I've been reading up on the field of cliodynamics recently. But despite the importance of broader macrosocial dynamics, the suicide of the Anthrax scare suspect is a reminder that proximately one determined person can sway the actions of nations....
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Real life work has once again stepped in, so I won't have the Helicobacter posts up until next week. However, in the meantime, a big story has broken regarding the 2001 anthrax attacks--a potential suspect, and his suicide before he could be arrested. Will we ever actually get to the bottom of…
With all that's going on we sometimes forget about all that went on, even all that went on recently. Like "solving" the anthrax attacks case. Fortunately the New York Times reporters on the case are still on the case. And so is Congress:
A month after the F.B.I. declared that an Army scientist was…
My dear scibling and fellow big-nose European Bora, over at the one Sblog that comes before Aard in the alphabetical list, has "tagged me with a meme". That is, he has handed me a coat of chainmail. No, he's sent me a chain letter, with a blogging assignment. I usually don't bother about these…
John Allen Paulos's Innumeracy is one of those classics of the field that I've never gotten around to reading. I've been thinking more about these sorts of issues recently, though, so when the copy I bought a few years ago turned up in our recent book-shuffling, I decided to give it a read.…
I'm tempted to let it stay there and redirect people to a topless Spanish babe, but the link for "cliodynamics" is in error.
Are you sure it was one person?
True, one person died. But that doesn't mean only one person was involved. At least 3 or perhaps 4 people told ABC news that the evidence implicated Iraq. Who were these people?
Let's not be too hasty in calling the case closed.
See Vital unresolved anthrax questions and ABC News for much more.
The previous prime suspect sued for damages and collected, after his case was dropped because there never was any evidence against him. The investigation of Ivins consisted solely of interviewing everyone who knew him, and convincing them the FBI needed just a little more evidence to convict him, so of course this turned all his family, friends, coworkers, neighbors, and the rest of his community against him. This is the modernized high-speed version of Kafka's nightmares. This 'ear poison' destroys all of the target's social support, pulling away every single one, leaving him utterly alone.
He may have committed suicide because his innocence failed to protect him from the government destroying his life. Or he may have been murdered, using the 'suicide' as evidence of guilt, so that the FBI can close the case as 'solved' without ever having a hope of solving it.
Had he actually been guilty, he could have taken refuge in North Korea as soon as the FBI started in on him.
I'll ignore the Ivins example: if you think of events in history as genes, you can see how a single "mutant" event at the right time could change history. Especially if you accept SJG's conclusion that evolution is contingent, with significant path dependency and founder effects.
I argued with Hopefully Anonymous about great man vs materialist theories of history here.
After the sad case of the Atlanta Olympics chap, and then the poor sod who was the first "suspect" for the anthrax attacks, I see no reason - none - to believe the FBI on Ivins. I recall the other Federal Agency that slaughtered all those religious loonies at Waco, and its disgraceful behaviour at Ruby Ridge, and wonder what the hell goes on in your Federal government.