God or Jesus might not mean what one would infer from it in our own cultural circumstances....
Note: There have been a few other surveys I've seen, and they tend to back up the broad outline of what Pew is reporting, which is why I tend to accept its veracity. Please remember that in East Asia urban populations tend to be more strongly affiliated with institutional religions, so I don't expect that there is a broad reservoir of religiosity in rural regions that this survey is missing.
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i'm having trouble with this last sentence in relation to China 'urban populations tend ot be more strongly affiliated with institutional religions...'
for institutional religions this may be dead on, but for religious belief in general i'm not sure what to do with it.
it's precisely in the rural regions that the traditional ancestor worship has the greatest hold in China. Household shrines are not common in the cities, but very common in the rural areas...
for institutional religions this may be dead on, but for religious belief in general i'm not sure what to do with it.
yes. i worded it awkwardly....
Elves eh? I'm a telling ya, this Lord of the Rings worship is getting out of hand.
One of the consequences of a power shift to Asia, that is rarely mentioned in the press, is that Asia lacks the Abrahamic religions preoccupation with the middle east and with the genesis creation myth.
I suspect a global shift away from the wests foocus on the middle east will be as significant as more the widely predicted economic and cultural shifts that are accompanying the rise in Asian power centers
In Taiwan it was common for people whose religious belief and practice were vague and weak to be strongly superstitious.
Superstition seems more naturalistic and less personalistic, and in fatalistic forms (e.g., some people are fated to be unhappy) it's a bit like determinism. I don't believe that I've ever seen superstitions interpreted in moralized terms, except the way you say that someone's stupid for ignoring a "Beware of the dog" sign. That is, people who flout superstition and are punished are unwary, foolhardy, and show bad judgment, but they're not being punished for a sin.
Some of the early forms of naturalism and determinism are barely distinguishable from naturalistic superstition. E.G., "People who live in low lying places are torpid and sluggish, whereas mountaineers are lively and alert", or the various ways of identifying certain foods with specific medical conditions and states of mind and character in Hippocrates and Chinese medicine.
And naturalistic fatalistic determinism can give metaphysical comfort and certainty just as much as the Muslim's "Everything is written" can. Marcus Aurelius seems science-like because he's fairly naturalistic, but his mechanistic order actually seems quite wishful when you look at it closely.
A Taiwanese friend of mine, who claimed not to be religious at all, nevertheless wore a large (1" x 1.5") jade Buddha pennant around his neck at all times - even when playing sports- and said he had worn it continuously for over 30 years.
I asked him if he were Buddhist, and he said no, that he wore it for good luck?!
Anecdotally, my impression of Christianity in Japan is that the government systematically undercounts. Japanese are very wary of reporting any religious beliefs. It has been a couple generations since the government actively persecuted religious minorities, but that has been the general state there for centuries.
My understanding is that Chinese history is similar, and of course the current government actively persecutes any heterodox belief. If I were Chinese I would be pretty cagey about my beliefs too.
Anecdotally, my impression of Christianity in Japan is that the government systematically undercounts.
probably not since public opinion surveys show the same data (and the vast majority also hold very nominal shinto or buddhist affiliation despite weak to no belief). also, christian evangelical groups often complain how unreceptive the japanese are (most japanese christians are part of mainline or catholic churches). there are social pressures to not become christian, but the complaints of evangelical groups are the most telling.
The Taiping Rebellion always strikes me as one of the more fantastically odd events of history. Most Americans I describe it to think I'm making it up. And these are well-educated, elite university, Americans. The whole younger-brother-of-Jesus thing is weird enough, but then to have the Ever Victorious Army commanded by some American soldier-of-fortune. It sounds like a bad pulp novel.
With the British Empire, I guess Brits are used to reading of countrymen gallivanting about in various odd places during the 19th century. For an American, it sounds distinctly odd to read about an American in 1860 commanding an Army in China.
The Taiping Rebellion always strikes me as one of the more fantastically odd events of history.
not chinese history. see an lushan or yellow turban.
The Rev. Moon claims to be the older brother of Jesus. He's a powerful example of the way money can buy orthodoxy. He makes the Mormons, Adventists, Witnesses, and Christian Scientists look orthodox.
Razib thinks that theology is rather irrelevant, but there is a consensus about the trinity and Christology that includes all Catholics, all Russian and Greek Orthodox (and related churches) and the vast majority of Protestant churches (all of them, if you define Protestant theologicall rather than historically.) Eastern Christians (Ethiopian, Syrian, Armenian, and South Indian) are somewhat outside this orthodoxy, as are Witness and Adventists. The Mormons are still farther out, but the Rev. Moon is in batshit territory. No other recognized Christian sect gives its founder priority over Christ.
Eastern Christians (Ethiopian, Syrian, Armenian, and South Indian) are somewhat outside this orthodoxy, as are Witness and Adventists
the eastern non-chalcedonians (monophysites) are not as far out as witness or mormons (who reject nicene christianity). the papacy has attempted to mend fences with the monophysites, just as it has with the eastern orthodox. don't know about the 'nestorian' church of the east (which is mostly outside of the middle east now). but i think these groups should all be bracketed out from the neo-christian movements like witness or mormonism, as they are part of the fissions of the early years of christianity, not deviations from the western christian tradition recently....