2008 presidential map

The New York Times put together a really nice interactive map for the election...but I thought it would be nice to have the three displays right next to each other instead of just toggling. So below the fold are the:

1) States as allocated to each candidate

2) Counties allocated to each candidate, shaded to illustrate the size of the percentage margin

3) Counties allocated to each candidate, with a bubble representation whose size is proportional to the absolute margin of the winning candidate in that county

i-2ffe41dff47035d8f09f49dab53bc5d4-2008states.jpg

i-ec40edafa270cd7c3eb4e31de933e9dc-2008counties.jpg

i-935c26b05bc7760c1a1b5e8d8b02bcda-2008bubbles.jpg

To some extent, perhaps the Obama coalition could be characterized like so: the great metropolises + the Upper Midwest & New England + the Black Belt & the Hispanic interior. My impression is mostly solidified by the last map, which highlights the enormous vote booms of the major cities. The vast majority of the more sparsely populated regions of the nation are Republican, except for the areas mentioned above. Much of New England and portions of the Upper Midwest are interesting insofar as these are regions of Obama support which are both white and rural (or at least, not necessarily within the orbit of an urban conurbation).

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Not surprising that Texas as a whole favored McCain, but then four of the five counties containing the largest cities (Bexar, Harris, Dallas, and Travis) went to Obama. Also note that most of the border counties (in large part Hispanic and rural), especially in the Lower Rio Grande Valley, favored Obama.

Minnesota by county.

The Northeastern blue area isn't really rural -- it's mining, shipping, tourism, wilderness, and waste. But the other three blue patches are definitely rural.

The most strongly Republican areas are the exurban areas, which I think is the Republican core nationally. Prosperous people who don't like cities.

By John Emerson (not verified) on 05 Nov 2008 #permalink

You can see votes revealing geology in the middle map. Note the pronounced blue band that curves right through the middle of Alabama. That follows the northern limit of Cretaceous seas, which left behind the flat coastal plain when the waters receded. The most productive agriculture, and thus the slaves, were concentrated in that plain. Thus, an arc of happy Obama supporters follows an arc of Cretaceous geology across the state.

Though it's not quite as pronounced, you can see this band of Obama-supporting counties (or less-red counties) continuing into Georgia along this line of contact between Cretaceous sediments to the south and much older rock to the north.

The most strongly Republican areas are the exurban areas

If you look a map of congressional districts in Minnesota, Wisconsin & Colorado, you see the same thing. Blue Core, surrounded by Red, surrounded by Blue.

four of the five counties [in Texas] containing the largest cities (Bexar, Harris, Dallas, and Travis) went to Obama

Texas is right now a minority-majority state, I've been wondering if or when it will move to the Democratic camp. On the one hand, whites are a minority, and it also has great metropolises. On the other hand, it is a Southern state, and Southern Whites are pretty much the only practitioners of White Identity Politics. In Virginia and North Carolina the cities and the minorities handed the state to Obama. In Texas, McCain won by over 10%. Why?

Danny: You do know that North Carolina has a history of Democratic control at the state level right (Governer list, President Pro Tempore list)? Because of this, the ballots were changed in the 60s so that you had to vote for the presidency separate from the rest of the partisan offices, so a straight-party ticket vote does not include a vote for the presidency (evidence).

I am not well-versed on Texas political history and a cursory look over the list of Texas governors shows a mixed history, so I will let others try to explain why Texans vote the way they do.

I will also point out that it isn't necessarily irrational for a state to vote for Democratic control at the state level while voting for Republican control at the national level. Stereotypically Democrats want larger government and Republicans want smaller government. So if you want a strong state government you very may well vote for Democrats at the state level while Republicans at the national level.